We’ve officially passed the NFL draft declaration date and we know who exactly our fresh batch of rookie picks will be. That means no more Twitter speculation and narratives about who will declare. (Looking at you Stroud.) Sure it’s a little early to rank without draft capital. Luckily, we have plenty of numerical data from the regular season we can look at using KPIs based from DFF’s very own Chris Miles. Using the points from his model and tales from the tape, I’ll break down this highly touted rookie class by discussing The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly of each prospect.
5. Hendon Hooker – Tennessee
Size: 6’4” | 218 lbs
Best Season Pass Yards/Attempt: 9.7
Best Season Comp%: 69.6
Career TD Rate: 8.5
Career Passer Rating: 172.2
Best Season Rush YPG: 77.5
The Good
Hendon Hooker was both productive and efficient in his two seasons as a Tennessee Volunteer and likely would’ve received more draft buzz than he’s gotten had he not suffered an ACL tear during an unfortunate loss to South Carolina. The senior consistently made the big plays the offense designed for him and is a true master of none. Fantasy managers will love his size and ability to score points on the ground and look natural in the open field. However, the best traits that will keep him employed in the NFL are how well he protects the football and takes what the defense gives him instead of forcing big plays.
The Bad
The spreadsheets will look better in a vacuum than the entire situation does without context. Hooker is already 25 years old and will likely see that affect his draft stock. He’ll have little insulation from replacement and we haven’t seen a QB drafted that low hit since Russell Wilson. Furthermore, the ACL tear could keep him out of post-season workouts with teams and prevent him from improving his draft stock. Ifs and Buts aside, Hooker also struggles with accuracy and tends to “arm” throws instead of setting a good base, particularly on throws 15 yards and further. He also appears to struggle with feeling pressure both pre and post-snap and rarely makes throws on the run.
The Ugly Truth
Hooker has the solid floor to be a solid backup and the ceiling to be a starter that will thrive in a Quarterback-friendly system like Miami. He has the arm to make every throw either deep or intermediate and takes care of the football, but needs to work on setting his feet and consistently delivering accurate throws downfield.
Player Comparisons: Ryan Tannehill
4. Will Levis – Kentucky
Size: 6’3” | 222 lbs
Best Season Pass Yards/Attempt: 8.5
Best Season Comp%: 66%
Career TD Rate: 5.9%
Career Passer Rating: 148.3
Best Season Rush YPG: 32.5
The Good
Will Levis has the biggest arm in this draft class. One could argue it’s the best but we’ll save the criticisms for The Bad section. I initially came in lower on Levis than most but left seeing what many of the Truthers drool over. The senior has a lightning-fast release and makes bombs for 50 yards look effortless and the athletic profile looks like a Josh Allen clone. Levis often looks like the truck pulling the offense and at least appears to have everything a team wants in a franchise QB.
The Bad
Costly turnovers and lack of vision will be the downfall of Levis in the NFL. He often looks like he’s trying to make things happen instead of letting things happen and forces the ball into coverage. Moreover, Levis doesn’t see what the defense is giving him neither pre-snap nor post-snap, and takes the sack or falls right into the secondary’s trap. Sure, you need your quarterback to be confident in their arm, but there’s a difference between being Josh Allen or Mahomes and Zach Wilson or Sam Darnold. Despite all the talk about his size and rushing ability, Levis is one of the least efficient rushers and posted -103 rushing yards for his ‘22 season.
The Ugly Truth
Will Levis is the biggest boom or bust for a franchise and can go anywhere in the first round. NFL GMs will keep drafting players like this and hope they hit because no other Quarterback in this class has these kinds of tools in their bag. It’s concerning that he was never as productive against higher-level competition and had a near 1:1 TD/Turnover ratio. He could be a unicorn in the mold of Josh Allen on the right team, but it’s always concerning to bet on players to be unicorns before they’ve taken their own snap.
Player Comparisons: EJ Manuel
3. Anthony Richardson – Florida
Size: 6’4” | 236 lbs
Best Season Pass Yards/Attempt: 7.6
Best Season Comp%: 53.8
Career TD Rate: 6.1
Career Passer Rating: 133.6
Best Season Rush YPG: 50.7
The Good
Anthony Richardson might have the most raw talent in this draft class and is the largest QB at 6’4” and 236 lbs. The Junior from Florida is a human highlight reel that flashes big play ability on the ground and will look enticing to fantasy managers for that alone. Effortless throws on the run, arm strength, and a pocket presence are what will entice NFL GMs. Richardson was the clear bright and shiny star on a terrible team in a difficult conference and rarely had a clean pocket but still always managed to keep his eyes downfield to look for an open receiver. Moreover, Richardson is one of the best at climbing the pocket to try and make a play downfield instead of bailing to scramble despite what some “boomer” takes are likely to come out during NFL Draft time.
