Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (preseason edition). Week 2 of the preseason is just about over, and we are just over two weeks away from the regular season. Positional battles are ramping up. Injuries are opening up opportunities for players looking to earn significant roles and/or roster spots. And the time to be the most active in dynasty leagues is NOW. We are going to hear “hype” reports from beat reporters. And we are going to hear some reports that make us feel a little uneasy about our player investments. Us dynasty managers must constantly research ways to bolster our rosters. In this continuation series, we will dive deep into one player whose dynasty stock is increasing and one player whose dynasty stock is decreasing from each team in every division. Today, we will break down the NFC South. 

BUCCANEERS

STOCK UP – LEONARD FOURNETTE

Year	Team	Games Played	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry	TDs	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2017	JAX	13	268	1,040	3.9	9	36	302	8.4	1
2018	JAX	8	133	439	3.3	5	22	185	8.4	1
2019	JAX	15	265	1,152	4.3	3	76	522	6.9	0
2020	TB	13	97	367	3.8	6	36	233	6.5	0
2021	TB	14	180	812	4.5	8	69	454	6.6	2

You don’t usually see a 27-year-old running back in the “stock up” category, but there’s no denying that Fournette is perceived as the three-down back for Tampa Bay for the next couple of years. After a breakout 2021 campaign, the Buccaneers decided to let go of Ronald Jones and bring in a pass-catching back in the draft (Rachaad White). The thought was that their free agent acquisition from the last offseason, Giovani Bernard, was going to serve as the team’s primary pass-catcher out of the backfield in 2021. Instead, Fournette finished with his second-most receptions and receiving yards of his five-year career last season (69 for 454) while also hauling in a career-high two receiving touchdowns. While we all know that Fournette is locked in as the starter this season, White has struggled with ball security issues in his first two preseason games. So for now, Ke’Shawn Vaughn looks to be the favorite to serve as Fournette’s backup. That bodes well for the 27-year-old, as Vaughn is not deemed a prolific pass-catcher out of the backfield. 

When we say Fournette’s dynasty stock is increasing, you should roster him on your team in hopes that he can serve as a fringe RB1 for the next couple of years. In dynasty start-ups, selecting him in the late-fifth/early-sixth is an ideal spot in 12-team leagues. If you’re worried about three years from now, trade him now if you want the most from him in return, but if you’re pushing for a championship, he’s worth trading for. He finished as the RB6 in PPR leagues last season while missing three games. What’s even more impressive is that he produced the fourth-most PPR points per game on the season behind Derrick Henry, Jonathan Taylor, and Austin Ekeler. Before missing those three games, he was on track to finish as the RB3 (Weeks 1-15). So even though he wasn’t there for the fantasy playoffs, he surely helped you get there. Don’t overlook Fournette in the fantasy world. There aren’t many running backs that can do what he does. He finished third amongst all backs last season in total receptions (69). Only he, Ekeler, and Najee Harris finished with 60-plus receptions, 400-plus receiving yards, and 800-plus rushing yards in 2021. 

Fournette’s 2022 Prediction

Rushing: 191 carries, 840 yards, 9 touchdowns

Receiving: 56 receptions, 437 yards, 2 touchdowns

STOCK DOWN – SCOTTY MILLER

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2019	TB	10	26	13	200	15.4	1
2020	TB	16	53	33	501	15.2	3
2021	TB	9	9	5	38	7.6	0

It’s not looking good for Scotty Miller these days. Just two seasons removed from topping 500 receiving yards and playing a key role in Tampa Bay’s 2020 Super Bowl run, the speedster now finds himself fighting for a spot on the active roster. Chris Godwin recently returned to practice, as he joins Mike Evans in one of the most skilled receiving rooms in the league. Tampa Bay also brought in some key free agent acquisitions, Julio Jones and Russell Gage. Those four seem safe, so Miller is competing with Tyler Johnson, Jaelon Darden, Breshad Perriman, and a couple of undrafted rookies for a spot on this team. Johnson looks to be safe, as he’s put together a solid camp, while also hauling in a combined eight receptions for 97 yards in two preseason games. So it looks like the last WR spot is going to go to either Miller, Darden, Perriman (all three saw time on the field last regular season), or one of those rookies (Deven Thompkins, Kaylon Geiger). 

