Shoot for the Moon: 2020 Linebacker Ranks

Seasonal (redraft) ranks will appear in article form this year at Dynasty Football Factory. The IDP ranks in spreadsheet form are and will remain for a dynasty format. I’ll update these dynasty ranks year-round, thus making available a rare resource for IDP gamers. I, myself, was always on the hunt for current dynasty ranks for start-up and dispersal drafts for IDP leagues before I started writing.

Context for These Ranks

Linebacker remains a deep position for IDP fantasy gamers for yet another year in 2020. Sixty-six linebackers are well-positioned to earn full-time or near full-time roles. Thirty-six of these players appear nearly certain to play full-time in 2020, health permitting. 

I calibrated my ranks for 2020 seasonal leagues for 14-team, true-position full-IDP leagues with the scoring settings of FantasyPros.com and 55 roster spots. To that end, I list here 70 linebackers in the order of value they offer teams starting 11 IDPs including three to four LBs.

This list will also work reasonably well for a conventional position full-IDP league with tackle-heavy scoring. Fewer than ten players would slide down these ranks due to their big-play dependency. Only Jamie Collins and Kyle Van Noy, who I expect will play roughly half their snaps on the edge in 2020, would be dramatically affected.

My advice to those drafting linebackers in “balanced-scoring” conventional-position leagues (those in which sacks are worth 3x to 4x that of a solo tackle) is to wait and wait some more to fill rosters with LBs unless startlingly good value appears. All but the very best pass-rushing outside linebackers will be abundant. The lack of scarcity at the position devalues it for fantasy football

Elite LB1s

If you draft linebackers early, draft for ceiling. With 36 relatively certain full-time players, floor will be available throughout much of your draft. My top seven linebackers I believe are good bets for 140 combined tackles. 

My hottest take in this bunch is Christian Kirksey at number five. If the Packers’ defensive coordinator Mike Pettine thinks Kirksey can replace Blake Martinez, then so should we. Kirksey’s output in 2017 as a Brown matches Martinez’s per-game average from 2017 to 2019: 14.7 fantasy points per game.

Solid LB1s

Players ranked between eight and 14 all appear capable of LB1 seasons. Lavonte David and Demario Davis are fantastic linebackers, but the defensive schemes in which they operate limit their tackle ceilings. They earn their keep with big plays. Any of the other five could earn a place among the elite with a break-out play-making season.

Strong LB2s

The 15th through 20th linebackers operate in defensive schemes that don’t (or that I expect won’t) maximize upside through tackle compilation. Fantasy gamers aren’t typically in tune with defensive schemes’ influences on tackles per snap played. Most gamers will therefore aggressively draft these six players anticipating growth in tackle numbers that just isn’t very likely.

Set-It-and-Forget-It LB2s

Several linebackers that fantasy gamers have seemingly grown bored with occupy Slots 21 through 31. Avery Williamson is the most interesting here in that he could be cut like Guard Brian Winters, saving the Jets $6.5 million. If he makes the team, which seems more likely now that CJ Mosley opted out from the season to avoid the coronavirus, he should lead the Jets in tackles. In fact, I’d bump him up to #16 once his roster spot is secure.

New Detroit Lion Jamie Collins might look like an odd fit in this group, but he’s averaged twelve-and-a-half fantasy points per game in each of the past three seasons between Cleveland and New England. His rank bakes in the downside of an expectedly weak Lions defense. Those in tackle-heavy formats should push Collins down a dozen slots.

Two more players in this group will operate a bit like Jamie Collins in 2020. Rashaan Evans and Jaylon Smith expect opportunities to rush the passer. They could play along the line of scrimmage up to 25% of the time. (I wrote about both players’ deployment in their respective defenses this off-season: Evans and Smith.) The loss of coverage snaps lowers their tackle opportunities but increases their chances for sacks and tackles for loss. Gamers might need to adjust each player up to three slots either way based on their scoring settings.

Pick-Your-Poison LB3s

Players appearing between 32 and 41 are mostly rookies. They offer upside, but uncertainty in playing time and adjustment to the NFL without preseason makes them risk/reward selections. Sprinkled among them are boring veterans who should play full time and provide safe floors.

OK, so “should play full time” is a strong statement for the Rams’ Micah Kiser. I like his fit in the defense I expect to see in LA and would move him up ten spots if I were certain of his role.

LB Depth

Players ranked 42nd to 62nd all carry question marks about playing time. When their running mates are fully healthy – a cavernous caveat in 2020, all these players present the risk of painfully low outputs. The two exceptions in this group are Benardrick McKinney and Anthony Barr. They are certainly full-time linebackers, albeit with quite low ceilings. They delineate tiers within this group.

Of note in this range, I think Jerome Baker is at risk of regression. He finished third among LBs in snaps but ninth in tackles. The relative inefficiency is explained by the time he spends on the defensive line. Given how many bodies the Dolphins have added to their LB room, Baker could see less time in the box this year. (I wrote about this, too.) He’s the one player who will surely be gone before this group comes into focus in a fantasy draft.

LB Insurance

Players filling out this list – Slots 63 to 70 – will likely become relevant only in the event of injury or illness among their teammates. The duos from Detroit and Kansas City are just too similar to allow one to thrive alongside the other. The remainder would find themselves in very productive roles if a teammate’s health suffers.

Strategy

Most fantasy gamers are suckers for name brands and draft capital. Older players and recent free-agent transfers will be available at a value in most fantasy drafts. Gamers should target both groups. Other drafters will reach past established veterans like Lavonte David and Danny Trevathan for upside. 

Your competition is likely to underappreciate the significance of a change of scenery or scheme. Their lack of knowledge will make Christian Kirksey and Nick Kwiatkoski look risky when in fact, they offer high upside.

Your league-mates will be enamored with the NFL’s first-round rookies, but later picks Jacob Phillips (Round 3) and Akeem Davis-Gaither (early Round 4) are going virtually ignored in both drafts and “expert consensus rankings.” The Browns and Bengals identified them during the NFL draft as linebackers who could help their respective teams. Both Ohio teams provide situations that will be fruitful for fantasy gamers chasing tacklers.

These players can help your fantasy team, too! Thanks for reading and don’t hesitate to reach out to me on Twitter for help with your drafts! 

Clemson and Michigan alum…Panthers and Cowboys fan…I try to see both sides of every debate and each trade. Find me on Twitter @DynastyTripp.