WIDE RECEIVER, TEXAS CHRISTIAN, ELIGIBLE FOR 2023 NFL DRAFT
Quentin Johnston is a 6’4” 193 lbs. four-star wide receiver for the Texas Christian Horned Frogs. He was the WR14 and 71st player overall in the 2020 class.
PAST PRODUCTION (COLLEGE STATS)
This past season as a true freshmen Johnston led the Horned Frogs in receiving yards with 487. He was second on the team in receiving TDs with two. This may not seem like a lot but when you realize that TCU only passed for 196 yards-per-game. You see that Quentin commanded nearly one-third of the team’s receiving yards as freshmen (on a per-game basis). His production was strong enough for a “breakout” season as he comfortably eclipsed the 20% Dominator Rating many people use to classify a “breakout”.
Compared to the other true freshmen, Johnston was the best of the bunch among the big names when it comes to Adjusted Dominator Rating from this past season:
|2020 Adjusted Dominator Rating|
Heading into the 2021 Season fellow receivers JD Speilman and Taye Barber will be looking to cut into Quentin Johnston’s production. Taye Barber will be a Senior and was second on the team in receiving yards in 2020 with 318. I do not see him as a big threat to Johnston’s target share seeing that in his 3 years of college football he was not eclipsed 400 receiving yards.
The real threat to Johnston is Senior JD Speilman. The transfer from Nebraska was very productive at Nebraska, going for over 800 yards in all three of his seasons with the Cornhuskers. Speilman only played three games last season with TCU before hurting this shoulder and missing the rest of the season. I think Speilman has a real shot at leading the Horned Frogs in both receptions and receiving yards in 2021 which could put a damper on Johnston’s value. If Quentin were to take a back seat to JD Speilman in 2021 it is not a death sentence, Johnston would just need a strong 2022 as a Junior to rebound his stock.
With the 2022 Draft seemingly so far away the value and rankings of the WRs will fluctuate greatly between now and the draft. Although Johnston led the big-name freshmen in adjusted per game dominator rating in 2020, I believe it would be unwise to predict he does it again. As I mentioned above JD Speilman is a very good WR. And is almost certain to command a lot of the targets in an already inefficient TCU offense. In addition to Johnston potentially seeing a deep in his team’s market share, I believe it would be safe to say Kayshon Boutte is primed to blow up in 2021. Boutte’s main competition for targets in Terrace Marshall has declared for the draft, leaving Boutte to be the clear favorite to lead the LSU receivers.
For these reasons, I would not be surprised if going into next season Quentin Johnston is not is no longer a Top 5 WR in the 2022 Draft Class. Jordan Addison and Rakim Jarrett are also in better situations to command targets than Quentin Johnston. Considering all the WRs are pretty tightly bunched in value behind Boutte, I think Johnston is a bit of a risky buy considering the potential for a down year in 2021.
I would not be surprised if Quentin Johnston manages a solid 2021 due to great efficiency. However, JD Speilman will likely lead the team in target but that doesn’t mean Johnston still can’t produce. In 2020 was 2nd on the team in targets, with seven less than Taye Barber but had over 150 yards more due to his absurd 22.1 YPC. With Spielman drawing additional coverage Johnston could find success as a very effective second option. The Spielman Johnston dynamic is a situation to keep up with in 2021.
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