Opportunity Knocks: NFL Shares to Watch – Week 12

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Opportunity is king in fantasy football. Tracking player volume and snaps each season helps managers get ahead of coaching trends while making advanced moves on the trade market and waiver wires. In this recurring weekly series, we will look at all 32 teams’ most notable market shares (percentage of team output) in targets, opportunities, and rushing/receiving production. With Week 11 in the rearview, let’s dive into some exciting usage data around the NFL as we prepare for the upcoming slate of games.

Arizona Cardinals

  • DeAndre Hopkins is locked and loaded as a must-start asset. Hopkins recorded 12 targets (27.3%) despite playing 69.0% of the offensive snaps (49) in a blowout loss.
  • Rondale Moore will reportedly miss the Cardinals’ Week 12 matchup with a groin injury. Moore exited Week 11 with said injury after playing just two snaps.
  • Greg Dortch is relevant once again now that the Cardinals’ slot receiver role has been vacated by Moore’s unfortunate injury. Dortch led the Cardinals with 93.0% of the offensive snaps (66), earning 10 targets (22.7%).
  • The return of Marquise Brown is imminent and fast approaching. The issuance of opportunities will surely look different than they have in recent weeks.
  • Rookie tight end Trey McBride received his first start of the season, filling in for injured teammate Zach Ertz. McBride played 76.0% of the offensive snaps (54), earning four targets (9.1%).

Atlanta Falcons

  • Cordarrelle Patterson’s managers have justified concerns surrounding the veteran running back’s usage. Patterson has yet to play more than 50.0% of the offensive snaps since returning from injured reserve. He recorded a 10.0% target share (2) and 52.6% rushing share (10 RSH) in Week 11.
  • Patterson set the NFL record for most kick return touchdowns in a career, tallying his 9th against the Bears.
  • Tyler Allgeier continues to steal valuable work from his veteran teammate. The Falcons rookie played 55.0% of the offensive snaps, earning eight carries (42.1 RSH%) and one target (5.0%).
  • Drake London saw a team-high target share of 15.0%, needing just three targets to accomplish the mediocre feat.
  • Kyle Pitts was placed on injured reserve following a torn MCL.

Baltimore Ravens

  • Demarcus Robinson erupted in Week 11, playing 78.0% of the offensive snaps with a 27.3% target share (9 TGT). Robinson caught all nine of his targets for 128 yards. He should maintain some relevance moving forward.
  • Mark Andrews suited up despite suffering through a shoulder injury. He played a team-high 93.0% of the offensive snaps (64), catching six of eight targets (24.2%) for 63 yards.
  • Kenyan Drake led the Ravens backfield with 35 snaps (51.0%), ten carries (58.8 RSH%), and four targets (12.1%).
  • Justice Hill played a secondary role, earning 28 snaps (41.0%), seven carries (41.2 RSH%), and three targets (9.1%).

Buffalo Bills

  • Josh Allen completed 18/27 pass attempts for a mere 197 yards with only one touchdown. Allen manages just seven yards rushing.
  • Gabe Davis saw a surprising team-high 25.9% target share (7 TGT) while leading the receivers with 88.0% of the offensive snaps (57).
  • Stefon Diggs took a back seat to Davis, recording 66.0% of the offensive snaps (43) with five targets (18.5%).
  • Devin Singletary dominated the Bills’ backfield usage with a 72.0% snap share (47) and a 6.0% rushing share (18 RSH). Singletary found the endzone rushing for 86 yards in the win.
  • James Cook had a mini-breakout game, rushing for 86 yards on 11 carries (36.7 RSH%). He played 16 snaps (25.0%).
  • Dawson Knox played 80.0% of the offensive snaps (52), matching Davis with seven targets (25.9%)

Carolina Panthers

  • Baker Mayfield got the start at quarterback, supplanting an injured P.J. Walker. Mayfield completed 21/33 pass attempts for 196 yards with no touchdowns and two interceptions.
  • The quarterback carousel continues in Carolina as the Panthers announced Sam Darnold as the starter for Week 12.
  • D’Onta Foreman rushed 11 times for 24 yards, playing 39.0% of the offensive snaps (22) with a 73.3% rushing share.
  • Chuba Hubbard is nothing more than a supplementary option at this juncture. Hubbard played one more snap (23) than Foreman, earning four carries (26.7 RSH%) with three targets (9.1%).
  • D.J. Moore and Terrace Marshall played equal snaps with 56 (98.0%) apiece. Marshall earned six targets (18.2%) compared to Moore’s five (15.2%).
  • Marshall led the team with 76 receiving yards on three receptions. Moore caught three of his targets for 24 yards.

