If you’re reading this it’s not too late (shoutout to Drake). First off, my name is Dan Whisner and this will be the first article in an ongoing series where I’ll try to highlight some interesting/objective fantasy football statistics that can hopefully give you something to think about when targeting players for your Dynasty/fantasy football rosters. I’ll also provide an in-depth look at what makes up a great Dynasty WR and what metrics to prioritize when targeting players.
The revolution is here, and it is being led by WRs. In the last several years, the young WRs in particular, have changed the way many Dynasty managers have gone about building out their rosters for future success. We have seen numerous rookie wideouts make immediate impacts and become the foundation teams are now built around. The NFL has recently changed in more ways than one. We are in the “Air Raid” era that has allowed rookie WRs to come in and make an immediate impact.
Outside of that, Dynasty managers have also grown smarter. The days of the “bell cow” RB seem to be fading. Targeting these young WRs with a long shelf life who are usually less prone to injury is something that has taken the fantasy/Dynasty community by storm. For this discussion, I took a deep dive into 2022 stats and looked at the average performance of the top 10 WRs from 2016 – 2022 for context. We’re trying to find the guys who are “up next” so you can target them before they pop and give you a leg up on your league mates. The players we’ll cover below are the leaders in the clubhouse to become the next “I am HIM” (shoutout to Stefon Diggs).
As I mentioned before, Dynasty managers are getting smarter. One of the main drivers of this is the availability of advanced metrics and analyzing them to get ahead of your competition. FYI, I used an 85 target minimum for everything but Fantasy Points/ Snap. For that, I used 380 as the league AVG for 2022 WRs was 385. Let’s go ahead and dive into the top 20 performers for some of these advanced metrics and see who in this 2022 group stood out.
Before we get into some of the real “nerdy” stats, one of the first metrics I wanted to look at in order to get a baseline was Fantasy Points per Snap. (FPTS/Snap) What does FPTS/ snap tell us? These are players that made the most of their time on the field from a production standpoint. As you can see in the snapshot below, this group is a who’s who of what many consider to be some of the top WRs in Dynasty.
As I said, a lot of the usual suspects dominate this list but some of the aforementioned rookie WRs also make an appearance. One of the guys that jumps out right off the bat and whom we are going to touch on multiple times throughout this article is Chris Olave who looks to affect New Orleans Saints’ upcoming odds to win the Super Bowl.
Any time you find yourself in a group of Tyreek, Kupp, Diggs, Jefferson, and Waddle, you have to be excited and frankly, any Olave Dynasty owner has a lot to be excited about. He averaged the sixth-most FPTS/ snap in 2022. If there is a common thing when it comes to Olave’s rookie season it’s efficiency. Not only did Olave perform well against his peers in 2022, but he also held up incredibly well against the Top 20 from 2016 – 2022.
As you can see in the graphic above, Olave’s ’22 season came in 29.4% higher than the average top 20 FPTS/ snap for qualifying WRs from 2016 – 2022. Let’s take that one step further though. How did Olave’s ’22 season compare to the top 6 from 2016 – 2022? (see below)
Olave’s 0.33 FPTS/ snap is almost exactly in line with what each of the top 6 WRs in this category has averaged over the past seven seasons including 2022. This is where it gets even better. His 0.33 mark is also the highest of any qualifying rookie from 2016 – 2022. The average scoring rank of the players that finished in the top 6 in FPTS/ snap is 5.4. Essentially what we’re saying here is from an FPTS/snap standpoint, Olave performed as a top-5 WR vs the last seven seasons. Now what do we need for Olave to actually join that group from a scoring perspective? Snaps, snaps, and more snaps. The top 20 WRs in this group averaged 750 snaps but due to two missed games and not playing as much on early downs, Olave came in at just 607. If he can get up to that 750 range and still maintain a 0.33 FPTS/ snap rate, we could be looking at a finish of around 245 fantasy points which would’ve been good right around WR12 this year. If he can creep into the 800s (his college teammate Garrett Wilson finished with 884), even with regression in efficiency, we could be in for a fringe top-10 season as early as next year.
I also want to call out Christian Watson here. While he didn’t qualify for the remaining metrics we’ll go through below as he didn’t hit the 85 target minimum, it’s hard to not like what we saw. Even with Rodgers most likely on his way out the door, given the lack of competition Watson has for targets (GB probably looks to add help in the Draft) even if Watson takes a slight hit on efficiency his volume will increase in 2023 and the future is bright for the young GB stud.
Next up from a metric discussion is aDOT or Average Depth of Target. Essentially what we’re talking about here is how deep down the field Olave’s average target is. Coming out of Ohio State, Olave was known for his propensity to get open down the field and we have seen that translate to the NFL immediately.
Not only was Olave second in the league in 2022, but he was also the only player in the NFL that was top 10 in both FPTS/ snap and aDOT (sixth and second, respectively). The closest anyone else came to finishing that high in both categories? Tyreek Hill (first in FPTS/ snap & 13th in aDOT) and A.J. Brown (13th in FPTS/ snap and 10th in aDOT). In addition to that, his mark of 14.9 was right in line with the top 10 WRs in aDOT for the last seven seasons.
