Why Daniel Jones, Brian Daboll, and a change of scenery could be just what Darren Waller needed as he looks to reaffirm his Elite TE status.
PB&J, Burgers & Fries, and Wings & Beer. Arguably some of the better pairings we’ve come to know and love, but there is another beautiful pairing that only comes around once a year; August & Fantasy Football. Redraft season is heating up, “rankings week” has many feeling like they’re at an adult summer camp with no children, and a lot of dynasty leagues that have been quiet since the NFL draft, have begun to stir.
There is no doubt that this is one of the most exciting times of year in the dynasty landscape. Players begin to catch up on the latest camp battles and news as they fine-tune their rosters for the upcoming season. Savvy dynasty players will use this time wisely to take advantage of any market over-corrections to camp news, and there are PLENTY. More importantly, now is one of the last chances you’ll have to get in on some ascending players while there is still an off-season “discount”. If the title didn’t give it away, Darren Waller is someone dynasty players should be checking in on. If you’re a contending team and looking to upgrade at TE, given his relative cost, Darren Waller could be a real difference-maker at a position with few truly elite options.
In my last article, “Buy or Sell: Dynasty Edition”, I discussed honest roster assessment and how to decide when the time is right. In my opinion, this is a perfect time of year to do just that. If you haven’t had a chance to check out that article, HERE is the link.
Waller Things Shall Pass
I’m sure there are a few of you right now saying, “Is he really suggesting to invest in a soon to be 31 year old TE who has had recent injury issues?” Again, going back to his relative cost, the answer is flat-out YES.
Before we get into “Waller’s New World”, I want to look back at the past couple of seasons to understand Waller’s current market value. In 2021, Waller missed one game due to an ankle injury in Week 7, and then in Week 12, he suffered a strained IT band in his knee that kept him out of the next five games before he returned in Week 18. In 2022, Waller suffered a hamstring strain during training camp. Despite this, he was good to go for the start of the regular season. However, the hamstring issue surfaced again in Week 7, and Waller was placed on I.R. and missed a total of eight games before returning in Week 15. For those keeping track at home, Waller has played in 20 of a possible 34 games over the past two seasons. To any Waller owner reading this (myself included), sorry for opening old wounds. There is no doubt that those soft tissue injuries in aging players are worrisome, but at this point, that injury risk has been baked into his cost.
What do I mean by this? Below is a snapshot from Bulletproof that helps us visualize what these injuries have done to his market value over the past several months.
You can see in the graphic above that right around the end of February was actually THE best time to buy Waller, as he was going as low as the 14.07 (pick #162.5) in startup drafts. Funny enough, two weeks after we saw his market value bottom out, Waller was traded to the New York Giants. The trade alone lifted his ADP by 32.5 spots(!) (pick #130) in just two weeks. Since that point, Waller’s market value has been on a slow but steady rise.
All the Waller Things
(Do yourself a favor and say that with Blink 182 in mind 😏)
It’s amazing what a change of scenery can do. As we just discussed, Waller’s value has risen since he was traded to the Giants. But surely that can’t be the only thing driving his value, right? By all accounts, Waller looked fantastic during OTA’s as he started to build his rapport with his new QB, Daniel Jones. The “fresh start” narrative also percolated through the NY Media during this time, and when you combine that with some flashy plays and excited teammates, Waller’s value found some momentum.
As you can see in the snapshot below, Waller’s ADP climbed up to round 8.08 (pick #91.6) following OTA’s. That is almost a 71-spot jump in ADP in just over three months. Side note, this is a PRIME example of why it can still pay to invest in older players in dynasty. If you happened to buy Waller somewhere close to his bottom and you’re still not comfortable with his injury risks, you’ve now put yourself in a position for immediate profit in just a few months on a veteran TE who has battled injuries.
Against Waller Odds
While many will point to injuries as the contributing factor for Waller’s performance decline over the past two seasons, we need to discuss the situation he was in as well. Not only did Derek Carr take a step back from a performance standpoint, but you could also argue that Josh McDaniels was not correctly utilizing Waller to maximize his production/skills.
