In the Dynasty format of fantasy football, it’s easy to get caught up in future projections with rookies that we have not seen play yet at an NFL level. It’s important to look ahead at what these rookies will accomplish in the future, but each one has a starting point that will affect their future value. Some players will break out immediately, and some may take time to develop based on their talent level and how quickly they get an opportunity to see the field. Here are the top Dynasty rookie wide receivers and what to expect in 2024.
Marvin Harrison Jr. (WR – ARI)
Marvin Harrison Jr. is the consensus WR1 in the 2024 rookie class, and for good reason. With a combination of size while maintaining speed and body control, Marvin has reliable hands, crisp route running, and an ability to create separation. He joins a Cardinals team that desperately needed a wide receiver of his caliber after losing DeAndre Hopkins at the end of the 2022 season. The Cardinals passed for just 3,834 yards (26th) in the 2023 season, largely because Kyler Murray (QB – ARI) missed the first nine weeks of the regular season recovering from an ACL tear. Murray is now back to full strength and has a full offseason to prepare for the 2024 campaign. Drafted 4th overall, Harrison Jr. walks into next to zero competition at the wide receiver position in Arizona. The Cardinals lost Hollywood Brown, the second-most targeted player with 101 targets, to Kansas City and signed only one meaningful receiver this offseason, Zay Jones. Michael Wilson (WR – ARI) had a promising rookie year last season, catching 38 balls for 565 yards, but is no target competition threat. Surprisingly, it was Trey McBride (TE – ARI) who led the team in receiving yards (825), receptions (81), and targets (106). Marvin should easily lead all these categories in 2024 and should be a solid WR2 (top 24).
2024 Projection: 120 targets, 80 receptions, 1100 receiving yards, with seven touchdowns for 232 fantasy points in PPR scoring.
Malik Nabers (WR – NYG)
Malik Nabers may be equal to Marvin Harrison Jr. from a talent perspective, but for different reasons – while Marvin has the size, Nabers has the fast-twitch speed. Selected 6th overall, Nabers joins a struggling New York Giants team. Almost everyone has Nabers as a “sit and wait” type of Dynasty player until the Giants figure out their offense and their quarterback situation, including myself. Similar to Harrison Jr., Nabers has very little competition for targets entering a WR room with Darius Slayton, Wandale Robinson, and Jalin Hyatt. Darren Waller (TE – NYG) just announced his retirement from the NFL, leaving the Giants with little receiving ability at tight end with Daniel Bellinger and rookie Theo Johnson. Nabers is by far the most talented player on this offense, but he’ll be catching passes from Daniel Jones for at least one season. Jones is coming off an ACL tear and has only remained fully healthy for one season in his career in 2022, when he passed for just 3,205 yards and 15 touchdowns. In 2023, the Giants saw a combination of Daniel Jones, Tommy DeVito, and Tyrod Taylor heading up the offense that produced a team-leading 770 receiving yards on 50 receptions from Darius Slayton. We may see Drew Lock (QB – NYG) make an appearance this season, whether that’s because Jones can’t stay healthy or is simply benched. Nabers has the talent level to elevate this offense and may be the only open receiver on the team in 2024 but could see an entirely new offense in future seasons if the Giants decide to move on from Daniel Jones or even Head Coach Brian Daboll. Temper expectations for him in his rookie season and hope for a more promising future. Nabers should be a WR3-4 (top 36 to 48), and a flex play at best in 2024.
2024 Projection: 105 targets, 70 receptions, 950 receiving yards, with five touchdowns for 195 fantasy points in PPR scoring.
