A rookie rewind is a way of gauging the value change of rookies from pre-season to post-season. It not only discusses the value change but also examines why the value changed. All the wide receiver value data comes from KeepTradeCut, which crowdsources information in real time. Many of the statistics are sourced from ProFootballFocus (PFF).
Definition list:
Yards after the Catch per Reception(YAC/R) – The number of yards a receiver gains after the catch per reception.
Average Depth of Target(ADoT) – The average depth of a receiver per target
Yards per Route Run(YPRR) – An efficiency metric that takes a receiver’s total yardage and divides it into the total number of routes run.
Targets per Route Run(T/RR) – A target rate metric that divides the total number of targets a receiver gets by the total number of routes run.
Pre-Season Ranks
There was a consensus top four to this receiver class, and they were Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR – SEA), Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC), Zay Flowers (WR – BAL), and Jordan Addison (WR – MIN). Their WR value data is from September 7th, the opening day of the regular season. I picked out notable receivers and ranked them off of my pre-season ranks (There were gaps of less-notable receivers in between a few of these guys post WR7):
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (WR11)
Zay Flowers (WR23)
Jordan Addison (WR16)
Jonathan Mingo (WR44)
Quentin Johnston (WR26)
Tank Dell (WR63)
Josh Downs (WR56)
Rashee Rice (WR52)
Dontayvion Wicks (WR116)
Jayden Reed (WR54)
Puka Nacua (WR70)
Pre-Season Overview
Jaxon Smith-Njigba was not going into the ideal situation for immediate production. However, Geno Smith had just played well the previous year, so there might be room for some production alongside Tyler Lockett and D.K. Metcalf.
Zay Flowers had landed in the dream scenario. There was no established weapon outside of Mark Andrews. Rashod Bateman and Odell Beckham Jr. were the top veterans but had not proven themselves.
Jordan Addison came in and was locked into the WR2 role on the Vikings. Kirk Cousins is a good quarterback and can spread the ball around. Defenses flock towards Justin Jefferson, which may open up targets for Addison.
In another dream scenario, Jonathan Mingo had landed with no established veteran receivers. Bryce Young was a high-floor prospect who could get Mingo some targets for some early production.
Quentin Johnston had landed in the one place where he would have time to develop behind Keenan Allen and Mike Williams. Justin Herbert is an established quarterback, and there could be a future connection.
Tank Dell had landed in a questionable scenario from a floor perspective. There were not a lot of established pieces outside of Dameon Pierce and Laremy Tunsil. C.J. Stroud was supposed to be a project; the only other hopeful weapon was Nico Collins.
Josh Downs was walking into a questionable situation, where he was, at best, the WR2 behind Michael Pittman Jr. He also had an unknown at quarterback with the uncertainty of how Anthony Richardson would pan out.
Rashee Rice is another scenario where the team does not have an abundance of established weapons. You have the best quarterback in the league with Patrick Mahomes. The only established weapon was Travis Kelce Isiah Pacheo and potentially Kadarius Toney.
Dontayvion Wicks, a slept-on prospect, landed in a scenario with a question at quarterback, Jordan Love. They also brought in Jayden Reed and tight-ends Tucker Kraft and Luke Musgrave. They had several established weapons in Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Aaron Jones, and AJ Dillon. (Same notes for Jayden Reed)
Puka Nacua, a day-three prospect, came into an awkward situation with Matthew Stafford and Cooper Kupp being hurt most of the previous season. The only other receiver is Ben Skowronek.
Current Outlook
(The target threshold for stats is 57+, so all ten WRs qualify; a total of 72 WRs qualify)
Jaxon Smith-Njigba did not produce as the community expected, and these stats have no saving grace. He had 90 targets, 63 receptions, and 628 receiving yards. He ranks 41st, 37th, and 51st, respectively. Jaxon had an ADoT of 6.4 and YAC/R of 5.9, which ranks 70th and 10th. His YPRR was 1.32, ranking 55th. He had a T/RR of 18.9%, which ranks 47th.
The bright side to Njigba is that Tyler Lockett is aging, and Jaxon missed most of pre-season with a wrist injury. The raw stats, targets, receptions, yards, and YAC/R looked good for someone who was the WR3; the efficiency stats, YPRR, and T/RR do not look great, but he is the WR3 on his team. By ADP, Njigba is WR18 and is currently going at the back end of the fourth round of Superflex Startups.
Zay Flowers came out of the gates very hot; the stats reflect it. He had 104 targets, 77 receptions, and 858 yards. He ranks, 30th, 22nd, and 33rd. He has an ADoT of 8.8 and YAC/R of 5.1, which rank 59th and 23rd, respectively. He had a YPRR of 1.64, ranking 40th. Finally, his T/RR was 19.9%, which ranks 42nd.
For a rookie receiver, these stats are spectacular. The advanced stats aren’t great, but he looks the part. All the traits on his college tape have shown up well. With another season under his belt, Flowers should take a step. By ADP, Flowers is WR16 and is currently going at the back end of the middle of the fourth round of Superflex Startups.
Jordan Addison became the WR1 of the Vikings early on with Justin Jefferson’s injury. He had 104 targets, 70 receptions, and 911 yards, which ranks 30th across the board. He had an ADoT of 12.5 and a YAC/R of 3.8, which rank 26th and 45th, respectively. His YPRR was 1.5, and his T/RR was 17.2%. Those stats rank 49th and 55th, respectively.