Waller’s first full season with the Raiders was in 2019. Here are his FPPG ranks and alignment %’s during his first three seasons with them:
- 2019 – 5th in FPPG, Slot (30.7%), Wide (24.6%), Inline (44.7%)
- 2020 – 2nd in FPPG, Slot (20.4%), Wide (24.1%), Inline (54.4%)
- 2021 – 7th in FPPG, Slot (28.8%), Wide (21.8%), Inline (49.4%)
- AVG – 5th in FPPG, Slot (26.6%), Wide (23.5%), Inline (49.5%)
Even though he dealt with injuries in 2021, he was still almost Top 5 at the TE position from an FPPG standpoint. Not only that, when you look at his averages during that three-year window, you can see he averaged a Top 5 finish in FPPG while also averaging a 26.2% slot rate. So what happened in 2022 when Josh McDaniels took over as HC and Waller dropped to 12th in FPPG? Let’s take a look.
- 2022 – 12th in FPPG, Slot (61.9%), Wide (20%), Inline (17.4%)
Waller’s slot rate in 2022 increased by 136%, and his inline rate decreased by 184%, regarding what he averaged from 2019-2021. Now let’s look at Derek Carr and why there is a direct correlation to Waller’s inability to produce when spending that much time in that set of alignments.
In 2022, Derek Carr’s QB rank when targeting slot routes (min. 50 attempts, 35 qualifiers) per @FantasyPtsData:
- Completion % (9th)
- Catchable Throw % (7th)
- Passer Rating with an average depth of 0-9 yards (23rd)
- Passer Rating on all throws (20th)
While Carr was in the top ⅓ in both Completion % and Catchable Throw %, his passer rating with an average depth of target of 0-9 yards ranked 23rd, and he was 20th in overall slot passer rating. From 2019-2021 (Waller’s elite FPPG seasons), Waller’s ADOT averaged 8.7. In 2022, that jumped up to 14.0! Clearly, Mcdaniels’ refusal to pull Waller out of the slot, coupled with Carr’s poor passer rating in the ADOT range that Waller previously thrived in, was a major factor for his decline in 2022.
In 2022, Derek Carr’s QB rank when targeting inline routes (min. 25 attempts, 36 qualifiers) per @FantasyPtsData:
- Completion % (33rd)
- Catchable Throw % (13th)
- Passer Rating with an average depth of 0-9 yards (34th)
- Passer Rating on all throws (35th)
Again, another example of not only McDaniels taking Waller out of the alignments he had tons of prior success in but also Derek Carr’s inability to target these inline routes effectively. Out of 36 qualifiers, Carr was almost dead last in Completion %, passer rating with an average depth of target of 0-9 yards, and passer rating on all inline throws. When you factor in some of the contract disputes Waller had with the Raiders and the overall dysfunction (Carr leaving the team towards the end of the season), it’s clear it was time for a change and for him to get out of dodge.
Waller’s New World
After looking at Daniel Jones’ 2022 season and some of the ways Brian Daboll has utilized his TEs throughout his coaching career, it’s pretty easy to get excited about Waller again. Let’s start by looking at the same set of parameters we looked at initially with Derek Carr and see how much better Jones fared.
In 2022, Daniel Jones’ QB rank when targeting slot routes (min. 50 attempts, 35 qualifiers) per @FantasyPtsData:
- Completion % (1st)
- Catchable Throw % (1st)
- Passer Rating with an average depth of 0-9 yards (1st)
- TDs with an average depth of 0-9 of 0-9 yards (4, T-1st)
- Passer Rating on all throws (7th)
If you can’t tell, based on how Jones performed in the 2022 season (his first under Daboll, by the way), to say Waller is getting an upgrade is a massive understatement. Jones took a step forward in not only his decision-making but as an overall passer in 2022. Consider this: Jones’ Completion % of 73.5% on all throws with an average depth of target of 0-9 yards was 2nd to only Joe Burrow (74%) in 2022. Not only that, Jones saw a 5.5% completion improvement on those throws vs 2021 (68%). We saw what Daboll was able to do with Josh Allen from a development standpoint, and it certainly seems like he has influenced Daniel Jones in the same way. Now that we know that Waller wins on inline routes, let’s look at how Jones performed on those.