How has Miller’s preseason gone so far? He’s had just as many drops as he does receptions (1). The best thing that could happen to Miller is that he gets released and signs with another team. That way he could carve out a role that would make him fantasy relevant once again. But let’s say he makes the Buccaneers’ 53-man roster. He’s going to be used more as a special teams player who’s going into the final year of his contract. Evans, Godwin, Gage, Darden, Johnson, Thompkins, and Geiger all have contracts that push past the 2023 season. Tampa Bay probably wouldn’t even use a practice squad spot for Miller if he were to get cut, considering both Thompkins and Geiger have partially guaranteed contracts until 2025. At this point, he’s not worth a roster spot in deeper dynasty leagues. If you still have any shares, you more than likely won’t be able to trade him, and you might as well cut your ties now. 

Miller’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 11 receptions, 133 yards

FALCONS

STOCK UP –  TYLER ALLGEIER

Year	School	Class	Games Played	Carries	Yards	TDs	Receptions	Yards	TDs
2018	BYU	FR	4	9	49	0	1	-3	0
2019	BYU	FR	11	17	119	0	3	67	1
2020	BYU	SO	11	150	1,130	13	14	174	0
2021	BYU	SO	13	276	1,601	23	28	199	0

The hype train is starting to spark fire as we approach the regular season. After an impressive Week 1 preseason performance, many believe Allgeier could overtake the RB1 spot ahead of Cordarrelle Patterson sooner rather than later. Against Detroit a week ago, the rookie from BYU carried the ball three times for 25 yards while playing with the second string in the second half. Even though he didn’t see a ton of looks, he was used as a pass-blocker a decent amount late in the game. He even had a huge block that slowed down a heavy blitz, giving time for Desmond Ridder to toss the game-winning touchdown with 1:30 left in the game. Although Damien Williams, Qadree Ollison, and Caleb Huntley saw the field before him, there’s no need to panic. We should see a lot more opportunities thrown his way against the Jets to finish Week 2 of the preseason. 

Even if he doesn’t take over the RB1 spot for this team this year, his future outlook is very bright. Williams, Ollison, and Huntley have expiring contracts after this season, and Patterson is already 31 years old. We all know that Arthur Smith, the Falcons’ head coach, wants to design a run-first approach this season. He’s going to use multiple backs in his system just like he did last season when both Patterson and Mike Davis were involved. Allgeier has the profile to carry a heavy workload as well. He’s 5’11” and 221 lbs and runs a 4.6 40-time. He’s a strong back who claims that he’s in the best shape of his life. We’ve seen the dominant play from his BYU days. During his last 24 collegiate games, he averaged 6.4 yards per attempt while producing 2,731 yards and 42 touchdowns. It may take some time, but Allgeier should be fantasy relevant at some point this season. 

Allgeier’s 2022 Prediction

Rushing: 146 carries, 599 yards, 4 touchdowns

Receiving: 16 receptions, 149 yards, 1 touchdown

STOCK DOWN – CORDARRELLE PATTERSON

Year	Team	Games Played	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry	TDs	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2013	MIN	16	12	158	13.2	3	45	469	10.4	4
2014	MIN	16	10	117	11.7	1	33	384	11.6	1
2015	MIN	16	2	15	7.5	0	2	10	5.0	0
2016	MIN	16	7	43	6.1	0	52	453	8.7	2
2017	OAK	16	13	121	9.3	2	31	309	10.0	0
2018	NE	15	42	228	5.4	1	21	247	11.8	3
2019	CHI	16	17	103	6.1	0	11	83	7.5	0
2020	CHI	16	64	232	3.6	1	21	132	6.3	0
2021	ATL	16	153	618	4.0	6	52	548	10.5	5

If you’re targeting Patterson in redraft leagues, by all means, go ahead (I won’t). But if you think he’s worth stashing on your dynasty roster long-term, you’ve got some rethinking. I understand that he finished with career highs in rushing attempts, rushing yards, rushing touchdowns, receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, and tied his career-high for receptions last season. But that was a bit of an anomaly. Atlanta had no running back of the future on their roster, and they were always playing from behind as one of the worst teams in the league in 2021. They will more than likely be one of those teams again this year, but drafting Allgeier and bringing in Williams will cut into Patterson’s production more than most people think. 

