Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down: AFC West

Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series. This week’s coverage will focus on the AFC West. You can find breakdowns on the AFC East, the NFC East, the AFC South, and the NFC South divisions here at DFF as well. Keep in mind, there will be a player whose stock is up and a player whose stock is down from each team in this division. Let’s get started. 

BRONCOS

STOCK UP – JAVONTE WILLIAMS

Year	Team	Games Played	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry	TDs	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2018	UNC	10	43	224	5.2	5	8	58	7.3	0
2019	UNC	13	166	933	5.6	5	17	176	10.4	1
2020	UNC	11	157	1,140	7.3	19	25	305	12.2	3

There’s a reason why the Denver Broncos decided to draft Williams in the second round of this year’s NFL Draft. It’s probably not because they wanted him to serve as Melvin Gordon’s understudy the entire season. The incoming rookie possesses a great skill set as an RB in this league. He’s explosive, and he has a knack for making defenders miss. He’s also a very talented receiver out of the backfield. 

Take a look at his college numbers above. They’re impressive, but most might look and think, “the numbers are great, but they aren’t dominant”. Well, think about it. Williams produced 1,445 scrimmage yards while playing the same position on the same team as Michael Carter (fourth-round pick by the Jets). Imagine what his production would have looked like if he didn’t split touches and served as the workhorse for the team. 

There are already reports stating that Williams could take over as Denver’s starting RB before the season even starts. Although his chances at serving as the team’s RB1 to start the season are in question, he’s certainly the future amongst Denver’s RBs. His ceiling is very high, and his floor looks to be nothing less than a Phillip Lindsay replacement. Don’t be surprised if we see a ton of Williams by the end of the season and a lot less Gordon. 

Williams’ 2021 Prediction

Rushing: 186 carries, 818 yards, 5 touchdowns

Receiving: 22 receptions, 171 yards, 1 touchdown

STOCK DOWN – MELVIN GORDON 

Year	Team	Games Played	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry	TDs	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2015	SD	14	184	641	3.5	0	33	192	5.8	0
2016	SD	13	254	997	3.9	10	41	419	10.2	2
2017	LAC	16	284	1,105	3.9	8	58	476	8.2	4
2018	LAC	12	175	885	5.1	10	50	490	9.8	4
2019	LAC	12	162	612	3.8	8	42	296	7.0	1
2020	DEN	15	215	986	4.6	9	32	158	4.9	1

When Denver brought Gordon over from Los Angeles last offseason, it seemed like a temporary move. They did give him a good chunk of change to play for them, but he was on the decline of his career, and he was coming off a career-low in rushing yards in 2019. He ultimately put together a quietly productive season last year. He served as the RB14 in PPR leagues, and he finished inside the top-10 in three separate weeks. 

Although Gordon finished with 14 yards less than 1,000 on the season, his receiving numbers took a big dip. He finished with a career-low in receptions (32), yards per catch average (4.9), and he only finished with one receiving touchdown. Now with the arrival of Williams, Gordon’s numbers should dwindle down even further. 

As mentioned above, Williams will more than likely take over the majority of touches over Gordon at some point this season. His future looks bright, and Gordon’s future looks very foggy at this point. There’s a reason why Williams’ ADP stands as the RB33 and Gordon’s ADP stands as the RB25 in redraft leagues. In dynasty leagues, forget about Gordon’s value. He ranks around the low-to-mid 30s range right now in dynasty rankings, whereas Williams ranks around the early 20s. If you have Gordon, you may have a little time left to brew up some sort of trade. 

Gordon’s 2021 Prediction

Rushing: 171 carries, 736 yards, 6 touchdowns

Receiving: 29 receptions, 216 yards, 1 touchdown

CHARGERS 

STOCK UP –  MIKE WILLIAMS

Year	Team	Games Played	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2017	LAC	10	11	95	8.6	0
2018	LAC	16	43	664	15.4	10
2019	LAC	15	49	1,001	20.4	2
2020	LAC	11	48	756	15.8	5

This is a recurring theme. Mike Williams has a lot of hype surrounding him going into the new season. Doesn’t this happen every year? Isn’t he always somewhat of a disappointment? Yes and yes! What’s different about this offseason is the fact that he’s playing with a second-year pro QB who seems like a top-10 talent already. 

Justin Herbert threw for an incredible 4,336 yards while producing 31 touchdowns and 10 interceptions. He’s also losing his starting TE, Hunter Henry, who finished third on the team in receiving yards (613) in 2020. Los Angeles brought in 34-year-old Jared Cook to replace him, but it’s hard to imagine him out producing Henry’s 2020 numbers. So now you have a receiving group of Keenan Allen, Jalen Guyton, Cook, and Williams. 