In 2022, Daniel Jones’ QB rank when targeting inline routes (min. 25 attempts, 36 qualifiers) per @FantasyPtsData:
- Completion % (7th)
- Catchable Throw % (3rd)
- Passer Rating with an average depth of 0-9 yards (5th)
- TDs with an average depth of 0-9 of 0-9 yards (3, T-2nd)
- Passer Rating on all throws (8th)
THIS is where you can start to see the Giants’ vision for Waller come together. Jones ranked in the 78th percentile or higher in all the categories above, whereas Carr ranked in the 9th percentile or worse in Completion %, passer rating with an average depth of 0-9 yards, and passer rating on all inline throws. Let’s take a look at how Brian Daboll has typically utilized his TEs, as this is where you can really see the path for Waller to regain that ELITE status.
Keep the Waller Rolling
For the sake of this discussion, I wanted to look at how Brian Daboll has most recently utilized his TEs. Before joining the Giants as their HC prior to the 2022 season, Daboll was the OC in Buffalo from 2018-2022, as well as the OC for Nick Saban’s Alabama team in 2017. Here are the alignment rates for TEs under Daboll for the previous five years:
- 2017 – Slot (24.5%), Wide (1.7%), Inline (71.8%)
- 2018 – Slot (45.7%), Wide (7%), Inline (45.2%)
- 2019 – Slot (9.4%), Wide (10.1%), Inline (66.3%)
- 2020 – Slot (26%), Wide (6.9%), Inline (44.3%)
- 2021 – Slot (24.5%), Wide (16.7%), Inline (55.2%)
- AVG – Slot (29.7%), Wide (8.3%), Inline (53%)
Now let’s take a look at how Daboll utilized TEs in his first year with the Giants:
- 2022 – Slot (24.5%), Wide (16.7%), Inline (55.2%)
- 2017 – 2022 AVG (6 total seasons) – Slot (28.6%), Wide (10.1%), Inline (53.5%)
Daboll has made one thing clear over the past six years; he absolutely favors utilizing his TEs on inline routes. Remember earlier when I said this is when you can start to see the path? Just to bring this back to your attention, below are Waller’s alignment rates during his two previous ELITE seasons:
- 2019 – 5th in FPPG, Slot (30.7%), Wide (24.6%), Inline (44.7%)
- 2020 – 2nd in FPPG, Slot (20.4%), Wide (24.1%), Inline (54.4%)
This is why the Giants went out and got Darren Waller. He fits in perfectly with how Daboll likes to use his TEs. Now you’re probably thinking, how did Waller perform on inline routes during 2022? Does he still have the juice?
- Waller’s 2022 inline YPRR rank amongst TEs (min. 40 RR) was 2nd at 2.86, behind only Dallas Goedert at 3.32.
Another piece of information to consider: Daniel Bellinger was the TE1 for the #Giants in 2022. Of 35 TEs who ran at least 225 routes, Bellinger ranked 34th in aDOT & 29th in YPR. Waller ranked 1st in aDOT among TEs with a min. of 225 RR & 1st in YPR at 13.86. Jones has a legitimate field-stretching weapon who is 6’6″, 255, and ran a 4.46 coming out of college. Giving Jones the option to take some deeper shots should help create some much-needed spacing and open things up underneath a little more.
Waller still showed the ability to provide ELITE production when placed inline, and Jones should significantly boost Waller’s efficiency in 2022. Not only should Jones help increase Waller’s efficiency and volume, but now Waller gives Jones a legit option/upgrade in the intermediate passing game. While Jones has shown the ability to improve his decision-making and accuracy, the Giants needed to get him another weapon, and they’ve found what looks like a perfect fit in Darren Waller.
I really appreciate you checking out this article, and hopefully, you feel good about going out and acquiring some Darren Waller!
Check me out on Twitter @DaWiz_FFB for some other quick threads, dynasty analysis, and other FF-related info. Be seeing you and catch you on the flip side. Stay frosty, fam. #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding #DynastyFootball
