Buy or Sell? Dynasty Edition

Finding value within the dynasty landscape can sometimes feel like a daunting task. With all the takes, stats, and data points we have access to now via X (Twitter), it can feel like paralysis by analysis at times. Whether it’s trade calculators, different sets of rankings, or some of your favorite fantasy analysts having completely opposing viewpoints on the same player, defining value can be one of the more difficult avenues a dynasty player has to traverse. Specifically, the art of buying and selling and how to go about it. For the sake of this discussion, I wanted to share a couple of dynasty trades I recently made and discuss the value thought process. In addition, I identified three different options/scenarios involving dynasty running backs that could be buys/sells depending on where your team is in its current lifecycle/league landscape.

When is the right time?

One of the biggest hurdles dynasty players must overcome is knowing when to buy or sell a particular player. The phrase “buy low, sell high” sounds simple, but it can be one of the most challenging concepts to execute correctly when you have an ever-changing market asset. Knowing when to move off or acquire a specific player can impact your dynasty roster for years to come if done incorrectly.

So how do you know when is the “right” time to buy/sell a particular player? The reality is that most dynasty players will rarely sell the absolute peaks, and that’s fine. When managing your roster, your main goal should be to avoid the valleys or the “lows”. One of the cardinal sins of dynasty players is holding onto an asset for too long because you’re chasing the absolute apex value for that particular asset. Avoiding this costly mistake comes with time, experience, and, more importantly, honesty.

In my experience, I have found that some of the best dynasty players in the space have one thing in common. They can honestly assess their current roster construction and be critical when needed. This is where most dynasty players struggle. I have been there and am still learning with each deal I make. Many dynasty players don’t want to admit that the team they have built is not in a position to win because that would be admitting failure to a certain degree. Others will simply put on rose-colored glasses and hope for the best possible outcome for each player—objective vs subjective.

These lines of thinking push dynasty players into making moves that their current roster doesn’t support. I.e., buying and/or selling at the wrong time. It’s important to remember that we are not dealing with certainties regarding fantasy football. Your biggest focus/strategy as a dynasty player should be putting yourself in a position to capitalize on the most probable outcomes.

Where to find value?

Value comes in many different forms when it comes to the dynasty landscape. In my experience, roster construction is crucial to identifying value outside of current market value. For example, if a non-contending team is rostering someone like James Conner (whom I love this year and will discuss later), he holds much less value on that non-contending team than on a contending team. This is why honest roster assessment is so crucial to avoiding the treadmill of mediocrity and building a foundation for long-term success. The goal isn’t to build the youngest or flashiest roster for X (Twitter) clout. The bottom line is, as dynasty players, we are here to win. There is a fine line between constantly finding/accruing value on your roster/within your league and actually competing.

How to Execute

One of my dynasty teams just completed a complete teardown that started in late 2021. You could say 2022 was more of a productive struggle. Going into this season, I find myself a playoff contender and a legit top 3 team in my league. I assessed the landscape of the league (honestly) and concluded that with a couple of moves, I could put myself in championship contention without mortgaging the future.

Below are the two trades I recently made and why I felt they were appropriate from a value perspective.

*For context, this is a 12TM, 1QB, PPR league. 

Before making these trades, I had four 2024 1sts and my 2025 1st. Both Waller and Sanders came from non-contending teams, and I saw it as an opportunity to get a potentially elite option at a position that has so few in TE with Waller. Sanders provides solid running back depth that most championship teams need for that run to the title. 

The Sanders trade was the first domino that led to the Waller trade. I figured it was worth the risk if I could get a solid RB2 who could have potential for fringe RB1 status in Sanders for what should be a 1.09 or later 2024 rookie pick. Specifically, because of the contract Sanders just signed in Carolina, I could potentially utilize him during a push next year as well.

Once I had the running back depth I needed, the only position left to address was TE. I currently roster Sam LaPorta, Chigoziem Okonkwo, Greg Dulcich, and Jelani Woods. All very solid future dynasty options but likely not league-winning TEs this season. Again, moving what should be a late 2025 1st for a high upside play in Waller + what is projected to be an early 3rd in 2024 and my 2025 3rd back; the opportunity cost felt worth it. 