Rome Odunze (WR – CHI)
Rome Odunze makes up the last of the elite tier of wide receivers in this rookie class, being drafted ninth overall by the newly revamped Chicago Bears. Odunze seems to have already created a connection with the first overall pick, Caleb Williams (QB – CHI). Odunze has fantastic contested catch ability and has a complete route tree that should make for a lucrative fantasy football career; however, for 2024, he’s buried in the depth chart. The Bears made it a point to surround their new quarterback with weapons by adding Keenan Allen (WR – CHI) and D’Andre Swift (RB – CHI) this offseason. Allen is coming off a 1,243 receiving-yard season in just 13 games with the Chargers, including seven touchdowns, and former Lion and Eagle, Swift, is reportedly involved in the receiving game. The Bears’ receiving leader last season by far was DJ Moore (WR – CHI), who had an impressive 1,364 yards on 96 receptions, including eight touchdowns and catching passes from a combination of Justin Fields and Tyson Bagent. We can’t forget emerging tight end Cole Kmet, the second-leading pass catcher in 2023 with 719 yards on 73 receptions. Odunze is a great talent who may need to play the waiting game in 2024 but could see the field quicker than expected if Keenan Allen misses time. Barring injury to his teammates, Odunze is projected to be the WR3 on the roster and is expected to be a fantasy WR4 (top 48) in the upcoming season. He can be used in the flex spot in deeper Dynasty leagues.
2024 Projection: 90 targets, 65 receptions, 850 receiving yards, with four touchdowns for 174 fantasy points in PPR scoring.
Xavier Worthy (WR – KC)
Xavier Worthy hit the jackpot when the Kansas City Chiefs traded up the NFL Draft to select him with the 25th overall pick. He joins one of the best offenses in the league, led by Head Coach Andy Reid and QB Patrick Mahomes. The Chiefs have desperately needed WR depth since Tyreek Hill (WR – MIA) left at the end of the 2021 season. Hill was the last Chiefs WR to have a 1,000-yard receiving season. Last season, rookie Rashee Rice flashed, racking up 938 receiving yards on 79 catches, but is now facing legal troubles and a potential suspension. The Chiefs also added Hollywood Brown (WR – KC) this offseason, but Brown has only had over an 800-yard receiving season once in his career and has had trouble staying healthy lately. Tight end Travis Kelce has been the team’s receiving leader for the last two seasons, with 1,338 yards in 2022 and 984 in 2023. It’s hard to believe that the Chiefs won the Super Bowl and didn’t have a thousand-yard pass catcher on the offense. Mahomes had his lowest passing yard total since 2019, with 4,183. I expect a bounce back to regularity in this passing offense and think Mahomes will return to his usual 4,700 to 5,000 passing yards with the new receiving additions. With Rice expected to miss time, Worthy and his unique skillset could become Patrick’s go-to option when he’s not looking in Kelce’s direction. Worthy has 4.21 speed and should be schemed effectively by Reid. He should surprise some managers with his early production and has the potential to be a fantasy WR3 (top 36) in 2024.
2024 Projection: 95 targets, 70 receptions, 900 receiving yards, with six touchdowns for 196 fantasy points in PPR scoring.
Brian Thomas Jr. (WR – JAX)
Brian Thomas Jr. was selected 23rd overall by the Jacksonville Jaguars. He was overshadowed at LSU by star Malik Nabers (WR – NYG) but still garnered first-round draft capital with 1,177 receiving yards and a whopping 17 touchdowns in his final collegiate season. Jacksonville is an intriguing landing spot as they lost their top receiving yardage leader Calvin Ridley (WR – TEN) in addition to Zay Jones (WR – ARI). Those two alone leave 200 vacated targets with no other significant pass catchers added to the team. Tight end Evan Engram returns to the team after leading the NFL in targets at his position with 143. Wide receiver Christian Kirk is now healthy after missing five games in 2023, and running back Travis Etienne should command 70+ targets again. It’s hard to say how this pass-catching core will shake out in 2023, which means Thomas Jr. has every opportunity to establish himself as Trevor Lawrence‘s favorite target. Standing at over 6’3″, he’s a large target and could find himself useful in the red zone. Lawrence has passed for over 4,000 yards in the past two seasons, so if Thomas Jr. can establish himself early and earn targets, he could have a great rookie season. For now, it’s safe to assume he will be out-targeted by veterans Kirk and Engram and is projected to be a fantasy WR4 (top 48) in 2024.
2024 Projection: 90 targets, 60 receptions, 750 receiving yards, with six touchdowns for 171 fantasy points in PPR scoring.
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