dynasty

Raheem Mostert: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Raheem Mostert should be atop all of the “sell high” lists across the industry. His current ADP alone is a sign to test the market. Reports indicate Jerick McKinnon is healthy and back in the fold while Tevin Coleman still looms in the shadows. I personally want no part of this backfield. A 49er’s running back played more than 70% of the offensive snaps just once last year. Let’s not forget who Kyle Shanahan is and how he utilizes running backs. Remember Jeff Wilson scored two touchdowns in Week 1 and was “the guy”. Mostert had just a 32.2% opportunity share (total team running back carries plus targets) in 2019. Shanahan runs a running back by committee offense and that isn’t about to change for the Journeyman Raheem Mostert in 2020.

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#TomBomb: Indianapolis Colts

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One of the best moves any dynasty GM can make is to capitalize on rough rookie campaigns. This belief is heightened when said campaigns are derailed by injury, as opposed to simply production. Enter one Parris Campbell. With a 97th-percentile Speed and Burst Score coupled with a 100th-percentile 40-yard-dash time, Mr. Campbell is simply a really fast young man. When the Indianapolis Colts drafted this Ohio State burner with the 59th overall selection, in the 2019 NFL draft, they did so with the intention that he would soon replace TY Hilton as the team’s WR1. In my mind, I’m not sure anything has changed on that front.

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Ryan Tannehill: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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The Dolphins drafted Ryan Tannehill out of Texas A&M with the eighth overall pick in the 2012 NFL Draft to be their new long-term starting quarterback. While Tannehill decently filled that role from 2012-2016, he didn’t make much of an impact for fantasy owners. He ultimately failed to flash the upside he showed in college. Outside of 2014, Tannehill was nothing more than a back-end QB2, and he was a dynasty afterthought outside of superflex leagues.

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Jack Doyle: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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After an injury-plagued 2018, fantasy owners were anticipating a huge bounce-back year from Jack Doyle in 2019. This did not come to fruition though, as Andrew Luck decided to retire a few weeks before the regular season. After some short-lived early season success, the Colts’ passing attack succumbed to injuries and Jacoby Brissett’s limitations as a passer. Doyle was included in these struggles, as he posted a career-low 59.7 percent catch rate.

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Kareem Hunt: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Kareem Hunt was drafted by the Kansas City Chiefs in the third round out of the University of Toledo where he put up some significant numbers. Hunt broke out in his freshman year and finished his college career with three straight seasons of 10+ touchdowns. Hunt went into the season as their number two running back but that changed after their starting running back Spencer Ware went down in the pre-season. Hunt was named the starter and never really looked back. Playing in all 16 games, Hunt had 272 rushes for 1,327 yards and 8 rushing touchdowns. Hunt added 53 receptions, 455 yards, and three receiving touchdowns.

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2nd Year Breakout Wide Receivers: Part 3

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The consensus used to be that it took wide receivers three years to breakout into fantasy relevance. But, the NFL is turning more pass-happy and players are being utilized in various ways. So, it isn’t out of the question that there are a few second-year breakouts that can boost production for your dynasty team. Similar to last year, if your teams had Courtland Sutton, DJ Chark, or D.J. Moore on your roster before the start of the season, you more than likely felt comfortable with your team’s outlook. In this 3-part series of articles, I’ll look at six wide receivers that need to be considered.  If you didn’t draft some of these second-year wideouts, it’ll be almost impossible for you to acquire them going forward. But, if you’re given the chance, don’t be afraid to overpay.

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Holding Pattern: Guys I’m Hanging Onto… For Now

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Devin Singletary had some impressive moments in his 2019 rookie campaign. He also spent some time on the bench with a lingering hamstring injury. After starting his season with limited opportunities, Singletary was trusted with 20 carries in week nine. He made the most of that opportunity, finishing as the sixth-best running back that week with 140 rushing yards and 38 yards receiving and added a touchdown. From weeks 11-16, Singletary averaged 17.16 rushes per game and 77.66 rushing yards per game, averaging 4.52 yards per attempt. Not too shabby. 

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The 1QB Dynasty Startup Strategy Guide

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Back in 2019, the then-DFF team wrote a dynasty startup strategy guide. That guide holds up well even now, and I would highly recommend going back and reading it. However, I feel like the guide needs a 2020 update. So much has changed in the dynasty universe since March 2019, and I want to address that before the 2020 season. Now that the 2020 season looks like a lock to happen, many of you readers might participate in dynasty startups before the season begins. Therefore, I want to give you my version of this guide. I’m going to split it up into two parts, one for regular 1QB leagues and one for superflex leagues. At this point, superflex formats are so popular within the dynasty community that they certainly deserve their own guide. With all that said, let’s get into the 1QB guide.

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Diontae Johnson: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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At Johnson’s current value, he likely represents a dynasty sell. I’m a firm believer in a bounce-back season for Smith-Schuster, and I expect the Steelers to reach a long-term agreement with him. I don’t see Johnson as having the same ceiling as some other players in his value range, such as Christian Kirk, Mecole Hardman, N’Keal Harry, or Tee Higgins. For those reasons, I’d float Johnson in trade talks if I had him on one of my dynasty teams.