Chicago Bears

  • Justin Fields completed 14/21 pass attempts for 153 yards with one touchdown and one interception. Fields rushed 18 times for 85 yards, adding another touchdown on the ground. He exited the contest with a dislocated left (non-throwing) shoulder and should be considered questionable for Week 12.
  • David Montgomery handled an increased workload with Khalil Herbert now on injured reserve. Montgomery recorded 119 scrimmage yards (67 RSH YDS/54 REC YDS) with one touchdown on 20 touches (17 RSH/3 REC). He played 80.0% of the offensive naps (55), earning a 19.0% target share and 73.9% rushing share.
  • Chase Claypool saw six targets in his first game with the Bears but has just five total targets since. Claypool earned three targets (14.3%) in Week 11, playing 42.0% of the offensive snaps (29).
  • Darnell Mooney led the Bears receivers with an 81.0% snap share (56) and five targets (23.8%). Mooney caught four receptions for 29 yards and his second touchdown of the season.
  • Cole Kmet’s two-game streak of two-touchdown performances ended in Week 11. Kmet was targeted four times (19.0%) while playing 63 snaps (91.0%). 

Cincinnati Bengals

  • Tee Higgins did not record a single target through the first quarter of the Bengals’ Week 12 game. He then proceeded to record nine receptions on 13 targets (33.3%) for 148 yards.
  • Tyler Boyd paced Higgins with an 82.0% snap share (54), earning seven targets (17.9%).
  • Joe Mixon exited the game with a concussion and is doubtful to play in Week 12.
  • Samaje Perine took over lead duties, playing 70.0% of the offensive snaps (46) with a 55.0% rushing share (11 RSH) and 10.3% target share (4 TGT). Perine managed 82 scrimmage yards (30 RSH YDS/52 REC YDS) with three receiving touchdowns on four receptions.

Cleveland Browns 

  • Amari Cooper broke his drought of terrible road game performances, albeit on a neutral field. Cooper registered eight receptions on 12 targets (29.3%) for 113 yards and two touchdowns.
  • Donovan Peoples-Jones continues to rise as a serviceable secondary receiver. Peoples-Jones played a team-high 99.0% of the offensive snaps, earning six targets. 
  • Rookie wide receiver David Bell played a season-high 64.0% of the offensive snaps (48), earning a 12.2% target share (5).
  • Nick Chubb has long-surpassed Kareem Hunt in what used to be a backfield-by-committee. Chubb played 55.0% of the offensive snaps (41), recording a 73.7% rushing share (14 RSH) and one more target (3) than Hunt.
  • Hunt, on the other hand, played 32 snaps (43.0%) with five carries (26.3%) and two targets (4.9%). 

Dallas Cowboys 

  • Tony Pollard is a plug-and-play, high-upside, guaranteed RB1 whenever he is the starter, regardless if Ezekiel Elliott is active or not. Pollard tallied 189 scrimmage yards (80 RSH YDS/109 REC YDS) on 21 touches (15 RSH/6 REC) with two receiving touchdowns in Week 11. The Cowboys running back played 54.0% of the offensive snaps (39).
  • Elliott matched Pollard with 15 carries (40.5 RSH%), garnering 42 yards and two touchdowns of his own. 
  • CeeDee Lamb’s services were not needed on Pollard’s big day. Lamb played 65.0% of the offensive snaps (47), earning five targets (16.7%). Lamb caught all five passes for 45 yards.
  • Brett Maher hit four field goals and four extra points including a 60-yarder to end the first half.

Denver Broncos

  • Russell Wilson has now lost four of his last five starts, dropping another crucial divisional game in overtime to the Raiders in Week 11. Wilson was unable to find the endzone, completing 24/31 pass attempts for 247 yards.
  • Latavius Murray earned a sizable workload, taking 17 carries (63.0%) and four targets (12.9%) for 72 scrimmage yards (49 RSH YDS/23 REC YDS) and one touchdown.
  • Melvin Gordon was released from the organization following the Broncos’ overtime loss.
  • Courtland Sutton maintained a similar role despite Jerry Jeudy being sidelined. Sutton saw 92.0% of the offensive snaps (59), catching five of seven targets (22.6%) for 80 yards.
  • Rookie tight end Greg Dulcich played 83.0% of the offensive snaps, earning five targets (16.1%). He continues to be a focal point of the Broncos’ passing attack.