Addison is another situation where the traits transferred, and he looked good stepping into the WR1 role for a chunk of the middle of the season. The stats reflect the traits well: deep threat with subpar YAC ability. By ADP, Addison is WR14 and is currently going at the early part of the fourth round of Superflex Startups.
Jonathan Mingo did not claim a role as a true weapon for Bryce Young. He had 83 targets, 43 receptions, and 418 yards, which ranks 47th, 57th, and 69th. Mingo had an ADoT of 10.6 and YAC/R of 3.7, which rank 47th in both stats. He had a YPRR of 0.78 and a T/RR of 15.4%, which ranks 71st and 61st, respectively.
By far, Mingo was the receiver that was the most underwhelming. He did not have a good production profile in college, and his lack of production has continued. He could not even carve out a role in the putrid Panthers’ offense. By ADP, Mingo is WR57 and is currently going at the early in the 13th round of Superflex Startups.
Quentin Johnston had the opportunity to step up in the absence of Mike Williams and Josh Palmer, but he did not. He had 65 targets, 38 receptions, and 431 yards; these rank 62nd, 65th, and 67th, respectively. He had an ADoT of 13 and YAC/R of four; these rank 22nd and 40th, respectively. Johnston’s YPRR and T/RR were 0.88 and 13.3%, ranking 67th and 66th, respectively.
I think it’s safe to say that the traits he showed on his college tape translated. Given this rookie year, turning it around and becoming a real fantasy producer will be hard. By ADP, Johnston is WR50 and is currently going at the late in the 12th round of Superflex Startups.
Tank Dell only played eleven games but dominated in those games. He had 74 targets, 47 receptions, and 709 yards. He ranked 55th, 54th, and 45th, respectively. Dell’s ADoT and YAC/R are 14.4, 8th, and 3.1, 59th. His YPRR and T/RR were 2.22 and 23.1%, which rank 16th and 22nd, respectively.
He can be a fantasy producer with the production and what he showed on the field. He is tied to one of the best young quarterbacks in the league and has a very good other target in Nico Collins. The major downside, size, caused the injury: he broke his leg in the middle of a pile blocking. By ADP, Dell is WR19 and is currently going late in the fourth round of Superflex Startups.
Josh Downs had a great year behind Pittman, with Gardner Minshew starting most of the year. He had 94 targets, 68 receptions, and 771 yards. These stats ranked him 36th, 32nd, and 38th, respectively. He had an ADoT and YAC/R of 7.4 and 5.5, which ranked him 65th and 19th. Downs had a YPRR and T/RR of 1.6, ranking 42nd, and 19.5%, ranking 43rd.
He performed very well with a backup quarterback and has no path to being the number one option on the Colts. We can see that through the YAC/R, which is one of his strongest traits on college tape. By ADP, Downs is WR31 and is currently in the middle of the seventh round of Superflex Startups.
Rashee Rice stepped up into the WR1 role on the Cheifs and excelled. He had 100 targets, 79 receptions, and 937 yards. These stats rank 32nd, 21st, and 28th. His ADoT and YAC/R were 5.2 and 8.3, which rank 72nd and second, respectively. Rice had a YPRR and T/RR of 2.39 and 25.5%. Those stats rank tenth and 14th.
Rice’s stats are up there, with some of the best in this class. Yes, he was gadgety, but he showed elite YAC ability, giving you nearly an extra fantasy point after the catch. By ADP, Rice is WR23 and is currently going at the early in the fifth round of Superflex Startups.
Dontayvion Wicks stepped into a role with a crowded receiver room but showed that he has the potential to be a contributor. He had 57 targets, 39 receptions, and 580 yards. These rank 72nd, 65th, and 55th. He had an ADoT and YAC/R of 10.6 and 5.6, which ranked 46th and 15th, respectively. Wicks’ YPRR and T/RR were 2.04, ranking 23rd, and 20%, ranking 39th.
He showed that even in a crowded room, he can be efficient with that excellent YPRR. He had a solid ADoT and fantastic YAC/R. Given the decline of Watson, Wicks could be a sneaky buy. By ADP, Wicks is WR44 and is in the middle of the 12th round of Superflex Startups.
Jayden Reed was spectacular to close out the season and won a lot of people their championships. He had 90 targets, 64 receptions, and 793 yards. Those stats rank 40th and 35th for both receptions and yards. His ADoT and YAC/R were 10.3 and 5.4, which rank 50th and 20th, respectively. Reed’s YPRR and T/RR are 2.05, ranking 21st, and 23.3%, ranking 20th.
Reed is a dynamic player and, like Wicks, could end up separating himself from the rest of the receivers in that Packers receiver room. He’s efficient, getting opportunities at a high rate, and doing well with the opportunities. By ADP, Reed is WR24 and is currently going late in the fifth of Superflex Startups.
Puka Nacua, he balled out! He had 153 targets, 105 receptions, and 1486 yards. These rank seventh, eighth, and fourth. He had an ADoT and YAC/R of 9.4 and six, which rank 56th and seventh, respectively. Nacua’s YPRR and T/RR were 2.59 and 26.7%. He ranks eighth in both of those stats.
Nacua broke the rookie receptions and yardage record; compared to Randy Moss, he did have an extra week. All of the production is elite. He’s so talented and fits the Rams’ scheme very well. By ADP, Nacua is WR5 and is currently going early in the second round of Superflex Startups.
Summary
Puka Nacua has cemented his position as WR1 of this class. After him, I have Dell, Flowers, Rice, Smith-Njigba, and Reed. There is a break before I get to Downs and Wicks and another before I have Mingo and Johnston.
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