As the 2022 Fantasy Season comes to a close we get to shift to off-season Twitter topics that leave us arguing with strangers about a likely UDFA QB until our feet go numb on the toilet. Yes, folks, it’s time for rookie talk before we even have draft capital! Luckily, we have plenty of numerical data from the regular season we can look at using KPIs based from DFF’s very own Chris Miles. Using the points from his model and tales from the tape, I’ll break down this highly touted rookie class by discussing The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly of each prospect.
10. Deuce Vaughn – Kansas State
Size: 5′ 6″ | 176 lbs
College Dominator: 43.9%
Career YPC: 5.9
Best Season YPG: 144
Career Target Share: 17.8%
The Good
Productive is the first word I’d use to describe Deuce Vaughn. There’s definitely a second word but I’ll save that one for later. Vaughn was the Kansas State offense and has the highest dominator score on this list and plays much bigger than his size may suggest. His game pops in all areas of the field and is a top-3 back in regards to open-field vision. He served as the Wildcats’ McCaffrey-Esque receiving option. Vaughn looks like a dynamic player that any coach would want in a film vacuum. Unfortunately, we can’t evaluate players in a vacuum.
The Bad
Vaughn is woefully undersized and the smallest in this class. Despite his production both inside and outside the tackles, most of this came in a conference filled with mediocre defenses. There’s simply never been a running back of his stature to ever make it in the NFL.
The Ugly Truth
Deuce Vaughn is by far the most productive and explosive out of this draft class’ “Short Kings” but has incomparable measurables. This would mean he would have to be an NFL Unicorn to be a fantasy-relevant player and we shouldn’t bet on undersized running backs to be Unicorns. It’s hard to poke holes in his game other than size before the draft and I wouldn’t be surprised if he was drafted as high as Round 4 or as low as the Sixth. Regardless, he’s a guy I’ll take in the 3rd round of rookie drafts that I’d eventually try and flip but nobody should expect him to be a guy that helps you win leagues.
Player Comparisons: Nelly in The Longest Yard because it’s hard to imagine either of them in the NFL.
9. Devon Achane – Texas A&M
Size: 5′ 9″ | 185 lbs
College Dominator: 26.3%
Career YPC: 7.0
Best Season YPG: 129.8
Career Target Share: 8.1%
The Good
Speed, speed, and more speed is the name of Devon Achane’s game and we haven’t even clocked a 40 time. Most were already waiting to see what he’d look like with a full workload after the departure of Isaiah Spiller and he didn’t disappoint being the team bellcow. Achane displayed that he was more than a speedster but could actually convert that burst into production both inside and outside of the tackles with his natural vision and burst when hitting the edge. His best asset to both an NFL or a Fantasy roster is his receiving ability and his skill in open space.
The Bad
Size, Size, and more Size is the name of Devon Achane’s red flag. Despite his speed and burst he lacks the strength to convert any of that into power. This will make it difficult for him to break arm tackles and move the pile for extra yards at the pro level. It’s nearly impossible to picture him as an every-down NFL back and he lacks the size to be anything more than a change-of-pace back in a committee.
The Ugly Truth
Achane is a dreaded “tweener” and it’s hard to project his usage in the NFL. A team could look at him on Day 3 as a “convert to receiver” player, but with very little experience at the position it’s nearly impossible to adjust. I assume he’ll be a player that demands little other than designed gadget touches. He does play bigger on tape than his size may suggest but again, the game is literally bigger and faster at the pro level and it’s too risky to bet on his level of play to continue in the NFL.
Player Comparisons: Javian Hawkins
8. Blake Corum – Michigan
Size: 5′ 8″ | 200
College Dominator: 21.9%
Career YPC: 6.6
Best Season YPG: 126.6
Career YPG: 92.7
Career Target Share: 10.0%
The Good
Blake Corum took the baton from Kenneth Walker III and literally ran with it. Corum is one of the most natural runners between the tackles in the draft class and his low center of gravity makes him a difficult player to bring down. He even has decent size despite his height and shows it on the field with the ability to fight through arm tackles and deliver some contact instead of just receiving it. He’s had some of the highest receiving game utilization in college football.
