In this week’s episode of Always Be Scouting, @DffFrankPanthro and @John_mancuso5 compare the rookie […]
Always Be Scouting — Episode 9: “Cigars, Draft Classes, and Jackass” Read More »
We’re less than a month out from the NFL Draft, and by now you’ve probably gotten the full rundown on every rookie prospect worth knowing. But here’s the thing: winning rookie drafts isn’t about knowing who everyone else likes. It’s about finding the guys the dynasty community is sleeping on. And today, I’m confident I’ve found your Round 2 steal at wide receiver. That receiver is Antonio Williams out of Clemson. Right now, the dynasty community is treating him like a virtual zero. He’s the WR139 overall and the 31st overall Superflex rookie prospect on KeepTradeCut, a crowdsourced dynasty ranking site. My ranks? WR37 overall. 11th overall Superflex dynasty rookie asset. That’s a pretty absurd discrepancy. So let me explain exactly why I’m so high on Williams and why you should be too. High School Williams was a highly-touted prospect coming out of high school, ranked as a four-star recruit and the WR6 in his class on 247Sports. He finished his senior year at Dutch Fork with 80 receptions for 1,569 yards and 14 touchdowns. Williams was also a tremendous punt returner in high school, averaging 26.2 yards on 29 career returns. Dutch Fork was one of the strongest teams in South Carolina, winning three state championships during Williams’ time there. He was selected as an Under Armour All-American. Williams received offers from many top programs across the country, but elected to stay close to home and signed with Clemson, under HC Dabo Swinney. Clemson (2022-25) Williams was an immediate producer for Clemson, leading the team in receptions and yards
Meet Your Round 2 Rookie Draft Steal at WR Read More »
Can you smell that? Yep, it’s startup season. Most of the big names on the market have found new homes via free agency, so some player values have shifted since the end of the 2025 season. And they’ll shift again soon, with the NFL Draft less than a month away. After jumping into some 2026 startups recently, I wanted to share my thoughts on the quarterback and tight end markets. Here’s what I’m seeing at those two spots with some suggestions on how to attack them in drafts. Quarterbacks The number of quarterbacks being selected in round one of Superflex drafts is as low as I’ve seen in years. Gone are the days of six or seven signal-callers flying off the board early. Managers want the elite running backs and wide receivers at the top and are willing to bypass QBs to get them. Right now, it’s Josh Allen and Drake Maye as the only constants, and even those guys are slipping in some instances. I just got Allen at pick 1.04 in a startup, then followed it up with Lamar Jackson at 2.09! Imagine getting that duo just one or two years ago — you would’ve had to trade away most of your middle-round selections to make that happen. After Allen and Maye, you’ll usually see Jayden Daniels, Joe Burrow, or Caleb Williams go later in the round, but I’ve also seen them fall to the second. Hard to hate the value there. If you’ve ever wanted Patrick Mahomes, I’ve got good news for you: he’s never been cheaper.
The State of QBs & TEs in Early 2026 Startups Read More »
In this week’s episode of Always Be Scouting, @DffFrankPanthro and @John_mancuso5 cover a three-round
Always Be Scouting — Episode 8: “Bad to the Bone(d)” Read More »
There was an interesting question posed by a subscriber in our DFF Discord this past weekend, following this tweet being posted: Seeing the potential that the 2027 draft class has at the quarterback position, Josh asked this: It’s an excellent question, and one we need to be asking ourselves for dynasty purposes. Obviously, a good number of guys from McShay’s list above either won’t pan out as first-round talents or will elect to stay in college for the 2027 season if they have remaining eligibility. But there are additional guys not on this list who could end up being first-round selections. Josh Hoover. John Mateer. Maybe DJ Lagway finally has that breakout season everyone’s been waiting for. Maybe Drew Mestemaker’s G5 dominance carries over into the P4, and he emerges as a top pick. It’s hard to project any of this so far out, but for the sake of this exercise, let’s take McShay at his word and treat the 2027 QB class as the “historic” one he’s calling it. Who will these quarterbacks be taking over for? Let’s take a look at the guys whose jobs may not be as secure as we think. These names may be good sell candidates in dynasty for you, especially on a team that’s rebuilding or retooling. The Top “Cut” Candidates I’ll kick off my list by covering the quarterbacks I feel have the most to prove this coming season and will likely be out of a starting job by 2027 or sooner. Geno Smith (NYJ) – Geno is the most obvious quarterback
