A day after sitting out the Commanders’ final preseason game, Brian Robinson Jr. was shot twice in the legs during an attempted carjacking. Robinson had been one of the biggest stories of the preseason thus far, ascending the Washington depth chart from perceived RB3 to potential RB1. He sat out the preseason finale, as many anticipate, as a safety precaution, which suggests a large role in the offense could have been possible for Robinson this season. However, this unfortunate turn of events will alter things. 

A third-round pick in this past spring’s 2022 NFL Draft, the rookie is coming off a big season at Alabama in which he produced 1639 total yards and 16 TDs. Obviously, this latest news will have an impact on his first NFL season. Let’s unpack how to treat the situation as fantasy managers. 

INJURY BACKGROUND

It has been reported that two bullets struck Robinson in his leg during an attempted robbery, but the injuries were reported as non-life-threatening. Reports have said that he was struck by one bullet in the glute and by another bullet in the “knee.” This sounds like it has the potential to be a serious injury situation, especially for an NFL RB. Unique injuries such as this one are often difficult to assess. Non-football injuries are one thing, but the unpredictability of gunshot wounds provides a whole different set of variables that can affect recovery. 

Surprisingly, your author has actually dealt with similar situations to this one in real life during his former coaching career. On more than one occasion, your author has coached high school football players that have been shot before and treated for non-life-threatening injuries. One of those student-athletes was hit with a bullet in the front of his right shoulder. This happened after the first football game of the season. He did return the same season, eight weeks later, to play in the final two games of the season. 

Similarly, your author has navigated another similar situation with a high school student-athlete being shot above his right hip. This unfortunate event happened during the offseason at the end of May, and the player was treated for non-life-threatening injuries. He was able to suit up for training camp in August and played in the first game of the season, just ten weeks later. 

While the unique nature of any gunshot wound can be extremely different, this at least provides some context. We also learned of some positive news about Robinson’s situation yesterday, as he was released from the hospital after surgery, and returned to see his teammates yesterday. 

2022 OUTLOOK AND INDICATORS

While is it impossible to know the length of this recovery and subsequent return to the field, we do have hope. Just yesterday they decided to include Brian Robinson Jr. on Washington’s 53-man roster when it was released. This is a strong vote of confidence by the team that Robinson will return and play meaningful snaps this season–and perhaps sooner than everyone thinks. It would have been very easy for the Commanders to place Robinson on the NFI (non-football injury) list to open the season. 

When considering the context and background surrounding the injury, it is important to remember that Robinson is a 23-year-old elite athlete entering the prime of his life. Additionally, he will be receiving some of the best medical care and rehabilitation that is available in the country. Still, Robinson right now just feels “lucky to be alive.” 

Considering what is known at this point, your author’s best prediction and recommendation are to prepare for Brian Robinson Jr. to miss anywhere from the first four to eight games this season. Furthermore, because he is currently on the active roster, he could potentially play earlier than Week 4. However, the Commanders are just keeping their options open and preparing for anything at this point. 

Generally speaking, it appears Brian Robinson will play this season no matter what. If this causes him to fall outside of the top 125 selections in any of your upcoming redraft leagues then he becomes a huge value with tremendous upside. 

DYNASTY ANALYSIS

On the surface, just three days out, it appears there will be no long-term adverse effects on Brian Robinson Jr.’s career as a result of these gunshot wounds. Do not hit the panic button and trade him for less than you would have traded him for a week ago. Your author is only moving Robinson for a 2023 rookie first-round pick or more in dynasty leagues. 

While this season the Commanders have a loaded backfield, Robinson could earn the lion’s share of the carries in 2023 and beyond. J.D. McKissic may not be on the roster this time next year and Antonio Gibson may be relegated to McKissic’s old role (if you bought into this preseason’s hype and coachspeak about Robinson). It is also important to note that RB Jaret Patterson was cut yesterday after rushing for 339 total yards and 2 TDs on just 78 touches last season as a UDFA rookie on an inexpensive contract. 

Though the injury is unfortunate, the recommendation is to treat Robinson no differently in dynasty leagues than you would have prior to this event.

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