The speedy receiver should have no problem finishing second or third on the team in receiving yards, targets, and receptions (have to keep Austin Ekeler in mind). With Herbert going into his second season as a pro, expect a ton of opportunities for Williams. Also, keep in mind that the fifth-year pro will become an unrestricted free agent after this season. It’s do or die for both Williams’ next contract and his fantasy stock. 

Williams’ 2021 Prediction

Receiving: 59 receptions, 902 yards, 5 touchdowns

STOCK DOWN – JOSHUA KELLEY

Year	Team	Games Played	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry	TDs	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2020	LAC	14	111	354	3.2	2	23	148	6.4	0

There was a time last season when Joshua Kelley had an opportunity to become the Chargers’ RB1. He finished Week 1 with 12 carries, 60 rushing yards, and one touchdown. He followed that performance up with 23 carries, 64 rushing yards, two receptions, and 49 receiving yards the following week. He did all of this while playing behind Austin Ekeler. Then, Ekeler went down with a hamstring and knee injury, keeping him out for seven weeks. What did Kelley do with his opportunity? He produced just 139 rushing yards on 46 carries (3.0 yards per carry), 12 receptions, 57 receiving yards, and zero combined touchdowns between Weeks 5 and 10. 

Instead of Kelley taking over as the lead back, he found himself playing behind both Kalen Ballage and Justin Jackson. Going into this season, he looks to be the RB3 on this team behind both Ekeler and Jackson. Not only has the former fourth-round pick disappointed after a promising start to his rookie season, but he’s also not even good enough to be the team’s backup right now. 

With Ekeler as the every-down back and Jackson as the short-yardage bruiser, it’s hard to imagine Kelley having much of a role this season. Los Angeles is a pass-heavy team that has a lot of good pass-catchers surrounding Justin Herbert. Kelley will have to make the most of his opportunities to find snaps this season, and his future depends on great play. Right now, his stock is very low, and it will be hard for him to increase his stock this season. 

Kelley’s 2021 Prediction

Rushing: 84 carries, 302 yards, 2 touchdowns

Receiving: 9 receptions, 61 yards

CHIEFS 

STOCK UP –  CLYDE EDWARDS-HELAIRE

Year	Team	Games Played	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry	TDs	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2020	KC	13	181	803	4.4	4	36	297	8.3	1

So many fantasy analysts believed Edwards-Helaire was going to produce RB1-like numbers last season. If you really sat down and thought long and hard, it seemed impossible for that to happen. Sure, the pass-catching opportunities seemed great, but he was a rookie RB joining one of the best offenses in the league without a real offseason. Don’t get me wrong, he was good, but this season should be the one we hype up for him. 

Kansas City is going to throw the ball a ton, and they will rely on their rushing attack heavily, depending on their matchup. With a full season under his belt, a regular offseason, and health not in question, Edwards-Helaire should produce better numbers than last season. First of all, he’s easily the team’s lead back over Darrel Williams and Jerick McKinnon. Secondly, he’s playing behind a much improved offensive line. Kansas City brought in Orlando Brown Jr., Kyle Long, and Joe Thuney to revamp the most important part of Kansas City’s potential success (we all watched the Super Bowl). 

Edwards-Helaire’s ADP currently stands as the RB18 going into the season, but he has the potential to finish inside the top-10. He’s only 22 years old, and he’s playing alongside Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and Tyreek Hill. He’s also playing for one of the most talented offensive minds in the league in Andy Reid. That alone should be the formula for success for a starting RB on this team. 

Edwards-Helaire’s 2021 Prediction

Rushing: 202 carries, 929 yards, 6 touchdowns

Receiving: 48 receptions, 412 yards, 3 touchdowns

STOCK DOWN – DARREL WILLIAMS  

Year	Team	Games Played	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry	TDs	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2018	KC	6	13	44	3.4	0	3	27	9.0	1
2019	KC	12	41	141	3.4	3	15	167	11.1	1
2020	KC	16	39	169	4.3	1	18	116	6.4	0

The biggest reason why Williams’ fantasy stock is down entering the 2021 season is because of the player listed above. Edwards-Helaire is just scratching the surface on his potential going into his second season. There’s no way Andy Reid is going to jeopardize his potential by keeping Williams on the field too much this season. 

The fourth-year pro has been a good depth piece for Kansas City since he joined the team in 2018. He has yet to produce 200 rushing yards in one season, and he only touched the ball 57 times during the 2020 regular season. He was a huge part of Kansas City’s playoff push, but you can’t convince me that someone with 57 offensive touches will threaten a player’s fantasy stock the next year. 

To make matters worse for Williams, Kansas City brought in Jerick McKinnon to compete for the RB2 spot on the team. The veteran back has a good track record as a receiving threat out of the backfield. He finished with 33 receptions for 253 yards and one touchdown last season for San Francisco as a backup. He’s also produced at least 500 rushing yards in a season three separate times. With the combination of little success, McKinnon joining the team, and Edwards-Helaire clearly the team’s lead back, it’s going to be hard for Williams to find ways to produce in 2021. 