Detroit Lions

  • The Lions are protecting D’Andre Swift with bubble wrap, slowly nursing him back to health with limited exposure to danger. Swift played a mere 21 snaps (31.0%), earning five carries (16.1 RSH%) and three targets (11.5%).
  • Jamaal Williams and Justin Jackson shouldered the early-down workload. Williams played 48.0% of the offensive snaps (32) with a 54.8% rushing share (17 RSH). 
  • Jackson recorded 25 snaps (29.0%) with nine rushing attempts (15.4 RSH%) and one target (3.8%).
  • Williams now leads all non-quarterbacks in the NFL with 12 touchdowns after scoring three against the Giants.

Green Bay Packers

  • Christian Watson caught two touchdown passes, lifting his total to five in the last two games. Watson played 80.0% of the offensive snaps, catching four passes on six targets (15.4%) for 48 yards and two scores.
  • Allen Lazard led the receivers with 11 targets (28.2%), playing 92.0% of the offensive snaps (56). Lazard tallied five receptions for 57 yards.
  • Randall Cobb surprisingly led the team in receiving yards (73) and receptions (6). Cobb matched Watson with six targets (15.4%) while playing just 56.0% of the team’s snaps (34).
  • Aaron Jones earned a 66.% snap share (40), 66.7% rushing share (12 RSH), and 17.9% target share (7 TGT).
  • A.J. Dillon played just 29 snaps (48.0%) with six carries (33.3 RSH%) and one target (2.6%).

Houston Texans

  • Dameon Pierce continues to be the focal point of the Texans’ offense, recording a 100.0% backfield rushing share (10 RSH) with three targets (9.1%) on 77.0% of the offensive snaps (43).
  • Brandin Cooks has seemingly lost his leading role to Nico Collins. Cooks tallied below 20.0% of the team’s targets for the second consecutive contest while Collins topped that threshold in both games.
  • Collins earned a team-high 21.2% target share (7 TGT) on 48 snaps (86.0%).
  • Davis Mills will reportedly be benched for Kyle Allen in Week 12 as the Texans quarterback has failed to progress at an acceptable rate in his second season.

Indianapolis Colts

  • Jeff Saturday was one point away from his second victory as the Colts’ head coach, losing a close 17-16 matchup to the Eagles.
  • Matt Ryan remained under center as the starting quarterback, completing 23/32 pass attempts for 213 yards.
  • Jonathan Taylor found the endzone for the second straight game, handling 22 rush attempts (88.0 RSH%) for 84 yards and a touchdown. Taylor added four targets (12.5%), catching three for 10 yards.
  • Michael Pittman led the Colts in receptions (6) and receiving yards (75) in Week 11. Pittman played 98.0% of the offensive snaps but saw one fewer target than rookie wideout Alec Pierce
  • Pierce played 71.0% of the offensive snaps (46) but managed a 25.0% target share (8 TGT).
  • Parris Campbell continues to string together positive performances, proving the only thing holding him back from dominating opposing defenders was his ability to stay healthy.

Jacksonville Jaguars (BYE WEEK)

Kansas City Chiefs

  • The Chiefs’ wide receiver room was hit with a myriad of losses this past week. JuJu Smith-Schuster was held out of the contest with a concussion. 
  • Mecole Hardman was placed on injured reserve before the Week 11 matchup.
  • Lastly, Kadarius Toney was expected to take on an increased role but suffered a hamstring injury in the early moments of Week 11.
  • Travis Kelce shouldered the majority of passing production, catching six of ten targets (29.4%) for 115 yards and three touchdowns.
  • Isaih Pacheco broke out in a big way, taking 15 carries (65.2 RSH%) for 107 yards.
  • Pacheco still played fewer snaps than Jerrick McKinnon who recorded a 52.0% snap share (34).

Las Vegas Raiders 

  • Josh Jacobs recorded 100.0% of the Raiders’ running back rush attempts (24), earning a 10.8% target share (4 TGT) as well. Jacobs tallied 160 scrimmage yards (109 RSH YDS/51 REC YDS).
  • Davante Adams saw a team-high 13 targets (35.1%), catching seven passes for 141 yards and two touchdowns.
  • Mack Hollins participated in 100.0% of the Raiders’ offensive plays (66), earning nine targets (24.3%). Hollins registered six receptions for 52 yards.
  • Foster Moreau also recorded a 100.0% snap share (66), catching one of three targets (8.1%) for 33 yards.

