After recently releasing my rookie rankings, I wanted to open up the floor to constructive criticism. I also wanted to see where I was not aligned with other DFF analysts. So, we conducted a round table discussion. This discussion is now a 10-part series of informal articles. In these articles, analysts debate why some of their favorite rookie(s) should be moved up. And in one case, moved down!
We debated the rankings on Jalen Reagor, Henry Ruggs, Tee Higgins, Joe Burrow, Tua Tagovailoa, AJ Dillon, Bryan Edwards, Antonio Gandy-Golden, Zack Moss, and Joshua Kelley. We also touched upon players in their range, and who should be ascending or descending. I want to give a big thanks to everyone who contributed to this series of articles. I urge you to go follow them on twitter. Read the whole series for a number of opinions on players who could win you fantasy championships for years to come.
This is Part 2 of the series, where @ff_walrus and I discuss rookie Henry Ruggs III.
Rookie Henry Ruggs III, overall rank 10, WR5
@ff_walrus on why Ruggs should be lower:
In fairness, Henry Ruggs is a talented prospect. He possesses elite speed that is rarely seen on an NFL field. Ruggs being taken as the first WR off the board is still shocking to me. Or, more importantly, it’s shocking to a number of football analysts whose names you do know. But Ruggs also brings his fair share of red flags. This wide receiver draft class has several great options at the top. Accordingly, there are several players that should be taken ahead of Ruggs. A mix of Day 1 and Day 2 talent should all be off the board before the 2020 first selection. Lamb, Jeudy, Reagor, Jefferson, and Higgins should all be going over Ruggs without a doubt. The red flags that Ruggs’ game presents, along with the landing spot in Las Vegas, all set up Ruggs to disappoint as a dynasty option.
College Production: This is no secret, and certainly has been a well-publicized concern surrounding Ruggs. But for those that haven’t been paying attention- Ruggs’ target share, dominator rating, and breakout are all major areas of concern. There are those that would point to the likes of Jeudy, Smith, and Ridley for teammates as the cause of that small production. However, they would also need to look back to his final high school season, in which Ruggs commanded under 40 targets. Ruggs’ game-breaking speed is undeniable. However, his lack of dynamic play and ability to command a major share of an offense are all red flags for his current price in dynasty drafts.
Raiders Volume: The 2019 Raiders seemed like they were desperate for even a sniff of a WR1. They were a heavy favorite to walk away from Round 1 with a flashy new receiver, it just didn’t seem like it would be this receiver. As we saw with Ruggs’ college target share and production, he has never commanded the volume that a true WR1 carries in the NFL. This is a player that has never seen major volume at any level. It’s no secret that the Raiders are in need of pass-catchers. None of their WRs logged over 75 targets in 2019. While this seems like good news for Ruggs, it isn’t necessarily so when considering the larger picture.
The Raiders also brought in Bryan Edwards, who is used to commanding more attention from QBs, extended the contract of Darren Waller (over 110 targets last year), saw a major step up from rookie slot man Hunter Renfrow (Raiders’ leading receiver), and will have Tyrell Williams returning. Worth noting is that 21% of team targets last season went to running backs. Simply put, there might not be a lot of room, or team motivation, for Ruggs to rack up a higher target share than we saw from him at Alabama.
Lack of Dynamic Play: Ruggs is a burner, no one can deny that. But worth noting is that the Alabama offense used a lot of pre-snap motions to forcibly generate space between Ruggs and his defenders. Rather than leaving it to Ruggs to create this separation on his own, the team felt the need to do it for him. As Ruggs takes a step to the big stage, defenses will be better able to account for this. Therefore, Ruggs might not be able to enjoy the same separation that allowed him to fully utilize his home run ability. The lack of developed route tree will be a major hurdle in Ruggs becoming the WR1 for this squad, as it will be difficult for him to command the volume he would need to do so.
