The Senior Bowl has come and gone and we move one step further in our off-season process. Thankfully, I’m one step closer in my own rookie evaluations with my first look at the 2023 rookie receiver class. We’ll use film analysis numerical data from the regular season and look at using KPIs based on DFF’s very own Chris Miles. Using the points from his model and tales from the tape, I’ll break down this highly touted rookie class by discussing The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly of each prospect.
10. Marvin Mims – Oklahoma
Size: 5′ 11″ | 183 lbs
Breakout Age: 18.5
College Dominator: 27.5
BS Target Share: 22.4
The Good
Marvin Mims remained with OU after the Lincoln Riley exodus and still managed modest production despite a steep decline in both quarterback play and offensive scheme. The junior deserved much better for his final season other than almost half of his targets being overthrown and/or off-target. Mims fits into the mold of do-it-all slots that are well-rounded at everything and his release package stands out despite his size.
The Bad
Again, Mims is decent and everything. But he’s not particularly great in any area and he’s undersized to boot. He has stiff hips that limit his route-running and body control. He never appears to win downfield to go along with inconsistent hands.
The Ugly Truth
Mims will need an impressive combine or pro day to be looked at as more than a Day 3 receiver for an NFL team and a great landing spot to be worth more than a 3rd or 4th-round rookie pick. His game could translate as a PPR flex play but hard to see him as a useful asset in standard scoring.
Player Comp: Russell Gage with less polish.
9. Jalin Hyatt – Tennessee
Size: 6′ 0″ | 185 lbs
Breakout Age: 19
College Dominator: 37.6%
Best Season TD Share: 43%
BS Target Share: 23.4%
The Good
Jalin Hyatt popped off as a big play threat in an explosive Tennessee offense in 2022. Speed, speed, and mostly speed make up Hyatt’s game and wins downfield with explosive acceleration and straight-line burst. College defenses respect his speed and he’s sometimes able to win with double moves before his breaks.
The Bad
Everything but speed. Hyatt has a very limited route tree and is often “won” by the offense exploiting busted plays or just being much faster than the college competition. A well-schemed offense allowed Hyatt to consistently use his speed, rather than nuance, to win downfield with rub routes, crossers across the middle, or wheel routes.
The Ugly Truth
Analytics will love Hyatt’s production but has never flashed ability beyond one season. He’ll need to develop a fuller route tree and nuance to win at the next level and looks poised to be the biggest trap player in rookie drafts.
Player Comp: Slower John Ross floor with a worse Will Fuller ceiling.
8. Xavier Hutchinson – Iowa State
Size: 6′ 3″ | 210 lbs
Breakout Age: 19
College Dominator: 34.4%
BS Target Share: 34.1%
The Good
Xavier Hutchinson was an absolute target monster for Iowa State for three straight years. The junior doesn’t have much flash to his game but consistently beats defenses with crisp and precise routes, sure hands, and decent size. He simply does everything right and is the football equivalent of “meat and potatoes.” If there’s one area that shines is Hutchinson’s hands because he works as a steel trap when the football comes his way and actually uses his frame to attack the football instead of waiting for it.
The Bad
Despite all the good things Hutchinson does he only managed his production in the Big-12 and doesn’t blow anyone away on film. College production can fool the eyes when you never compete against elite talent.
The Ugly Truth
Hutchinson will be a mystery bag dart throw at the end of the rookie 2nds or early 3rd round that doesn’t flash upside. He had an impressive Senior Bowl week but those should be taken with a grain of salt. Solid test numbers will improve his stock the most between now and the NFL draft.
Player Comp: Somewhere between Zay Jones, Michael Gallup, and Van Jefferson
7. Rashee Rice – SMU
Size: 6′ 0″ | 200 lbs
Breakout Age: 20
College Dominator: 32.1%
BS Target Share: 30.6%
The Good
Rashee Rice gained steam all of 2022 as a small school darling and rightfully so. He’s a surprisingly effective route runner with a robust tree and tool bag full of release and double-move packages. He plays much bigger than 6’ and can explain why I could believe he was 6’2’ before his recent Senior Bowl measurements. Rice attacks the ball with his hands and has decent athleticism and body control for a wide catch radius and big-play ability. He consistently wins at the line of scrimmage both inside and outside and has enough long speed to stack defenders downfield.