The Bad
Richardson has accuracy issues due to inconsistent throwing mechanics. He tends to not set his feet and needs work to iron out his throwing motion. The biggest concern is how the stats appear overall. Yes, data needs plenty of context, especially when concerning quarterbacks, but other QBs like Will Levis managed to hit thresholds in the same conference. Richardson needs quality throwing workouts during the combine and his pro day to avoid the Malik Willis comps.
The Ugly Truth
Richardson looks like a fantasy manager’s dream but will need to prove himself as a consistent passer on a real NFL roster before those dreams become a reality. Many will point out Malik Willis as a reason to fade him right off their draft board but it’s important to understand that Richardson is a much better passer with experience in a much better conference. We could be talking about how Richardson is the best out of this class in a few seasons with his size, speed, and arm strength if the right coaching staff can put it all together.
Player Comparisons: Cam Newton
2. C.J. Stroud – Ohio State
Size: 6’3” | 205 lbs
Best Season Pass Yards/Attempt: 10.1
Best Season Comp%: 71.9
Career TD Rate: 10.2
Career Passer Rating: 182
Best Season Rush YPG: 4.1
The Good
Size, mobility, pedigree, and arm talent are all the reasons why C.J. Stroud has the draft buzz for No. 1 overall. The Ohio State product put up two solid seasons of game tape and stats against elite competition and doesn’t appear to be just a product of an offense but a legitimate game-changer for any NFL franchise. There isn’t a throw Stroud can’t make and he’s one of the best quarterbacks at escaping the pocket to buy time and make completions on the move. An underrated trait is his control over his velocity. He’s able to put zip on the ball to fit into tight windows but has beautiful touch downfield.
The Bad
There’s not much bad to his game, but nuances that could cause trouble at the pro level include both his “happy feet” and his tendency to stare down receivers. Stroud gets himself into trouble and delivers passes off target because he bounces on his toes and throws off platform instead of planting his feet before firing. Furthermore, when plays break down he tends to “pick” his receiver and stare at them until they’re open. Defenders won’t be as forgiving for either of these things in a league where everyone is bigger and faster. He lacks rushing production but it doesn’t look like he can’t but more as if he doesn’t.
The Ugly Truth
Stroud should be drafted outside of the Top-5 of either rookie drafts or the NFL draft. No other quarterback in this class has a complete foundation of both size and passing ability to be the modern prototypical franchise quarterback. A cherry on his passing production will make both the spreadsheets and NFL scouts sing. His fantasy upside could be capped if he doesn’t show more ability on the ground but could give you Justin Herbert/Joe Burrow-level mobility points.
Player Comparisons: Donovan McNabb, What the 49ers hope Trey Lance is.
1. Bryce Young – Alabama
Size: 6’0” | 194 lbs
Best Season Pass Yards/Attempt: 8.9
Best Season Comp%: 66.9
Career TD Rate: 8.1
Career Passer Rating: 162.4
Best Season Rush YPG: 7.5
The Good
There’s no better quarterback at ball placement in this draft class. Bryce Young consistently makes impossible passes downfield. He leaves no questions on neither mobility nor ability to make throws on the run. Off-platform and off-schedule throws look easy and it’s important to note that he does this against much better talent in games than players like Zach Wilson were touted for doing during workouts. Again, the main word I would use to describe Young would be consistency. He consistently makes eye-popping plays and doesn’t just “flash” them.
The Bad
Size will be a consistent narrative going down the stretch and although he won’t be trucking linebackers like Josh Allen, he isn’t exactly a fragile little flower. He could find some challenges with batted balls at the line of scrimmage but most of those things can be mitigated with coaching and scheme. The lack of rushing production is the bigger concern from a fantasy perspective but in this regard, he does “flash” ability rather than consistently displaying it.
The Ugly Truth
Bryce Young has been a proven star in college since he took over from Mac Jones and most concerns over size should be ignored. The Alabama product has very little to prove from a statistical standpoint and has already won an award for being the best player in college football as a sophomore. A fast 40 time will only secure his place over the rest of the class in the future.
Player Comparisons: Somewhere between Kyler Murray and Russell Wilson
Past Articles in this series: Part 1, Part 2
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