Between Weeks 1-13 last season, Patterson served as the RB6. But in Weeks 14-18, he produced as the RB42. What exactly do you think is going to happen this year or the year after? This team wants to rebuild and compete for Divisional titles sooner than later. That’s not going to happen when you start a 31-year-old back with nine years of experience. He also wants to break the kickoff return touchdown record. If Atlanta allows him to return kickoffs, that should be an early indicator that he’s not this team’s three-down back this season. If you want to get the most value from him in a dynasty league, trading him now will net the largest return for your team. There are always a couple of dynasty managers looking to strengthen their RB room. Trade Patterson to one of them and move on from a gadget player who will likely disappoint you this season if you hold onto him.   

Patterson’s 2022 Prediction

Rushing: 111 carries, 433 yards, 4 touchdowns

Receiving: 41 receptions, 385 yards, 3 touchdowns

PANTHERS

STOCK UP – TOMMY TREMBLE

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2021	CAR	16	35	20	180	9.0	1

Any Carolina pass-catcher who plays a significant role gets an immediate upgrade after the Baker Mayfield trade. No, Mayfield doesn’t bring elite play at the quarterback position, but he’s certainly able to support his receivers and tight ends better than Sam Darnold can. Tommy Tremble is expected to slide into the TE1 spot this season ahead of Ian Thomas, Colin Thompson, and Jared Scott. The Panthers do run a ton of two-tight end sets, which would mean Thomas would line up opposite of Tremble mainly as a run-blocker. The team does have a decent amount of skilled receivers on the team that would likely see more volume than Tremble (D.J. Moore, Robby Anderson, Terrace Marshall Jr., and Rashard Higgins). And Christian McCaffrey is back, so expect him to draw a ton of targets as well. Nonetheless, Tremble could serve as a viable streaming tight end option this season and going forward. 

After a decent rookie season, hauling in 20 receptions for 180 yards and one touchdown, Carolina expects him to be used a little more heavily this season in passing situations. He’s only hauled in one reception for four yards in limited play this preseason, but camp reports have raved about how he is standing out as the lead tight end over Thomas thus far. Looking long-term, both Thomas and Tremble are under contract until 2025, but Tremble is four years younger with a higher receiving upside. Although Mayfield struggled to support Odell Beckham Jr. and Jarvis Landry in the fantasy aspect of things, he is known for relying on the tight end position. Last season alone, he completed 82 passes to the position for 918 yards and nine touchdowns in 14 games played. On average, the tight end position hauled in about six passes for 66 yards and a half a score a game. With that in mind, Tremble should see an uptick in production this season and going forward. 

Tremble’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 34 receptions, 323 yards, 3 touchdowns

STOCK DOWN – TERRACE MARSHALL JR.

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2021	CAR	13	30	17	138	8.1	0

What an atrocious rookie season Marshall Jr. put together last season. Did you know he hauled in just three receptions for 22 yards after Week 6? Before then, he was the WR92. Then he finished the season as the WR139. Considering he was slated as the team’s WR3 on the depth chart the entire season, that’s pretty terrible. The former second-round pick from last year’s draft is facing more competition in the wide receiver room than he did a year ago. Carolina decided to bring in Rashard Higgins, Mayfield’s former teammate from Cleveland, and veteran Andre Roberts on one-year deals. They also signed undrafted free agent rookies Ra’Shaun Henry and Derek Wright on partially guaranteed contracts that expire in 2025, the same year Marshall Jr.’s does. It also doesn’t help that Moore was extended until 2026. 

So far this preseason, there have been mixed reports surrounding the LSU product. Shi Smith, Carolina’s sixth-round wide receiver selection from last year, is listed behind Marshall Jr. on their first official depth chart, but even he is outperforming him during the offseason thus far. Smith has hauled in three receptions for 42 yards in two preseason games while Marshall Jr. has yet to see the field, as he nurses a hamstring injury. The injuries are what’s haunting his dynasty value. He practiced last Monday after missing time, then didn’t practice the rest of the week and opted not to play in Week 2 of the preseason against New England. Coach Matt Rhule stated that “there isn’t really a plan (for Marshall).” He goes on to say that they “need him to step up. Shi (Smith)’s had a great camp, (Rashard) Higgins had a great camp. (Brandon) Zylstra’s out with a hamstring, so we need him to step up because he was having a great camp until he got hurt.” If he continues to nurse injuries throughout his young career as well as perform poorly on the field, there isn’t a reason to hold onto him, even on a taxi squad. There are too many young, talented skilled players that deserve to be rostered over Marshall Jr. in dynasty. Go ahead and try to trade him away for a return, but a simple release won’t hurt too much. 

