In this article, I am going to break down the Scott Fish Bowl scoring and try to identify who we should target in the early rounds and where the value picks are. First, I’ll look at the past two seasons to identify where the value is. It will be hard to know for sure until we know the ADP (average draft position).
| QB | RB | WR | TE | |||||||||
| PPG | ’25 | ’24 | AVG | ’25 | ’24 | AVG | ’25 | ’24 | AVG | ’25 | ’24 | AVG |
| 35+ | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1 |
| 32 – 35 | 4 | 5 | 4.5 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1.5 | 0 | 2 | 1 |
| 29 – 31 | 8 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 4 | 3.5 | 4 | 5 | 4.5 | 3 | 0 | 1.5 |
| 25 – 28 | 9 | 11 | 10 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 8 | 14 | 11 | 2 | 1 | 1.5 |
| 22 – 24 | 7 | 5 | 6 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 13 | 10 | 11.5 | 8 | 5 | 6.5 |
| 18 – 21 | 10 | 8 | 9 | 14 | 12 | 13 | 8 | 16 | 12 | 5 | 7 | 6 |
| 18+ | 39 | 33 | 36 | 23 | 25 | 24 | 36 | 49 | 42.5 | 19 | 16 | 17 |
I chose to look at 18+ fantasy points because that is when I hit 120 players. Since we need to start 10 players and there are 12 players in each league, they all need to start.
Quarterbacks
Consistency
- Josh Allen has been above 35 both years. Safest pick in the draft.
- Jared Goff has been above 31 both years. Sleeper pick.
- Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, and Bo Nix are all above 29 in both years.
- Sam Darnold and Patrick Mahomes both had above 27 both years.
- Dak Prescott has been over 26 both years.
- Baker Mayfield, Jordan Love, Joe Burrow, and Caleb Williams are all above 25 in both years.
The quarterbacks who have had at least 1 season with at least 32 points: Lamar Jackson, Joe Burrow, Baker Mayfield, Josh Allen(twice), Jared Goff, Matthew Stafford, Dak Prescott, Patrick Mahomes, Justin Herbert, Brock Purdy, Jalen Hurts, and Sam Darnold. Depending on the ADP, I think grabbing a couple of quarterbacks in the first 8 rounds is smart and then drafting a couple of back-ups in the latter half of the draft for upside. Do not get caught up in their rushing. Josh Allen seems like a solid first-round pick, though.
Running Backs
Consistency
- Jahmyr Gibbs has been above 31 both years. Safest running back pick in the draft.
- Jonathan Taylor has been above 30 both years.
- Bijan Robinson has been above 29 both years.
- Derrick Henry has been over 27 both years.
The running backs who have had at least 1 season with at least 30 points: Saquon Barkley, Jahmyr Gibbs (twice), Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor (twice), Christian McCaffrey, James Cook, and De’Von Achane.
Depending on the ADP, I think grabbing a couple of running backs in rounds 3-7 is smart, then drafting a couple of starters in the latter half of the draft for upside. Look for running backs who look like they are going to split or lead their backfields later in the draft. Jahmyr Gibbs and Bijan Robinson seem like solid first-round selections. Christian McCaffrey and Jonathan Taylor are worth first-round picks, but their ages are a little scary as they get past the age cliff for running backs.
Wide Receivers
Consistency
- Puka Nacua has been above 32 both years. Safest wide receiver pick in the draft.
- Ja’Marr Chase has been above 31 both years.
- Malik Nabers, CeeDee Lamb, and Nico Collins have been above 28 both years.
- Amon-Ra St. Brown and Rashee Rice have been above 27 both years.
- Jameson Williams and A.J. Brown have been over 26 both years. Jameson is my sleeper pick for the wide receivers.
The wide receivers who have had at least 1 season with at least 30 points: Puka Nacua (twice), Jaxon Smith-Njigba, George Pickens, Ja’Marr Chase (twice), Amon-Ra St. Brown, Drake London, Justin Jefferson, A.J. Brown, Nico Collins, and CeeDee Lamb.
Depending on the ADP, I think grabbing a couple of wide receivers in rounds 5 – 7 is smart and then drafting a couple of back-ups in the latter half of the draft for upside. Look for running backs who are pass catchers late in the draft. Puka Nacua, Ja’Marr Chase, and Jaxon Smith-Njigba seem like solid first-round selections.
Tight Ends
Consistency
- Trey McBride has been above 32 both years. Safest tight end pick in the draft.
- George Kittle has been above 30 both years.
- Brock Bowers has been above 29 both years.
The tight ends who have had at least 1 season with at least 26 points: George Kittle (twice), Trey McBride (twice), Brock Bowers (twice), Tucker Kraft, Kyle Pitts, and Dalton Kincaid.
Depending on the ADP, I think grabbing a couple of tight ends in rounds 5 – 8 is smart and then drafting a couple of other starters in the latter half of the draft for upside. Look for lead tight ends late in the draft. Trey McBride and Brock Bowers seem like solid first-round selections. I think I would skip tight ends in rounds 2 through 4, depending on ADP.
Summary
I think these are the guys most people will pick in the first round, as of now, from the research that I have done and the mock ADP being pulled so far from https://sfb.tradyr.app/sfb/mocks.
Quarterbacks
- Josh Allen
- Lamar Jackson
- Jayden Daniels
- Drake Maye
Running Backs
- Bijan Robinson
- Jahmyr Gibbs
- Christian McCaffrey
Wide Receivers
- Puka Nacua
- Jaxon Smith-Nijigba
- Ja’Marr Chase
Tight Ends
- Trey McBride
- Brock Bowers
My goal is to start with a couple of skill players in the first five rounds, most likely not a tight end (only 4 – 5 should be drafted in this range) or a quarterback (lots of value later). In rounds 6 – 9, I am going to be looking at grabbing 2 – 3 quarterbacks. I think they are tremendous value during these rounds. I think rounds 10 – 12, there are some great values on tight ends who are starters, so I will be targeting them, since you can start multiple tight ends, since positions do not matter. I know positions do not matter, but this is where I feel like values will be.
It is hard to predict the bonuses, but it is also hard to predict injuries as well.
Once I have some real-life ADP from when the live SFB starts, I will write another one about value picks and guys being picked too high based on value, but this is a fun tournament for charities, so go get your guys.
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