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Redraft Best Ball Primer

#TomBomb: Houston Texans

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Any individual who is only able to participate in 66% of their team’s contests, across a four-year-span, is normally one I believe I’d try to steer clear of when assembling my roster. However, with the departure of DeAndre Hopkins and his 150 targets, Old Tom is fully on board with any and all Will Fuller hype. For clarification, I’m not about to wager the farm for this stance but I’d contemplate the chicken coop. The positive here, though, is that I’d venture to say most Fuller-owners don’t feel as strongly about #15 as Old Tom. Can you say discount? If the reports out of the Texans’ camp are true, and Fuller has added both muscle and speed, I’m just not sure I can start to fathom what his upside becomes in 2020 and beyond. 

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Leonard Fournette: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Now is the time to run away from Fournette. The Jaguars tried to trade him multiple times during the 2020 NFL Draft, and they declined the fifth-year option on his contract. Therefore, Fournette will be an unrestricted free agent after the 2020 season, and he will play for a different team in 2021. The 2021 free agent running back class is a stacked group, with multiple superior options to Fournette that potentially include Cook, Mixon, Kamara, Aaron Jones, Kareem Hunt, and others.  I wouldn’t wait until the season begins because Fournette will lose value if he isn’t the same workhorse as before. Trust me and get out now while you still can. If you can get any 2021 first-round pick for Fournette, I would make that trade in a heartbeat.

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2nd Year Breakout Wide Receivers: Part 2

Dynasty / By /

The consensus used to be that it took wide receivers three years to breakout into fantasy relevance. But, the NFL is turning more pass-happy and players are being utilized in various ways. So, it isn’t out of the question that there are a few second-year breakouts that can boost production for your dynasty team. Similar to last year, if your teams had Courtland Sutton, DJ Chark, or D.J. Moore on your roster before the start of the season, you more than likely felt comfortable with your team’s outlook. In this 3-part series of articles, I’ll look at six wide receivers that need to be considered.  If you didn’t draft some of these second-year wideouts, it’ll be almost impossible for you to acquire them going forward. But, if you’re given the chance, don’t be afraid to overpay.

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2nd Year Breakout Wide Receivers: Part 1

Dynasty / By /

The consensus used to be that it took wide receivers three years to breakout into fantasy relevance. But, the NFL is turning more pass-happy and players are being utilized in various ways. So, it isn’t out of the question that there are a few second-year breakouts that can boost production for your dynasty team. Similar to last year, if your teams had Courtland Sutton, D.J. Chark, or D.J. Moore on your roster before the start of the season, you more than likely felt comfortable with your team’s outlook. In this 3-part series of articles, I’ll look at six wide receivers that need to be considered.  If you didn’t draft some of these second-year wideouts, it’ll be almost impossible for you to acquire them going forward. But, if you’re given the chance, don’t be afraid to overpay.

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Jarvis Landry: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Jarvis Landry was the WR21 in fantasy points per game in a season where Baker Mayfield experienced a decreased yards-per-attempt, completion rate, and touchdown rate. All signs point toward Mayfield taking a step forward this season and the Browns being a much more efficient offense in general. Expect the offense to still run through Landry and the run game, with Odell Beckham providing the electric plays. All contending fantasy teams should be trading for Landry with a WR2 floor and low WR1 upside.

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matt ryan

Matt Ryan: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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As a dynasty asset, I believe Matt Ryan is fairly valued at QB10 by MFL ADP. Because he is 35, his value is sinking, with him being passed up by the younger QB with more perceived upside. However, if you are contending, Matt Ryan is a great option for your team. I believe you can lock Matt Ryan into a top 12 finish in 2020, making him a fantastic QB2 on a SuperFlex team or a very solid QB1 in a standard league. At 35 years old, Ryan still appears to have plenty in the tank. It is safe to bet on Ryan playing for another 3-4 years, but it would also not surprise me if Ryan plays into his 40s like Brady and Brees.

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#TomBomb: Pittsburgh Steelers

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Now, if you’re not careful you may subconsciously find yourself thinking Ebron’s name has been a topic of conversation for quite a while now. Which, consequently, must mean he’s… you know… old. Well, at just 27 years of age, he’s not placeable in that category quite yet. One thing I don’t want to do is discount Vance McDonald and his ability to contribute, in a real-football-sense, to this ball club. He’s a terrific player in his own right and I genuinely think he’s a quality asset to any organization. Nonetheless, Eric Ebron walks into that locker room as the unquestioned TE1 with some pretty monster upside, especially in the touchdown department.

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#TomBomb: Cleveland Browns

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Potentially more than ever, Jarvis Landry finds his way into any and every conversation revolving around the notion of buying low in a dynasty setting. Just days after the Browns placed the WR on the active/PUP list, Old Tom has a feeling you’re going to find a few owners a little concerned. The good news, however, is that this was always part of the plan. As reported, the team has indicated there have been no setbacks and Jarvis should be ready in time for that week 1 showdown with the high-flying Ravens. With that cleared up, Old Tom has always had a sweet spot for Mr. Landry.

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Lamar Jackson: 2020 Dynasty Profile

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Lamar Jackson was selected with the last pick in the first round of the 2018 NFL draft. He was drafted after Baker Mayfield, Sam Darnold, Josh Allen, and Josh Rosen at the quarterback position. Prior to being drafted in the first round, Lamar Jackson was a prolific quarterback for the Louisville Cardinals earning the Heisman Award in his true sophomore season. Jackson threw for over 9,000 yards to go with 69 TDs versus 27 interceptions. Jackson was truly electric rushing the ball, having two seasons with over 1,500 yards, finishing with over 4,000 yards and 50 TDs in his three collegiate seasons.

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