Marshall Jr.’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 24 receptions, 252 yards, 2 touchdowns

SAINTS

STOCK UP – MICHAEL THOMAS

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2016	NO	15	121	92	1,137	12.4	9
2017	NO	16	149	104	1,245	12.0	5
2018	NO	16	147	125	1,405	11.2	9
2019	NO	16	185	149	1,725	11.6	9
2020	NO	7	55	40	438	11.0	0

It’s hard to be optimistic about a player who hasn’t hauled in a touchdown since Dec. 22 of 2019. At that time, he was busy breaking the single-season reception record. Since then, he has missed 26 regular season games and has topped 100 receiving yards just twice. But here’s the thing. He is healthy and away from the Sean Payton drama that ultimately set him back due to an unhealthy relationship. Now he’ll haul in passes from Jameis Winston while lining up next to Chris Olave and Jarvis Landry. Those two will open up more opportunities for him, but at the same time, you can’t expect the 2019 version of Thomas again. Right now, he’s slated to go near the end of the seventh round in dynasty start-ups. Even though he’s 29 years old, he should serve as a WR2 or better (if healthy) for the next few years. 

Will we see him top 100 receptions ever again? Possibly not. Will he top 1,000 yards again? I would bet money on that. Head Coach Dennis Allen says that he has been standing out in practice and that he should be good to go for Week 1. He should be tied next to Olave for years to come, but don’t expect Landry to stay in this receiving room for a long time. His contract is set to expire after the season. Yes, relying on a player who has essentially missed the last two seasons is a bit of a gamble. But he’s cheap right now, and if you want to go out and trade for him, the time to do it is now. You will be kicking yourself if you try to trade for him after the season starts when he looks a bit like his old self. And if you don’t want anything to do with him but still have shares, wait until that first big game and trade him away for a decent return. Hold onto him for now and you will more than likely not regret it. 

Thomas’ 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 88 receptions, 1,003 yards, 6 touchdowns

STOCK DOWN – JARVIS LANDRY

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2014	MIA	11	112	84	758	9.0	5
2015	MIA	14	166	110	1,157	10.5	4
2016	MIA	16	131	94	1,136	12.1	4
2017	MIA	16	161	112	987	8.8	9
2018	CLE	14	149	81	976	12.0	4
2019	CLE	16	138	83	1,174	14.1	6
2020	CLE	14	101	72	840	11.7	3
2021	CLE	12	87	52	570	11.0	2

As mentioned above, Landry signed with New Orleans this offseason on a one-year deal. He joins a receiving room that features Olave, Thomas, Marquez Callaway, Tre’Quan Smith, and Deonte Harty. The past couple of seasons has shown a bit of a digression for Landry and his production. You can blame that on Mayfield and the Browns all you want, but a receiver going into his ninth season more than likely loses a step anyways. The 29-year-old will have a tough time carving out a prominent role next to a healthy Thomas and up-and-coming star in Olave. To make matters worse, Alvin Kamara won’t likely see a suspension this season, which means even fewer targets for Landry. Oh, and one more thing, getting tossed out of practice due to fighting a player in joint practices doesn’t bode well. 

Landry has yet to suit up for the Saints during their two preseason games. Although he’s back in his hometown, the Saints don’t owe him anything long-term. And it would be hard to see them extending him after this season unless he takes over as the team’s WR1 over Thomas and Olave. There’s too much money tied to the position, and if Olave turns into anything special, they’ll have to pay him in a few years as well. For PPR leagues, he’s worth rostering, but don’t expect him to be a viable every-week starter, especially on a team that predicates their offense around Kamara (and possibly Thomas again). He’ll likely see a featured role this season, and if you want to trade him away, do so before the season. His trade value will likely plummet once we see that first big game from either Thomas or Olave. 

Landry’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 56 receptions, 633 yards, 3 touchdowns

Other Divisional Breakdowns: NFC North, AFC North 

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