QBs on the Chopping Block: Planning for the 2027 Class Read More »
Welcome back for another edition of Hit Rate by Rounds. In today’s article, we’ll be focusing on the running back position. The goal of this article is to see whether draft capital has become a stronger predictor of fantasy production for running backs over the past 14 seasons. I split the data into the first seven years and the last seven years, but I did not include 2025 because RBs typically take a couple of years to produce. Adding rookies to the equation would skew the numbers too much in favor of the older group. The charts below show the hit rate for running backs drafted in each round (1–7), measuring what percentage went on to post at least one Top-12, Top-24, or Top-36 fantasy season. This gives us a sense of how likely a back is to deliver meaningful fantasy value based on draft capital. Looking at Round 1, the same number of running backs have been drafted in Round 1 in both groups, but the success rates have decreased. It has become harder to identify elite first-round running backs in recent years. Rd 1 RB Total Top 12 Top 24 Top 36 2011 – 2017 9 = 8/9 = 89% = 8/9 = 89% = 8/9 = 89% 2018 – 2024 9 = 6/9 = 67% = 7/9 = 78% = 8/9 = 89% 2011 – 2024 18 = 14/18 = 78% = 15/18 = 83% = 16/18 = 89% Looking at Round 2, fewer running backs have been drafted in Round 2 recently, and the hit rates
Running Back Fantasy Hit Rate By Rounds Read More »
The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today.
These WR1 model rankings are your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.
You can find the wide receivers ranked 15 to 11 in the WR1 model here.
You can find the running back RB1 model here.
For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges.
The WR1 model consistently outperforms NFL draft capital in predicting the future fantasy success of incoming prospects. For a full breakdown of the model’s past performance, click this link. You can also find the 2025 model here and the 2024 model here, where we were one of the very few publications to have Malik Nabers as the top wide receiver overall instead of Marvin Harrison Jr. Even the NFL had Harrison higher, as Nabers was drafted behind Harrison in the NFL Draft. Here is the WR1 model I published in 2023, featuring Jaxon Smith-Njigba as the WR1. The WR1 model is exceptional at identifying the true elite wide receivers. 17 of the 20 top-scoring prospects with at least three years in the NFL have had a top-24 PPR PPG NFL fantasy season.
Fourteen of the 20 have also had a top-12 PPR PPG NFL fantasy season. Nine have had multiple top 12 seasons, including perennial top-5 studs like Julio Jones, Calvin Johnson, Odell Beckham Jr., Ja’Marr Chase, and Justin Jefferson.
So let’s dive into the 2026 class overall WR1 Model Score.
10. Chris Bell, Louisville | WR1 Model Score: 24.0
Based on historical comps, Chris Bell’s WR1 Model score of 24.0 gives him an 35.8% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical Players With Similar WR1 Model Scores:
Adonai Mitchell
Malik Washington
Kyle Williams
The Good
Bell posted a very impressive weighted dominator (team share of receiving yards and touchdowns) of 38.2%. This ranked 3rd among wide receivers in this draft class. Louisville was not a prolific passing offense
2026 Rookie WR1 Analytical Model, Version 1.0: Rankings 10 to 6 Read More »