Here is where things get a little interesting. Some of my league-mates noticed my push, and it got their attention. Funny enough, I was offered trades for both Waller and Sanders today. 

• For Waller, I was offered a 2025 1st (likely mid), and now I have the option to pivot back off Waller, and I would’ve added two free 3rd-round picks in the process.
• For Sanders, I was offered Kendre Miller (the 1.08 in our rookie draft) and a 2025 2nd. Again, if I decide to pivot back, I have effectively recouped the initial 1st round pick that I sent for Sanders and likely increased the value of that pick as Kendre was taken at the 1.08, while also picking up another 2nd round pick for essentially free. 

I still have some decisions to make going forward, but I wanted to provide these specific cases as they are prime examples of how honestly assessing the current landscape of your league can return instant value. 

Targets

Now that we’ve gone through all the different variables that need to be considered before buying/selling, let’s look at some candidates of players to target depending on your current situation. While I have marked someone like James Conner as a buy for a contending team, the opposite would hold true for a non-contender.

Contending Buy – James Conner

James Conner is one of my favorite targets for any contending team because of his acquisition cost. Below are some trades that Conner has been involved in over the past two months, courtesy of Bulletproof. I wanted to shout out @Adeiko_ff for a fantastic resource he has put together for the dynasty community, and if you haven’t checked it out yet, I highly recommend it. (Link: Bulletproof)

As you can see in the snapshot above, in many cases, you can go out and acquire James Conner for a bench/depth player + 3rd or 4th-round picks as recently as July 21st.

Here’s what you’re getting in James Conner if you’re a contending team: per @FantasyPtsData, Conner has been Top 10 in FPPG in both 2021 & 2022.

In only 13 games during the 2022 season, he was 10th in total routes run for running backs. In the snapshot below, you can see the kind of company Conner is in regarding big-time fantasy producers at the RB position. As we know, running back targets are fantasy gold, and Conner has continued to earn them at an above-average rate. Conner was only one of 18 running backs to garner at least 50 targets in 2022. The average FPPG for that group was 14.82, which equates to the RB11 in FPPG. 

One final note on James Conner: as we know, the Cardinals coaching staff has undergone a complete makeover this offseason. They brought in Drew Petzing as their offense coordinator, so we have to expect Conner will not be operating in the same offense that Kingsbury ran.

Petzing previously worked as the assistant coach for both the Cleveland Browns and the Minnesota Vikings. So, we will likely see a version of the Stefanski/West Coast offense, which would lean run-heavy. Other teams that run a similar version of this offense are the Chicago Bears, Atlanta Falcons, and Cleveland Browns. What do these three teams have in common? They were all top 6 or better in rushing yards in 2022. Bears 1st, Falcons 3rd, and Browns 6th. Obviously, Justin Fields and Nick Chubb had a lot to do with how well those teams ran the ball, and I am not putting Conner in that Chubb category by any means. But this tells us that opportunity in a beneficial scheme should be there for Conner.

To take this a step further, the Bears and Falcons were 1st and 2nd, respectively, in rushing yards generated out of the Zone Concept. While the Browns had the 16th most rushing yards generated out of the zone concept. So where am I going with this? There were 52 running backs last year with at least 80 rushing attempts. Per @FantasyPtsData, James Conner ranked 2nd in success rate % when running in the Zone Concept. 

Rebuilding Buy – Kendre Miller

Next up is Kendre Miller. While we have yet to see him in a real NFL game, there is a lot to like about the rookie drafted in the 3rd round (71st overall pick) by the New Orleans Saints.

As a rebuilding team, two things are crucial to building that foundation for future success. Number one: hitting on your rookie picks. There is no better way to infuse young talent than via your rookie draft. Number two: acquiring “good” players before others see their value accrual potential, aka “getting in early”. Getting in early is important for two reasons. Your acquisition cost of said player is much lower than what it would be 6-12 months down the road. More importantly, if you “miss” when getting in early on said player, because their acquisition cost is lower, the consequences of that “miss” shouldn’t set your roster back drastically or completely derail your rebuild timeline.  

