We have a mantra at Dynasty Football Factory that has propelled a focus on consistent construction and evaluation of our dynasty rosters: #AlwaysBeBuilding. My rankings are built with the same forward direction. I aspire to be as transparent as possible in my process to provide you with a better understanding of how to value players.
These rankings will be continuously updated to reflect an ever-improving player evaluation process. Allow me to walk you through some of the essential anchors I base these rankings around.
Process
Remove Bias
I attempt to remove bias and fandom from my process altogether. Every player is put through the same rigorous standard to decipher a proper ranking founded on insulated value and current production.
Value Source
Player value and rankings are consistently cross-referenced with all expert consensus rankings on major platforms. Orders and values are adjusted to reflect a combination of market consensus and personal evaluation.
Historical Data
Historical analytics are used to reference the “stickiness” of a player’s ranking based on age, production, and previous ADP. To better understand how historical ADP affects a player’s congruent future value, check out Bulletproof BeanCounter’s thread on Twitter.
Future Outlook/Range of Outcomes
Rankings will favor players in stable team situations with a strong future outlook. The range of outcomes (R.O.O) is based on historical statistical thresholds and cross-compared with several reference points such as DFF’s Ian Miller’s R.O.O model.
Rookie Rankings
Rookies are evaluated based on combined metrics of college production, athletic scores, combined stats, and draft/landing spot. Talent will always reign supreme when ranking rookies. Advanced college analytics are self-adjusted and cross-referenced with Pahowdy’s CFB Database for accuracy.
Rankings Reveal
As we roll out our rankings for the 2022 season and beyond, I wanted to explain a few of my picks that are against expert consensus.
Josh Allen QB (BUF)
QB1 (Overall Ranking: 1.0)
Many will point at the first name on my rankings as an attempt to be a contrarian. I will point at the first name on my rankings and say Josh Allen is the first quarterback since 2003-2004 (Daunte Culpepper) to have congruent seasons as the overall QB1 and leader in FPTS.
Going against the grain and choosing Allen over Patrick Mahomes as the number one overall pick in Superflex startups should not be viewed as a blasphemous narrative. Both players score at the top of the position in advanced passing analytics, with Allen possessing immense rushing upside.
Analysts preach the value of a “Konami Code” dual-threat QB. Well, Allen harnesses unmatchable throwing power and efficiency coupled with a pretense for massive rushing volume. In a game based around scoring the most points, I prefer the guy that scores the most points, and that guy is Josh Allen.
Christian McCaffrey RB (CAR)
RB2 (Overall Ranking: 12.0)
I referenced Christian McCaffrey’s near-unfair receiving efficiency in Vol.3 of the Fantasy Fact or Cap article for Dynasty Football Factory. My sentiments towards McCaffrey’s extraordinary dual-threat abilities and game-breaking PPG numbers have kept him in my top-tier fantasy assets.
McCaffrey averaged an 18.6% target share when on the field in 2021. His 3.85 yards per route ranked tops amongst all running backs, albeit in just seven games played. He has dropped in several rankings due to injury concerns. However, at only 25 years old, with a stacked resume of sustained production, McCaffrey is in line to fully recover his league-winning form in 2022.
Marquise Brown WR (BAL)
WR16 (Overall Ranking: 48.0)
There is an ongoing narrative in the fantasy football community that the development of Rashod Bateman will destroy the value of “Hollywood” Marquise Brown. I am not quick to write off Hollywood’s lead-receiving role. I do not believe the ascent of Bateman to be a mutually exclusive factor that will prevent Hollywood from seeing valuable targets in the Ravens offense.
Hollywood posted career-best numbers across the board in 2021, leading the Ravens in target percentage (26.7%), routes (519), and route participation (90.4%) per PlayerProfiler. Hollywood exceeded all thresholds for “alpha” receiver usage. He achieved those metrics amidst Bateman’s late-season breakout and Mark Andrews’ stunning TE1 season. I believe Hollywood to be the leading pass-catcher on the Ravens, and you should be valuing him as such.
Dalton Schultz TE (DAL)
TE6 (Overall Ranking: 61.0)
At what point should we begin to evaluate and label a player as a top-ten option at the tight end position. After an early career breakout? After finishing a season with a top-12 ranking in PPG and overall FPTS? How about multiple finishes in that tier? Dalton Schultz has accomplished all three of those things. In his fourth NFL season, at 25 years old, Schultz recorded his second consecutive top-12 season, finishing as TE3 overall after a TE11 season in 2020.
Schultz set career highs in targets (106), receptions (78), receiving yards (808), and receiving touchdowns (8) in 2021. His connection with the Cowboys’ franchise quarterback Dak Prescott cannot be understated. Schultz should continue to have a solidified role as Prescott’s go-to target across the middle.
The tier between elite and average tight ends is a terrifying cliff. 123.4 FPTS separated the overall TE1 from TE5 in 2021. Only 22.7 FPTS separated TE5 from TE12. I believe Dalton Schultz sits atop the second tier and has proved he can produce consistent production at that level.
Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.
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Please follow me on LinkTree to stay updated on all of my content: @PsychWardFF. You can also find my other works as the Lead Writer at BRoto Fantasy Football and a Staff Writer at Dynasty Football Factory.
