If you’ve been following the NFL at all this season, especially recently on Twitter/X, you’ll see an interesting dialogue occurring about Puka Nacua (WR – LAR). Let’s look at an example:
If you’re part of the 68.5% like myself, you’re probably asking yourself “Why on Earth would I trade Puka Nacua, a 22-year-old rookie who’s producing 17.7PPG, for another rookie?” As I replied to Mike, “It’s a bird in the hand vs. a bird in the bush. I don’t know what more people want to see from Puka at this point.” So why are people 31.5% of people voting for the 2024 rookie? Let’s take a look as we decide what to do with Puka Nacua.
Right off the bat, let’s look at the positives:
Through 15 games, Nacua has amassed 1327 yards (5th all-time) and 96 receptions (3rd all-time) while only catching 5 TDs. He’s averaged 17.7PPG (6th all-time, min. 10 games) despite the lack of touchdowns on 146 targets (3rd all-time). He still has one more game to add to these totals to compare to the all-time greats (remember, most played 16-game seasons). As of week 14, he has a 28.8% target share (9th in the league) and a 28.9% TPRR (4th). He also has the benefit of playing with one of the best offensive head coaches in the NFL: Sean McVay, and has Matthew Stafford (QB – LAR) as his quarterback.
And now, the negatives:
He was drafted in the 5th-round of the NFL Draft. He has a low ADoT (9.0). He plays with Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford (yes, these are negatives according to Twitter).
That’s it.
Let’s break down the negatives!
5th-round pick – This could have been a point to make after week one, but 16 weeks in, you’ve got to let your priors go. I’m as big of a fan of draft capital as the next guy, but once a wide receiver (or quarterback, *cough* Brock Purdy (QB – SF) *cough*) has produced this consistently, draft capital matters much less than a player’s current production. This is not always the case, such as with productive late-round running backs, but the data seems to suggest that this is for a few reasons: running back is the least important and most easily replaceable position in the NFL, and while vacated targets don’t seem to exist (if Cooper Kupp (WR – LAR) gets hurt, Nacua doesn’t absorb all of Kupp’s targets; Nacua has to earn a target against the opposing defenders), vacated rushes do seem to exist (if Derrick Henry (RB – TEN) gets hurt, Tyjae Spears (RB – TEN) could absorb many of his rushes, as rushes are a coaching decision. This doesn’t necessarily mean he will be as productive).
All of this is to say—Nacua has earned his production as much as a first-round pick earns theirs. Didn’t we do this whole song-and-dance with Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET) a few years back?
Low ADoT – I do not care. As much as this is a cop-out answer, are you seriously asking me if I care that the 5th all-time leader in rookie receiving yards has a low ADoT? He produces.
He plays with Sean McVay and Matthew Stafford – Now this is where the head scratching comes in. Stafford is getting old, yes, but the Rams don’t have a potential out until 2025 if they want out. Furthermore, the Rams offensive is incredible –
So as long as Stafford doesn’t retire and McVay sticks around, we should see no reason for Nacua’s production to fall off. The last thing about this point is the hypotheticals – “If Nacua played on the Jets and Garrett Wilson (WR – NYJ) played on the Rams, Nacua wouldn’t have 500 yards and Wilson would have 2000.” Well, it’s a good thing Nacua is on the Rams then.
Last Thoughts
Our site motto here at DFF is “Always Be Building.” While I don’t disagree with this premise for Dynasty, I think some managers fall into a “constantly rebuilding” mindset—any win in value must be realized by selling players who have accrued value. This is a game, it’s meant to be fun, and what’s more fun than riding with a dude who you potentially grabbed off waivers? That’s what I told myself when I didn’t trade Nacua for a 2024 2nd-round pick after his 20-target debut, and I’m glad I didn’t. Not only was this fun, it was also profitable.
This isn’t my advice always (like with late-round running backs who see an uptick in production), but you have to look at internal metrics to decide who’s the real deal (buy) and who’s flash in a pan (sell). Puka Nacua is as real as it gets. BUY.
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