The ceiling for Ruggs could be a Tyreek Hill-like explosion. However, we have countless John Ross and Ted Ginn type speedsters who never developed a fully rounded game and thereby never became elite fantasy options. Anyone else looking for an example would have to look no further than the…Raiders! The Raiders also took a receiver that no one expected to go as high as he did in the first round way back in 2007. A Combine superstar, Darrius Heyward-Bey would go on to have one good season. He would then phenomenally underwhelm for the remainder of his career. And remain the cause of dynasty owner first-round PTSD for years to come!
Ruggs is certainly worth drafting – if you can get him at the right price. And that price is behind the likes of Lamb, Jeudy, Jefferson, Reagor, Higgins, and possibly even Mims. They are all more fully developed receivers who have shown the ability to carry a high target share. Each of them also has juicier opportunities in their rookie year or the near future and beyond.
@DYNASTYDIAGNOS1 counter:
The Henry Ruggs defense is certainly a difficult one. No one has more ammo against Ruggs than, well, literally anyone who has been on twitter the past three months. It is undeniable that Ruggs is an elite athlete. He can arguably be the most dynamic player on the field each and every snap he takes.
Let us also not forget that Henry Ruggs was the first wide receiver drafted in potentially the deepest wide receiver class of all time. Just imagine the pressure on Gruden to prove that he made the right choices with these high draft picks. Especially after considering that Gruden chose to trade perennial all-pro Khalil Mack to accumulate picks and begin a rebuild. While Ruggs was not directly a component of the Mack trade, he is a big part of the Raiders’ rebuild plan.
Ruggs’ production in college is certainly a red flag. However, let’s take that lack of production with a grain of salt. From 2017-2019, Alabama was one of the greatest offenses that college football has seen. From day one, Ruggs was competing with Calvin Ridley (first-rounder), Jerry Jeudy (first-rounder), Irv Smith (second-rounder), Jaylen Waddle (projected first-rounder), and DeVonta Smith (potential first-rounder). Maybe we should be heavily discounting the stats that Tua put up based on the premier talent surrounding him!
Ruggs joins a team that is lacking elite receiving options. While he certainly won’t be the WR1 the day he steps on the field in 2020, it is surmisable that he may work himself into that role in the coming years. As a cross-sport reference, remember when Giannis Antetokounmpo was “two years away from being two years away” when he was drafted? JK I’m not making a Rugg-Giannis comp.
Regarding Ruggs working into a future WR1 role in Las Vegas, it is certainly in Ruggs’ range of outcomes. Remember how enticing Antonio Brown in Jon Gruden’s offense was before he completely went off the rails? The thought of Ruggs getting WR1 targets with his game-changing abilities is tantalizing. Just as a reminder, since becoming the Eagles OC in 1995, Gruden’s top pass catcher has averaged 134 targets per season. This includes the two seasons that Gruden was the Raiders head coach with tight ends leading the team in targets. If Ruggs can work into the WR1 role, he’s looking at 134 targets, 79 receptions for 1,127-yards, and 7TDs. That’s good for 234 PPR points, which settles into a fantasy WR2 for years to come.
Because of Ruggs’ rawness and his athletic profile, this will lead to a very boom-bust career on a week-to-week basis. It may also potentially lead to a longer road to gaining a WR1 role. I understand why some fantasy owners and analysts are scared off by the volatility. But at the end of the first round in rookie drafts when there is a guy who could potentially go off and win a fantasy championship? I am drafting that guy without hesitation.
Conclusion
I agree with you that Ruggs will take a bit longer to develop than the players you listed. However, I like his long term value more than Higgins and Mims. I will further investigate Mims’ profile to see whether he should be moved above Higgins. And potentially Ruggs as well.
Thank you for reading our article! If you would like to debate any of the above, reach out to us on twitter. And I hope you join us for Rookie Round Table Part 3, where @WillieBeamanDFF and I debate Tee Higgins.
The rest of this informal Rookie Round Table Discussion can be found here: Part 1: Jalen Reagor,
Keep an eye out for my future articles. You can find my previous articles in the Dynasty Football Factory archive. You can also follow us on Twitter. @DynastyDiagnos1,@RookieWhisper, @ff_walrus, @WillieBeamanDFF, @DynastyTripp, @DFF_Ztrain, @ff_spaceman, @DFF_Karp, and @CKarayannides.