Missed Tackles Forced Per Attempt is one of the more predictive analytical statistics for running backs for future fantasy success. Over the past three years, the top 6 running backs with the highest college career missed tackles forced per attempt rate are: Bijan Robinson – 39.3% Trey Benson – 39.2% Tyrone Tracy – 38.5% Ashton Jeanty – 37.8% Bucky Irving – 36.2% For a singular metric, that is a nice hit rate. Then how is it, in an absolutely horrible running back class overall, there is a prospect with an otherworldly 46.9% missed tackles forced per attempt career rate that no one is talking about? Fam, meet Terion Stewart. So why haven’t you heard of Stewart? Well, for one, he was used sparingly at Virginia Tech this past season. Before that, he played four years for Bowling Green. Before you say, “Ahhh, Bowling Green,” well, remember this is the same college that just produced Harold Fannin Jr. The MAC is definitely not the SEC, but it is a competitive conference. While at Bowling Green, Stewart never eclipsed 1,000 yards rushing, staying under the radar of the best teams. He did rush for 917 and 753 his last two years there, however. The Hokies brought Stewart over for his final college season. Stewart suffered a series of injuries that forced him into a walking boot in August, which was then followed by a shoulder injury in October. He finished the year with a mediocre 82 attempts for 469 yards. Oh, and remember how you were concerned about Stewart compiling those stats
Meet the 2026 Rookie RB With Elite Contact Balance Read More »
From the University of Arkansas, Mike Washington Jr. has the potential to be one of the second-round steals in 2026 Dynasty Rookie Drafts. The 22-year-old put up some impressive numbers during his final collegiate season. At 6’1” and 223 pounds, his power and speed combination is built to handle a heavy workload. Washington Jr. can run through and past defenders in a hurry, and he’s someone who could very well outperform where he’ll get drafted. To put things simply, he’s someone who will be a problem in the NFL. Washington Jr. is a player who, depending on where he ends up, could quickly become an NFL starter immediately or at some point during the season and become a very valuable Dynasty running back. Let’s take a closer look at him. * Within this article, the statistics were pulled from Sports Reference, KeepTradeCut (KTC), and Sleeper. College Production (2021 – 2025) Washington Jr., a two-star recruit, committed to his first three collegiate seasons at Buffalo, transferred to New Mexico State before entering the transfer portal one more time for his final year of eligibility, where he ended his collegiate time at Arkansas and saw career highs in all statistical categories. This past season, Washington Jr. earned second-team All-SEC, where he rushed for 1,070 yards with eight rushing touchdowns. Additionally, he’s shown he can also be a dual-threat, adding 28 receptions on 226 receiving yards and one receiving touchdown. In 2025, he became the 16th player in Arkansas history to eclipse 1,000 rushing yards, and he was named second-team All-SEC. The highlight
Second Round Dynasty Sleeper: Mike Washington Jr. Read More »
Seth McGowan’s path to the 2026 NFL Draft is one of the more unusual stories in this class. Early in his career at Oklahoma, he looked like the next talented running back to come through that program. Instead, a legal incident nearly ended his career before it really started. What followed was a long road back through smaller programs and multiple stops before he finally returned to the SEC and put himself back on the NFL radar. A Promising Start That Fell Apart In 2020, McGowan showed real promise at Oklahoma. The former four-star recruit played in eight games as a freshman, rushing for 370 yards and catching 13 passes for 201 yards. His 143 total yards in the Cotton Bowl showed the kind of playmaking ability that had people believing he could become the next productive Oklahoma running back. That momentum ended in April of 2021. McGowan was arrested following an armed robbery investigation and was dismissed from the Oklahoma program. He later pleaded guilty to felony larceny, served three months in jail, and received a year of probation. Just like that, his football future was suddenly in doubt. The Long Road Back McGowan did not play football for two seasons while rebuilding his life and career. His first stop was Texas College, an NAIA program where he never appeared in a game. From there, he transferred to Butler Community College in 2023, where he played 6 games and began rebuilding his football reputation. In 2024, McGowan returned to the FBS level at New Mexico State. The talent was
Seth McGowan: The Long Road Back Read More »
@jim_DFF reveals his two-round dynasty rookie draft selections based on a recent NFL mock draft from A to Z Sports.