The Bad
Corum is still undersized, especially compared to the top half of this list, and has underwhelming long speed to redeem his small stature. That mixed with his limited lateral quickness makes him look like Michael Carter with more thump and less scat.
The Ugly Truth
Despite a rise up the draft boards not unlike Kenneth Walker III, he’s not Kenneth Walker III. He’ll need an exceptional Combine or Pro Day to likely be considered better than a career backup. Despite my negative outlook, I’d be willing to place my bets on Corum as the “Most Likely Day 3 RB that Dynasty Managers refuse to cash out on.”
Player Comparisons: Phillip Lindsay
7. Kendre Miller – TCU
Size: 6′ 0″ | 214 lbs
College Dominator: 20.5%
Career YPC: 7.5
Best Season YPG: 108.2
Career YPG: 79.9
Career Target Share: 5.4%
The Good
Kendre Miller has been an impact player on a team playing for a National Championship. The TCU Junior had modest production while behind Zach Evans and exploded after Evans transferred. His best ability is finding holes and cutback lanes and TCU’s spread offense has allowed him to put that on display all the way to the big stage. Miller has NFL size but is a Master of None, and has enough juice to hit a hole and make a guy miss, but only just that.
The Bad
Again, Miller is a Master of None and won’t blow past many defensive backs, and doesn’t deliver much physicality. He looks and plays much lighter than his 214 lbs suggests and avoids contact where he could fight for extra yardage. It’s even more concerning that he’s had very little receiving production throughout his career and this leaves a lot of room for the assumption that he’ll both be drafted by a team that will utilize him or that he’s even capable of being an effective receiving weapon.
The Ugly Truth
Miller is a productive prospect who lacks athleticism and relies on vision to take advantage of what the defense gives him. He excelled in TCU’s spread offense because it plays to his strengths but I have my doubts he has what it takes to do that on any team. Overall, he brings nothing special to the table and likely needs a good fit and system like the 49ers to be fantasy-relevant.
Player Comparisons: Jeff Wilson, T.J. Yeldon
6. Zach Evans – Ole Miss
Size: 5′ 11″ | 216 lbs
College Dominator: 21.5%
Career YPC: 7.4
Best Season YPG: 129.7
Career Target Share: 4.2%
The Good
Zach Evans comes with pedigree and all the tools you want in a feature back. People forget that he was the Top Back during most of his recruiting process until Bijan Robinson leaped him towards the end. His best trait is the combination of burst and power that makes him an efficient runner inside and outside of the box. The stats won’t show receiving production but the tape shows a player with soft hands and comfort catching away from his body. If he was ever a bellcow in college his stats would make the spreadsheets scream “Bluechip”
The Bad
Unfortunately and ironically, he’s never been utilized as a bellcow despite being a literal Bluechip prospect. Evans was the lead during his time at TCU, but still gave up touches to Kendre Miller and then eventually transferred to Ole Miss. He should’ve been the crown jewel of Lane Kiffen’s offense but was usurped by the Freshman Phenom Quinson Judkins for the role. To be fair, Judkins is just very very good, but Evans has been plagued with off-field issues his entire career.
The Ugly Truth
There’s much to love about Zach Evans but he comes with baggage and mystery. He looks every bit like an every-down running back when he’s on the field, but seems to never earn the playing time a player of his caliber deserves. Putting him 6th in the RB rankings is accounting for that baggage and mystery that could push him down NFL draft boards. However, he checks boxes for speed, power, agility, and hands.
Player Comparisons: Sony Michel, but good.
Come back tomorrow to see the rest of the Early ’23 Rookie RB Ranking list!
Want to see the rest of my rankings? Follow me on Twitter @SportsJag!
