Most Dynasty managers agree that the top tier of Dynasty wide receivers consists of three names: Justin Jefferson, CeeDee Lamb, and Ja’Marr Chase. All three have a combination of youth and immediate league-winning upside. On KeepTradeCut, which displays community-sourced Dynasty rankings, Garrett Wilson is ranked as the WR6 overall. In addition to the three aforementioned superstars, Amon-Ra St. Brown and Marvin Harrison Jr. are also ranked ahead of Wilson. Today, Wilson is firmly in that second tier of Dynasty wide receivers. He’s yet to finish higher than WR30 in PPR points per game in his first two seasons, so one could argue most of his value is projections-based. This is a big season for Wilson; if he fails to produce fantasy points at the same rate these elite receivers are producing, he may find himself stuck in the sea of Dynasty WR2s this time next year. Does he have what it takes to post league-winning numbers and jump into Tier 1? Let’s find out.
Rookie Year (2022)
Garrett Wilson was an early declare out of Ohio State, picked tenth overall in the 2022 NFL Draft. It was apparent this kid was a supreme talent, producing alongside players like Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Chris Olave, Marvin Harrison Jr., and Jameson Williams. As a rookie for the New York Jets, Wilson established himself as the unquestioned top target in this offense. He finished Year 1 with 147 targets, 60 more than the second-highest target earner. According to PlayerProfiler, Wilson posted a target rate of 26.9%, good for WR16 overall. His efficiency off those 147 targets was pretty poor, hauling 83 receptions for 1,103 yards and four touchdowns. But he also had Zach Wilson tossing him the rock, who was analytically one of the worst starting quarterbacks in this century. The peripherals and usage were there for Wilson from Day 1, which is why the Dynasty community still views him so highly.
Year 2 (2023)
Heading into his second season, the excitement around Garrett Wilson and this Jets football team was palpable. New York brought in veteran gunslinger and future Hall-of-Famer Aaron Rodgers to feed their new promising wide receiver. Unfortunately, those dreams were shattered on the first drive of Week 1, as was Rodgers’ achilles. As a result, Wilson had to deal with another season of subpar quarterback play, running routes for Zach Wilson, Tim Boyle, and Trevor Siemian. At times, it seemed like these three were in a competition to see who the most pathetic of the batch was, and they all tied for first. Wilson’s peripherals remained strong, with 163 targets and a 25.2% target rate. But unsurprisingly, his stat sheet didn’t reflect this, ending his second season with 95 receptions, 1,042 yards, and three touchdowns.
The Good
If we’re looking to make the case for Garrett Wilson jumping into the top tier of Dynasty wide receivers, it would be that we haven’t seen a receiver with his level of opportunities and usage since Marvin Harrison. And no, that’s not an exaggeration. Garrett Wilson has the third most targets for a wide receiver in NFL history through their first two seasons; only Marvin Harrison and Jimmy Smith had more. If we’re already getting 150+ targets per season, all we need is a competent quarterback throwing Wilson the football. Aaron Rodgers is back and allegedly healthy, so hopefully, this is the cure for Wilson’s lack of efficiency. His only real competition for targets is 29-year-old Mike Williams, Malachi Corley, and Tyler Conklin, so there’s no reason for us to believe Wilson couldn’t flirt with a 30% target rate in 2024.
The Bad
The case against Wilson as a potential Tier 1 Dynasty wide receiver is pretty simple: we haven’t seen his talent translate to fantasy production yet. Wilson has averaged 12.7 and 12.5 PPR points per game in Years 1 and 2, good for WR30 and WR32 finishes, respectively. We’ve seen a similar projections-based bet with Drake London, who has also dealt with horrific quarterback play but shown us some things from a film and analytical standpoint to be excited about. The problem with a projection-based bet is the risk level you’re taking on. With the age discount you can get on someone like A.J. Brown, you could likely sell Wilson for Brown and an additional asset, and Brown has surpassed 17 PPG in three of his last four seasons.
Conclusion
It’s hard to poke holes in Garrett Wilson’s game. He’s an elite route runner with quickness and burst, has soft hands, and can make the highlight grabs look easy. He’s been the alpha on his team from the moment he stepped onto an NFL field, and he’s getting the ball thrown his way more frequently than we’ve seen in recent history for a kid his age. Wilson’s expected points per game in 2023 were 20.2 FPPG, according to PlayerProfiler, which would have tied him for WR5 overall with Justin Jefferson. We have to expect a positive regression in this department; a negative 7.7 FPPG over expected is almost unheard of.
Because of this, I think Wilson can jump into the “Tier 1” conversation with Jefferson, Chase, and Lamb. It will take a monster third season, but it can be done with a healthy Aaron Rodgers. Wilson is going at the end of the first round in Underdog Drafts, probably the sharpest Redraft ADP you can find. So the market tells us they project Garrett Wilson to finish as a clear WR1 in 2024, and the man has yet to turn 24.
According to Dynasty Data Lab, Wilson is going at the 2.10 spot in Superflex startups. I believe this is a solid value. Despite not posting incredible fantasy production thus far, I see Garrett Wilson as someone with a safe floor and a league-winning ceiling. Invest with confidence on both your contenders and rebuilders.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