Los Angeles Chargers

  • Justin Herbert enjoyed the return of his top two wideouts but was unable to celebrate a victory. Herbert completed 23/30 pass attempts for 280 yards with two touchdowns and one interception in the Chargers’ Week 11 loss to the Chiefs.
  • Austin Ekeler had become Herbert’s favorite target with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams sidelined. With both wideouts back in the lineup, albeit in a limited fashion, Ekeler saw just two targets (6.7%) but saw a season-high 19 carries (76.0 RSH%).
  • Josh Palmer is acting as the Chargers’ defacto WR1 due to the previously mentioned injuries. Palmer earned ten targets (33.3%) on a team-high snap count (92.0%). Palmer caught eight passes for 106 yards and two touchdowns.
  • Mike Williams played only six snaps before re-injuring his ankle on his first target.
  • Keenan Allen was on a pitch count the entire contest playing 44 snaps (68.0%). Allen still managed to earn an impressive 26.7% target share (8 TGT) despite limited playing time.

Los Angeles Rams

  • Matthew Stafford returned from a one-week absence due to a concussion only to re-enter concussion protocols in Week 11.
  • Bryce Perkins took over as the Rams quarterback, completing 5/10 pass attempts for 64 yards. Perkins is expected to start in Week 12 for the Rams as both Stafford and regular backup John Wolford are on the injured list.
  • The Rams’ offense looks wildly different without the all-pro talents of Cooper Kupp.
  • Formerly disgruntled Cam Akers led the team with 14 rush attempts (60.9 RSH%) but played fewer snaps than rookie Kyren Williams.
  • Williams played 55.0% of the offensive snaps (35), recording seven carries (30.4 RSH%) and two targets (7.1%).
  • Ben Skowronek (54 Snaps/4 TGT), Allen Robinson (53 Snaps/5 TGT), and Van Jefferson (47 Snaps, 5 TGT) all saw equal work from the wide receiver position but none could manage meaningful production.
  • Managers can expect more of the same as the Rams appear to have given up on their 2022 season, evident by their release of starting running back Darrell Henderson.

Miami Dolphins (BYE WEEK)

Minnesota Vikings

  • The Vikings had their metaphorical doors blown off the hinges by the Cowboys in Week 11, dropping to 8-2 after a resounding 40-3 loss.
  • Kirk Cousins fell apart at the seams, completing 12/23 pass attempts for 105 yards with zero touchdowns and zero interceptions while absorbing seven sacks.
  • The usage stats of the entire Vikings offense are skewed due to the nature of this one-sided beatdown.
  • The most interesting issuance of allocated opportunities comes from T.J. Hockenson who led the team with nine targets (30.0%). Hockenson now has nine or more targets in three consecutive contests and has finished as a TE1 in every week since joining the Vikings.

New England Patriots (BYE WEEK)

New Orleans Saints

  • Andy Dalton received his eighth start as a member of the Saints, throwing for 260 yards on 21/25 passing attempts with three touchdowns and no interceptions. 
  • Dalton will reportedly continue his reign as the starting quarterback despite his inconsistencies and fellow quarterback Jameis Winston clearing the injury report.
  • Taysom Hill saw snaps under center, at running back, slot receiver, out wide, tight end, and on special teams against the Steelers. Hill attempted three passes, completing one for 14 yards. He rushed three nine times, leading the team with 52 rushing yards, and received one target, hauling it in for eight yards.
  • Alvin Kamara played 70.0% of the offensive snaps (40), earning five targets (17.9%). Kamara rushed 12 times (92.3 RSH%) for 42 yards, adding 47 yards on four receptions.
  • Chris Olave earned a team-high six targets (21.4%) despite playing just 49.0% of the offensive snaps (28).0% snap share (36). The Saints’ rookie recorded five receptions for 102 yards and one touchdown.
  • Juwan Johnson found the endzone for the third week in a row. Johnson played 63.0% of the offensive snaps (40), earning four targets (14.3%).

New York Giants

  • Rookie Wide Receiver Wan’Dale Robinson was putting together an incredible performance in Week 11, catching nine of 13 targets (29.5%) for 100 yards before exiting with a knee injury. The worst-case scenario has been revealed as Robinson will now need reparative surgery, costing him the rest of his rookie campaign.
  • Darius Slayton led the Giants with an 87.0% snap share (66), earning 10 targets (22.7%). Slayton hauled in five receptions for 86 yards
  • Saquon Barkley may be the only asset you can trust on this offense moving forward. Barkley maintained an elite opportunity share in Week 11, garnering 83.3% of the team’s rushing work with an added 11.4% target share.

New York Jets

  • Zach Wilson lost his second game of the season and his starting job in the process. Wilson completed 9/22 pass attempts for 77 yards with no touchdowns. Wilson led the team in rushing with just 26 yards.
  • No member of the Jets offense has a bright outlook for the future although Mike White is expected to start in Week 12, giving Garett Wilson and Elijah Moore a potential boost in production.
  • Denzil Mims, Elijah Moore, Garrett Wilson, and Ty Conklin all recorded two receptions.
  • Mims led the team with six targets (27.3%).