The Bad
He could use more polish to consistently sink his hips and burst out of the stem of his routes to create separation and struggles with ball security. Rice has a 64.9 PFF grade for drops and 27.9 for fumbles. For every big catch downfield there was a drop, specifically on ins and outs while in traffic. These same drops even showed in his individual drills despite solid film in every other area.
Speaking of Senior Bowl, Rice is also an older prospect from a small school who barely made the breakout cutoff. This can affect his draft stock and his upside as a fantasy asset if he doesn’t immediately produce.
The Ugly Truth
Rice is a small school boom/bust prospect who could be a value as long as he stays in the 2nd Round of rookie drafts before we know his NFL Draft capital. He could be a big play star but if he doesn’t quickly put things together we could have a UDFA darling or a journeyman receiver like Travis Fulgham.
Player Comp: Best Case Chris Godwin, Worst Case Demarcus Robinson
6. Kayshon Boutte – LSU
Size: 6′ 0″ | 205 lbs
Breakout Age: 18.3
College Dominator: 30.9
Best Season TD Share: 60%
BS Target Share: 22.8%
The Good
Kayshon Boutte has athleticism, pedigree, and a few big games under his resume. The junior out of LSU is a former 4 Star Recruit with decent size for his height and speed and quickness to play all over the formation. He’s sudden and wastes little movement in his routes and that coupled with his speed gives him ample separation ability. He was an effective YAC machine despite the underwhelming production which will translate into big-play fantasy production. He flashes both finesse and brawn when it counts.
The Bad
No single prospect in this class has as many questions as Boutte other than Zach Evans and for similar reasons. LSU has had a bad stretch since the fall of Coach Orgeron and Boutte could be just a casualty of transition while in a tough conference. But we don’t know that considering the myriad of off-field issues that forced him to renege on his decision to return. If there’s enough smoke to make fantasy managers, there’s enough to bake in NFL teams questioning the same thing and tanking his draft stock into early rankings.
The Ugly Truth
Boutte will likely go in the 2nd round of many rookie drafts regardless of draft capital because of the upside. But the only thing to push him into the Top-5 will be early draft capital or an ideal landing situation like the Bill or Chiefs. He has the athletic profile to be a fantasy superstar but you don’t want to overpay until draft day.
Player Comp: Chris Godwin with more drama. Justin Blackmon with less drama.
5. Josh Downs – UNC
Size: 5′ 10″ | 180 lbs
Breakout Age: 19.1
College Dominator: 35.6
Best Season TD Share: 44%
BS Target Share: 39.2%
The Good
Josh Downs has been a dominant target hog the past two seasons at UNC and that’s not because of a lack of competition scheme. Downs makes the Top-5 because he’s as polished as they come. He has speed, decent release, and is a superb route runner with a diverse route tree. He plays bigger than his size might suggest and has the profile of a receiver with consistent PPR value at the minimum.
The Bad
Size and pedigree will be a reason many dynasty managers will fade Josh Downs. Smaller receivers tend to have difficulty fighting press, can’t fight for 50/50 balls, and struggle playing on the outside without burner speed. It’s even more concerning that his production came in the ACC and not in a conference with a denser NFL talent pool of his size.
The Ugly Truth
Size matters to an extent but smaller receivers are just as useful as any in today’s NFL. Josh Downs fits the mold of today’s wide receivers by just simply getting open. Offenses spread out the field and move receivers all over the formation, including the slot, and a player like Downs has the skill, polish, and nuance to move over the formation and create separation for a QB to pepper them with targets. This is your weekly reminder that targets are earned in the NFL and Downs can earn several targets for an NFL team which will translate into fantasy production for your Dynasty team
Player Comp: Emmanuel Sanders, Diontae Johnson, Jahan Dotson
4. Jordan Addison – USC
Size: 6′ 0″ | 174 lbs
Breakout Age: 18.6
College Dominator: 30%
Best Season TD Share: 39.5%
BS Target Share: 23.7%
The Good
Jordan Addison is one of the most productive receivers in this draft class with a Biletnikoff Award under his belt to boot. He has superb downfield speed that allows him to use jab steps and head fakes to manipulate defenders for separation and is sure-handed enough to consistently catch away from his body. He broke out at a young age and then transferred to the same system that produced CeeDee Lamb which are two key points that fare well for future fantasy production.