Williams’ 2021 Prediction

Rushing: 82 carries, 338 yards, 2 touchdowns

Receiving: 19 receptions, 139 yards, 1 touchdown 

RAIDERS

STOCK UP – DEREK CARR 

Year	Team	Games Played	Completion Percentage	Yards	TDs	INTs	Rushing Yards	TDs
2014	OAK	16	58.1%	3,270	21	12	92	0
2015	OAK	16	61.1%	3,987	32	13	138	0
2016	OAK	15	63.8%	3,937	28	6	70	0
2017	OAK	15	62.7%	3,496	22	13	66	0
2018	OAK	16	68.9%	4,049	19	10	47	1
2019	OAK	16	70.4%	4,054	21	8	82	2
2020	LV	16	67.3%	4,103	27	9	140	3

Carr has served as a very consistent QB in his seven years in the league when you look at season totals. But when you look at a week-by-week analysis, he can be one of the most inconsistent QBs in the league. During his career, he has finished inside the top-20 QBs in each season, but he’s only finished top-10 once (2016). Last year, he was the QB13, and he led a top-10 passing unit in 2020 (finished ninth in total passing yards). 

Darren Waller is easily Carr’s go-to target, especially in the red zone. Waller leads a receiving unit that also features second-year pros Bryan Edwards and Henry Ruggs III. Hunter Renfrow and Zay Jones are still on the team, and Las Vegas brought in two new faces to join the mix. Willie Snead IV brings depth to the slot receiver position, and John Brown could become the team’s WR1. To add even more firepower, the Raiders brought in Kenyan Drake to play alongside Josh Jacobs in the backfield. He’s a great receiving back that has surpassed 50 receptions in a season twice during his five-year career. 

On paper, this could be the best offensive unit surrounding Carr during his seven years in the league. Not only did he get a few new pass-catchers to add to his arsenal, but the Raiders’ defense also added a few new players that should solidify their growth. They brought in a great edge rusher in Yannick Ngakoue, a big-bodied Quinton Jefferson to play alongside Johnathan Hankins on the interior, a former third overall pick in Soloman Thomas to solidify even more defensive line help, and a former Raider safety in Karl Joseph. These signings should bolster a defense that gave up the third-most points in the league last season. An improved defense will help any QB and his offense improve. The combination of an improved defense, more pass-catchers added, and a well-rounded offense should serve Carr well this season in fantasy. 

Carr’s 2021 Prediction

Passing: 4,363 yards, 29 touchdowns, 9 interceptions

Rushing: 143 yards, 2 touchdowns

STOCK DOWN – JOSH JACOBS

Year	Team	Games Played	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry	TDs	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2019	OAK	13	242	1,150	4.8	7	20	166	8.3	0
2020	LV	15	273	1,065	3.9	12	33	238	7.2	0

As mentioned above, the Raiders brought in a former starting RB in this league, Kenyan Drake. The five-year pro has been Arizona’s lead back the past two seasons, and he finished as the RB17 in 2019 and the RB16 in 2020 respectively (PPR). Jacobs, on the other hand, has been Las Vegas’ “bell cow” RB during his two-year career. He finished as the RB21 and the RB8 in PPR leagues the past two seasons. Not only will Drake’s arrival hurt his fantasy production, but it’s also going to take away from Jacobs’ growth as well. 

This is dynasty football we are talking about here. Drake was signed to a two-year deal worth up to $14.5 M. There’s no way he was signed to that kind of contract just to take a seat behind Jacobs for the next two seasons. He will be on the field, and HC Jon Gruden has already said that the team will use Drake as a gadget back. Take that statement with a grain of salt, but nonetheless, he will diminish Jacobs’ pass-catching opportunities. In his two seasons in the league, Jacobs has caught a combined 53 passes for 404 yards. Drake has surpassed those combined numbers in one season alone (2018).

Not only did Las Vegas sign Drake, but they also brought back Theo Riddick, a former Detroit Lion that has been known to be a prolific pass-catcher throughout his career. In fact, he has totaled 290 receptions for 2,281 yards and 14 touchdowns during his seven seasons in the league. Both Drake and Riddick will receive far more targets than Jacobs. That leaves the third-year pro still listed as the starter, but his fantasy points will come mostly from rushing statistics. Expect the 23-year-old to have a good season, but his potential to finish as an every year RB1 has more than likely come to an end. 

Jacobs’ 2021 Prediction

Rushing: 226 carries, 972 yards, 7 touchdowns

Receiving: 23 receptions, 197 yards, 1 touchdown

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