I looked at the top 5 running backs drafted from the last two NFL draft classes. As you can see in the snapshot below, 50% of those running backs were able to increase their startup draft position from year one to year two. But when accounting for injuries/a team investing higher draft capital in the running back position, you can see only two players, Trey Sermon & Tyrion Davis-Price, were unable to increase their startup value during their rookie season. So barring an injury or the Saints investing a 2nd round pick into the running back position next year and based on the recent trends, Kendre Miller has an 80% chance to improve upon his current dynasty ranking of RB34 by this time next year.

A final note on Kendre, I see his situation as similar to Rachaad White’s for a few reasons.

• Almost identical profiles from an investment and NFL Grade standpoint.
• Both were drafted behind aging veterans, and in Rachaad’s case, we are seeing that value bump due to the Buccaneers moving on from Leonard Fournette. Kendre could be in a very similar position this time next season if the Saints decide to move on from Alvin Kamara. This is well within the range of outcomes given his recent decline in efficiency and future cap hits of $18.9M in 2024 and $29M in 2025.
• While he will have to contend with Jamaal Williams for playing time if Kendre comes out and has a solid rookie season, he could begin to cement himself as the running back of the future in New Orleans. He might also have ample opportunity early on, with a potential Kamara suspension looming.   

Jahmyr Gibbs vs. Travis Etienne

The last potential buy/sell discussion I wanted to cover is the topic of Jahymr Gibbs vs Travis Etienne. Let’s go back to the beginning of this discussion regarding roster construction and accruing value. Like many others, I am in the camp of Jahmyr Gibbs accruing more value than Travis Etienne over the next two seasons. Full disclosure, I own Travis Etienne on a contending roster right now, and this is a swap I am actively trying to make.

Currently, DFF AccuRankings have Jahmyr Gibbs ranked as RB5, and Travis Etienne ranked as RB7. 

Even though it may seem overzealous to flip a running back in Travis Etienne, whom we have already seen be successful in the NFL, for an unproven rookie in Gibbs, the buying opportunity before his value likely increases seems too good to pass up.

There is no question that Etienne flashed tantalizing potential during his first full season in the NFL. From weeks 8-17 (after the James Robinson trade), Etienne averaged 13.9 FPG, which was good for RB16 during that stretch. While we know what we are getting in Etienne, the Jaguars drafted Tank Bigsby in the 3rd round of the NFL draft to help him carry the load for the Jags. Pederson is also notorious for using an RBBC approach. When you factor in the lack of pass-catching we saw from Etienne in 2022 and his struggles at the goal line, there is some cause for concern that Bisby could garner some of those high-value touches that dynasty players covet. While early reports out of camp have been positive regarding Etienne’s pass-catching ability, the more prominent item of concern is his QB, Trevor Lawrence. There were 39 QBs in 2022 to attempt at least 150 passes. Trevor Lawrence finished dead last in check-down rate % at 2.6%. If Etienne’s rushing workload is reduced via Bigsby, I am concerned about his opportunity to make that up via the receiving game.

One of the main reasons I find Gibbs so enticing is that you are getting an ascending asset that may not only replicate but improve upon the production you would be sending away in Etienne.

Given Gibbs’s draft capital, there is a 77% chance you’re getting an RB2 which is where Etienne finished last year. Not only that, Gibbs has a 62% chance to finish as an RB1 in his rookie season. Coming out of college, Gibbs receiving prowess is on par with, if not higher regarded than, CMC’s when he came out. As I said before, targets are gold at the RB position in fantasy football, and Gibbs could be in line to be among the league leaders at his position in his rookie season.

It would not surprise me if we are talking about Jahmyr Gibbs as the clear dynasty RB2 behind Bijan Robinson this time next year. 

These are some of the more recent trades for Gibbs I pulled via Bulletproof. As an Etienne owner, I have already floated the idea to the Gibbs owner in my league and am willing to add a late 2024 1st and even a 3rd round pick if need to acquire Gibbs. It might not be like trading for Bijan, but trying to pry Gibbs from other dynasty players this time next season will be extremely difficult without overpaying significantly.

I really appreciate you checking out this article, and I hope you came away with something you can incorporate into your Dynasty strategy!

Check me out on Twitter @DaWiz_FFB for some other quick threads, Dynasty analysis, and other FF-related info. Be seeing you and catch you on the flip side. Stay frosty, fam. #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding #DynastyFootball