The Bad
The usual size concerns pop up for Jordan Addison like the rest of this class but despite all the shiny accolades and pedigree, these concerns seem to affect him the most on tape. Addison can’t stay on time in his routes when faced with bump-and-run coverage and press. Moreover, we never saw the same level of production after a transfer to a higher level of competition which is concerning.
The Ugly Truth
Jordan Addison doesn’t look like a WR1 in the NFL, let alone like the WR1 in this draft class but has enough skill and polish to be productive for an NFL team and for your fantasy team. He disappointed in what should’ve been an explosive season and doesn’t play big enough to be great. Expectations as a future Dynasty WR1 will need to be tempered until we see more.
Player Comp: Slower Darnell Mooney
3. Zay Flowers – Boston College
Size: 5′ 11″ | 178 lbs
Breakout Age: 20
College Dominator: 45.4
Best Season TD Share: 54.5%
BS Target Share: 28.2%
The Good
Zay Flowers simply was Boston College and was productive enough considering the talent, or lack thereof, during his tenure. Flowers is the most polished route runners in this class and fights through contact both at the release and throughout his route despite his size. You could knock the production coming in the ACC but Flowers was a top transfer candidate that could’ve played anywhere but chose to stay out of loyalty.
The Bad
Limited Size and pedigree could kill draft capital. He’s nearly the same size as Jordan Addison despite what it looks like on tape and he could suffer the same setbacks of fighting through contact at the next level. It’s also an analytical red flag that he had a late breakout and never declared early.
The Ugly Truth
There’s much to love about Zay Flower in a vacuum but certain analytical thresholds hold him back from being “the guy” in class that lacks one. His elite route skills and nuance should make NFL teams salivate and is a value at his current 2nd Round ADP.
Player Comp: Diontae Johnson, Emmanuel Sanders
2. Quentin Johnston – TCU
Size: 6′ 4″ | 201 lbs
Breakout Age: 19
College Dominator: 31
Best Season TD Share: 46.2
BS Target Share: 25.3%
The Good
Quentin Johnston fits the profile of an “Alpha” or Number 1 or whatever cliche you want to name a receiver. He’s the tallest receiver in the class and plays fast on the field despite that size and NFL teams can’t coach speed or size. Chunk plays and touchdowns are what win weeks for fantasy and Johnston has fit that role consistently for TCU. Players like him are massive targets not unlike Tee Higgins that turn 50/50 balls into 80/20 balls and are rare specimens
The Bad
As I mentioned, Johnston is still very raw. He ran a limited route tree at TCU and will need to develop nuance to be more than just an outside role player in an offense. The biggest concern about his game is that will lose him reps as even a role player will be inconsistent hands. Johnston sometimes body catches instead of attacking the ball and isn’t elite at tracking the ball on deep routes and fades.
The Ugly Truth
Johnston will need patience and coaching but at this point of the offseason, we can chase upside. There’s tons of meat on the bone for improvement and the right situation could be a fantasy boom for Dynasty Managers. However, Quentin Johnston is one of the biggest risks at his current price.
Player Comp: Martavis Bryant, Breshad Perriman
1. Jaxon Smith-Njigba – Ohio State
Size: 6′ 0″ | 196 lbs
Breakout Age: 19.6
College Dominator: 26
Best Season TD Share: 19.6%
BS Target Share: 22.2%
The Good
Jaxon Smith-Njigba has already dominated on a team that included Garrett Wilson and Chris Olave. The Junior from Ohio State is a fantastic operator from the slot with the speed to challenge a defense vertically and the best YAC skills out of this draft class. Smith-Njigba is blazing fast in and out of his breaks and quickly hits a higher gear at the stem of his routes and after securing the ball. He’s the best pure hands catcher in the class and tracks the ball well over the shoulder deep and is a steel trap over the middle despite traffic.
The Bad
Jaxon Smith-Njigba doesn’t have elite size and spent most of the season injured. He might test slower than he looks on film and the fact that he projects as a slot might affect his draft stock. There’s not much to hate.
The Ugly Truth
Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the safest receiver in this draft class. He has polish, hands, field awareness, and the prototype to be a target hog in today’s NFL. Even if he translates to a lower ADOT receiver he has some of the best skills after the catch for value even in standard leagues.
Player Comp: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Keep up with my updated rankings through the offseason on Twitter @FantasyBluechip.