Two-Round Dynasty Rookie Mock Draft (With Landing Spots) Read More »
Modern tight ends have one job above everything else: catch the football. Blocking matters. Athleticism matters. But if you can’t be trusted in traffic, none of it plays. Eli Stowers gets that. And it’s why his transition from quarterback to tight end has turned into one of the most impressive developments in college football. Stowers didn’t just convert positions. He became the focal point of Vanderbilt’s offense. In 2025, he led all FBS tight ends in receiving yards, and he did it by winning the same way every NFL tight end has to win: hands, feel, toughness, and consistency. At 6’4” and around 235-239 pounds, Stowers isn’t built like an old-school in-line blocker. He’s built like a modern weapon. And he plays like one. Production That Matters The breakout didn’t come out of nowhere. It was built year by year. In 2025, Stowers caught 62 passes for 769 yards, the most receiving yards by any tight end in the country. He averaged 12.4 yards per catch and played all 12 games as a centerpiece of the offense. The year before, he put up 49 catches for 638 yards and 5 touchdowns, earning First Team All-SEC honors and Mackey Award semifinalist recognition. Across three seasons at Vanderbilt and New Mexico State, he finished with 146 catches, 1,773 yards, and 11 touchdowns. That’s not gadget production. That’s real usage. How Stowers Wins Stowers catches the football first. That’s the foundation. He has strong, reliable hands and shows comfort working through traffic. He doesn’t panic when bodies are around him. He secures the
Eli Stowers: The Tight End Built for the Modern Game Read More »
Published January 2026 Welcome to players 11 to 20 in my Dynasty rankings series. Players 10 to 1 can be found here. Players 21 to 30 can be found here. Those who follow my work know I approach all of my rankings from an analytical foundation and then layer in additional context on top of that. This series is no different. The foundation of my Dynasty rankings is a proprietary model that utilizes a combination of predictive metrics with an emphasis on prior season fantasy points per game and then combines that with a position-specific age multiplier, flattening of TD luck, and position adjustment. This is the Dynasty 1 Score. From there, I layer on situational adjustments that pure statistics can not identify. I also prioritize consistency in my rankings. How likely are the players to be able to repeat their prior season performances based on their archetype? With that introduction, let me introduce you to my Dynasty rankings series. Note these are a snapshot in time vs. the always-evolving rankings you can find on our rankings site. But in this article series, you get the context and thinking behind the ranking that is not supplied by the pure ranking. Rankings are always fluid, and at DFF, we update them continuously here. These are a snapshot with the thought process behind each that you don’t see in simple rankings. These ranks are a snapshot as of January 2026. Superflex, Full PPR, TE Premium *Data sources: PFF, Pro Football Reference, Player Profiler, NFL+ Premium The rest of this rankings article series
The Definitive Dynasty Rankings Guide: 11 to 20 Read More »
@joshreedy5 dives into some historical dynasty rookie ADP to determine which fantasy positions have the highest hit rate year over year.
By the Numbers: Historical Rookie Hit Rates Read More »
@jim_DFF wraps up his mock draft series by covering his selections from Rounds 9-15, discussing dynasty outlook and startup strategy.
Landing the Plane: Jim’s Middle Round Dynasty Startup Strategy Read More »
@DffFrankPanthro covers his picks from Rounds 8-15 in our recent dynasty startup mock draft, talking draft strategy from 12 slot.
DFF Dynasty Mock Draft: Dominating the Turn at 1.12 (Part 2) Read More »
In this DFF exclusive article @joshreedy5 discusses his dynasty startup strategy and picks, drafting from the 1.04 spot.
2026 DFF Dynasty Startup Strategy: Drafting from the 1.04 Spot Read More »
Find out who DFF analyst @DynastyFFWolf selected with his first 15 picks in this Dynasty Superflex TEP startup draft.
Dynasty Startup Strategy: Building a Contender from the 10th Spot Read More »
@jim_DFF breaks down his draft selections in this expert dynasty startup draft. See how the dynasty landscape as shifted as we head into 2026.
Building a Powerhouse: Jim’s Dynasty Draft Strategy & Picks Read More »
Cole Payton is one of those names that sneaks up on you if you’re not paying attention. Small school. Limited starts. Left-handed quarterback. Easy to overlook if you’re skimming box scores. But once you actually watch him and dig into the season he just put together, it’s hard not to come away impressed. Payton just finished a record-setting year at North Dakota State and put himself firmly on the NFL radar for the 2026 Draft. He’s not a finished product, but the upside is very real, especially in a quarterback class that doesn’t have many players separating themselves. A Late Bloomer Who Made It Count This past season was Payton’s first full year as the starter, and he made the most of it. He led North Dakota State to a 12–1 record and played with a level of efficiency you don’t usually see, regardless of level. He completed nearly 72% of his passes, threw for 2,719 yards with 16 touchdowns and only 4 interceptions, and consistently took care of the football. What really jumps out is how clean the overall production looks when you factor in what he did with his legs. Payton rushed for 777 yards and 13 touchdowns, averaging 5.7 yards per carry. He wasn’t scrambling just to survive. Designed runs, short-yardage toughness, red-zone scores. He became a legitimate problem for defenses once plays broke down. By the end of the year, he finished as the highest-graded quarterback in the FCS and set school records for efficiency and total offense per play. That doesn’t happen by accident. How
Cole Payton: The Small-School Quarterback You Need to Know Read More »