Philadelphia Eagles

  • Jalen Hurts completed 18/25 pass attempts for 190 yards and one touchdown, leading the team with 16 rush attempts for 86 yards and another touchdown.
  • Miles Sanders tallied 47 rushing yards on 13 attempts (76.5 RSH%) while playing 44 offensive snaps (65.0%). Sanders saw just one target.
  • DeVonta Smith led the Eagles with 94.0% of the offensive snaps and a team-high nine targets (36.0%).
  • A.J. Brown was close behind with 88.0% of the team’s snaps and seven targets (28.0%).

Pittsburgh Steelers

  • Rookie quarterback Kenny Pickett completed 25/42 pass attempts for 265 yards and one touchdown, adding 14 yards on two rush attempts. 
  • Najee Harris garnered 90 rushing yards on 20 carries (100.0 RSH%) with two touchdowns. Harris also received six targets (14.3%), catching four for 26 yards.
  • Diontae Johnson continues to disappoint amidst a downward spiral of empty stats. Johnson caught four of five targets (11.9%) for 21 yards.
  • George Pickens played fewer snaps than his veteran counterpart but has far surpassed Johnson as the more effective wideout. Pickens caught four of six targets (14.3%) for 83 yards and one touchdown.
  • Pat Freiermuth is the Steelers’ top receiver despite lining up in the tight end position. Freiermuth consistently leads the Steelers in targets, this time out recording 12 targets (28.6%) on 71.0% of the offensive snaps (52).

San Francisco 49ers

  • Jimmy Garoppolo completed 20 passes to just four different receivers, tossing for 228 yards and four touchdowns.
  • George Kittle (4 REC/84 YDS/2 TD), Christian McCaffrey (7 REC/67 YDS), Deebo Samuel (7 REC/57 YDS), and Brandon Aiyuk (2 REC/20 YDS/2 TD) were the only members of the 49ers offense to record receiving stats.
  • Elijah Mitchell surprisingly handled more carries than Christian McCaffrey for the second week in a row. Mitchell took nine carries (45.0 RSH%) for 59 yards compared to McCaffrey who saw 7 carries (35.8%) for 39 yards. 
  • McCaffrey did, however, earn a 24.1% target share (7 TGT), leading the 49ers with seven receptions.
  • Deebo Samuel handled an additional three carries for 37 yards and one touchdown to go with his respectable receiving slash.
  • George Kittle played 74.0% of the offensive snaps (43), recording six targets (20.7%) as the team’s top receiver alongside McCaffrey.
  • Where there is a will, there is a way. Brandon Aiyuk recorded the lowest total of targets compared to the above options but managed to translate both of his receptions into touchdowns.

Seattle Seahawks (BYE WEEK)

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (BYE WEEK)

Tennessee Titans

  • Long live the King. Derrick Henry rushed 28 times (96.6%) for 87 yards and one touchdown while throwing for one touchdown and completing two passes for four yards.
  • Rookie first-round wide receiver Treylon Burks put on a show against a formidable Packers defense in Week 12. Burks smashed his way to 111 yards on seven receptions (8 TGT) while playing just 50.0% of the offensive snaps. Burks has the potential to blossom into a true league-winning asset if his playing time increases.
  • Robert Woods saw seven targets (24.1%), catching six passes for a nice 69 yards.

Washington Commanders

  • Taylor Heinicke made his fifth start of the 2022 season, completing 15/27 pass attempts for 191 yards, zero touchdowns, and no interceptions.
  • Terry McLaurin recorded his best game of the 2022 season in Week 10, catching eight of 11 targets (37.9%) for 128 yards. Week 11 was not so kind as McLaurin managed just 55 yards on four catches (7 TGT).
  • Curtis Samuel caught one of his two targets (7.4%) for 10 yards.
  • Rookie wideout Jahan Dotson returned from injured reserve in Week 10 but played just 41.0% of the offensive snaps (34) and saw only one target (3.4%). His playing time increased in Week 11, playing 66.0% of the offensive snaps (45) but his usage remains menial with just two targets (7.4%).
  • Brian Robinson (23 Snaps/15 RSH/0 TGT) and Antonio Gibson (46 Snaps/18 RSH/3 TGT) are stuck in a two-way committee with each player vulturing one another’s value.

SIGNOFF

If you are looking to follow along throughout the weeks, check out the previous articles in this series here:

Much respect; thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

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