There’s another guy that finished 16th in both FPTS/ snap and aDOT that has been quite the topic of conversation this off-season – Jerry Jeudy. With as bad as the Broncos looked at times last season, Jeudy had the best year of his career (WR22). Sean Payton and the Broncos’ camp have gone back and forth on if Jeudy is actually available or not but even if he ends up staying in Denver, I like Jeudy to take another step forward this year and potentially finish as a top-15 WR.
Yards per Route Run has become one of the more heavily relied-on advanced metrics when it comes to WRs and for good reason. Typically if a WR finds themselves near the top of the league in this stat, they’re not just a solid WR for your Dynasty, they’re most likely one of your foundational pieces.
Take the graphic above for example. Thirteen of the top 15 scoring WRs are in the top 20 in YPRR. Olave doesn’t just find himself on this list, he clocks in here at number seven. For those keeping track at home, he is now at least top-7 in each of the stats/metrics discussed so far. Also, anytime you find one of your Dynasty players sandwiched between Davante Adams and Cooper Kupp, you’ve got to feel good. The fact that he did this in his ROOKIE season with not-terrible, but less-than-stellar QB play from Andy Dalton, is even more impressive.
Another interesting name on this list is another rookie WR from the 2022 class. Drake London checks in here at #13. Even though he had to deal with Arthur Smith refusing to call passing plays more often than not, when the Falcons did go to the air it was largely through the big-bodied London. Yes, Kyle Pitts was out for most of the year last year but the 2.07 YPRR mark speaks to the efficiency London had when targeted.
In fact, it was Drake London who led all rookies in target share when on the field at 34%. London finished with a 29.1% target share overall which was good for top-5 in the league and only behind Davante, Kupp, Tyreek, and Chase. There is A LOT to like about London going forward and he is someone I would be aggressively targeting in dynasty leagues especially when you consider he played most of this season at 20 years old. Falcons insist Ridder is their guy and if he can take any kind of step forward next year, London should benefit. BUY TALENT, plain and simple.
The last thing I wanted to cover is something I dove into this past week. We all know volume is king when it comes to fantasy football. But I also wanted to look at this another way. Who is getting those pressure situation targets that move the chains? I took a look at first down conversions/snaps and the list below has the usual suspects but also some fun fantasy targets for Dynasty managers.
Surprise, surprise. Our guy Olave checks in at number five here again. If you’re paying attention, BUY Chris Olave. Obviously, everyone has a price but there is a lot of underlying data that says with a bit more volume, we may be looking at the “next” young WR stud.
Making his first appearance on one of these lists is Olave’s college teammate, Garrett Wilson. It’s actually hard to believe that this is the first time the OROY has come up but he’s been the talk of fantasy circles during a good part of this off-season. While we haven’t talked about him just yet, Wilson had a fantastic rookie season pulling down 83 catches for 1,103 yards and four TDs. The most impressive part about his rookie season is he accomplished those marks with Zach Wilson, Joe Flacco, and Mike White at the helm. For context, Wilson had a 2.12 YPRR with Joe Flacco at QB which would’ve put him ahead of Drake London and inside the top 15 in YPRR. Even though Aaron Rodgers isn’t the Rodgers of old anymore, any kind of upgrade for Wilson should be fireworks. He’s another guy whose price has gone up over the last few months but also someone whom I am comfortable overpaying for a little as he’s 22 and already commanding an insane amount of volume with 147 targets in his rookie season.
Wanted to share a few more data points when it comes to 1st down conversions/snaps.
I found this interesting. Using the data from 2016 – 2022, if a player finishes inside the top 20 in first down conversions/ snap, there is a 76.4% chance one of them finishes with at least WR2 status. Better yet, 50% of the time you’re getting a WR1 finish out of that player. Yes, volume is great in fantasy football, we all know this but finding the guys that get those high-pressure looks can pay dividends as well.
Since 2016, players that have finished in the top 20 in first down conversions/snaps have finished with an average scoring rank of 15.34. Again, find the guys that garner those move-the-chains type targets and more often than not, you’re going to find yourself a fringe WR1.
To take our first down conversions/snap discussion even further, this is another breakdown I found interesting. Players that finished in the top 10 in conversions/snap also finished in or just outside the top 10 in scoring. Going back to our list, you can see that even though Olave finished 25th in scoring and Wilson finished 21st, they finished fifth and 11th respectively in first down conversions/snap. Olave is behind Kupp and Wilson coming in behind CeeDee but ahead of Davante. Just another data point that confirms that these young OSU WRs are the real deal and be treated as such when dealing for them in Dynasty.
And finally, players to average at least a 7% first down conversion/ snap rate from 2016 – 2022 have been top-10 WRs. Olave came in at almost 8%. This metric is something I plan to keep an eye on throughout 2023 to try and get ahead of which rookies are earning those high-pressure looks that drive real fantasy value. These are just a few of the metrics that I look at when thinking about potential WR targets in Dynasty.
If you’ve made it this far, I really appreciate you checking out this article and I hope you came away with something you can incorporate into your Dynasty strategy!
Check me out on Twitter @DaWiz_FFB for some other quick threads, Dynasty analysis, and other FF-related info. Be seeing you and catch you on the flip side. Stay frosty, fam. #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding #DynastyFootball
