Post-Season Dynasty Rookie Rankings: Running Backs 7-10

We did it, fam. We made it through one of the craziest Fantasy Regular Seasons I’ve experienced in a decade because of either injury, Covid, odd bye week scheduling due to the extra game, or more injuries. But alas, we’ve reached the bittersweet transition into the Post-Season and it’s time to game-plan a playoff push or rebuild for 2022 and beyond. Managers should be making moves with the 2021 Rookie Class regardless of whether they’re winners or losers. And what better way to help ensure the right moves are being made than by creating a soon-to-be controversial Dynasty Rankings list by position. We’ll rank and assess The Good, The Bad, and The Ugly Truth of all the high-profile rookies to gauge their dynasty trade value starting with running backs.

10 – Jermar Jefferson, Detroit Lions

Regular Season Stats

Games Started: 0 | Games Played: 5 | PFF Grade: 77.9

Fantasy Scoring: Standard: 21 (RB82) | PPR: 24.8 (RB85)

Measurements: HT: 5’10” | WT: 206 | 40: 4.57 | Shuttle: 4.38 | Vert: 31 | Cone: 7.38

Rushing: 10/65/2 | YPG: 13 | YPC: 6.5 | YAC: 13 | YBC: 52 | BrkTkl: 0 | RZ%: 5.4

Snap Percentage: 3.4%

Receiving: 4/23/0 | RPG: 0.8 | YPG: 4.6 | YPC: 5.8 | YAC: 21 

Target Percentage: 1.2%

The Good

There’s not much “good” when you fall to Lions in the seventh round. But it’s fortunate that he has a clear path to cut out a steady role in the future as long as OC Anthony Lynn sticks around and continues to utilize two backs. D’Andre Swift is the A1 Alpha and will see all of the third-down and two-minute drill work. That super-duper matters on a team that will consistently find themselves behind the chains and the scoreboard. Early-downs, short-yardage, and red zone vulturing are the only realistic pathways to fantasy relevance. He has run efficiently in his limited action and posted a modest PFF Score (taken with a tiny grain of salt) and should see a boost in usage while Swift recovers from injury.

The Bad

Jamaal Williams will most likely still be around next season and Jermar Jefferson is an unathletic plodder with no draft capital. Moreover, the opportunities available are low-quality on a team this bad as aforementioned. There’s not even concrete certainty around the quarterback or coaching staff.

The Ugly Truth 

Jefferson has little Dynasty Value for anyone beyond D’Andre Swift managers and you need to move him while his current value is as high as it is. His ceiling is being a younger Jamaal Williams at best. His floor is a depth player that will be on the roster bubble for another season before washing out.

*All advanced stats VIA ProFootball Reference

9 – Travis Etienne, Jacksonville Jaguars 

Regular Season Stats: DNP

Measurements: HT: 5’10” | WT: 215 | 40: 4.45 | Shuttle: 4.38 | Vert: 33 

OUT WITH LISFRANC INJURY

The Good

Travis Etienne is a fantastic prospect that has the tools to be an Alvin Kamara-type fantasy asset in a vacuum. The Clemson rookie has the best athleticism out of the 2021 RBs besides Elijah Mitchell to go along with elite receiving skills to make him a quality check-down option for any rookie QB. It just so happens that the rookie quarterback he was drafted alongside also happens to be his former college teammate. That means…something. It certainly indicates an amount of trust and rapport but isn’t as relevant as NFL Announcers interjecting that anecdote at any opportunity make it sound. The Jaguars are still desperate for playmakers beyond James Robinson, Dan Arnold, and the underwhelming Laviska Shenault so there will be plenty of opportunities for Etienne to take over the offense. Jacksonville honestly needs him to be a weapon with the high draft capital they spent.

The Bad

Etienne is a fantastic prospect in a vacuum as I previously mentioned but he’s surrounded by uncertainty. Let’s start with his environment. The Jaguars aren’t good at all. Not on offense. Not on Defense. Trevor Lawrence is one of the team’s two bright spots but even he has regressed to the franchise’s usual standard of mediocrity. The other bright spot that also doubles as a stain on Etienne’s upside is James Robinson. Folks may not want to believe it, but he’s played well and still looks like a quality running back worth much more than his non-existent draft capital. 

Moreover, HC Urban Meyer is still obsessed with his old players like Carlos Hyde. Robinson hasn’t even gotten the carries he’s deserved because of this continuous exercise of ineptitude. Jacksonville has a problem that starts with the head of the coaching staff bleeding failure down to the entire roster. 

Then we finally need to address the injury that kept him out for the entire season. DFF’s injury analyst lays out the details (must read) that athletes typically experience a 21% decline in production. Keep in mind that this decrease is on top of requiring the time to adapt to the speed and nuances of the NFL while on a terrible team. You only need to remember how Zac Taylor wasted Joe Mixon’s season trying to play him during recovery in 2020 to come to the realistic realization that Etienne might not be 100% until 2023.  

The Ugly Truth 

Travis Etienne is a long-term stash with some massive hurdles on his path to fantasy relevance. The injury makes 2022 the real rookie season that is full of uncertainty. Again, Etienne is a great prospect and phenomenal athlete in a vacuum but trading assets in the name of upside is asking talent to overcome more than just a bad situation.  

8 – Kenneth Gainwell, Philadelphia Eagles

Regular Season Stats

Games Started: 0 | Games Played: 12 | PFF Grade: 69.8

Fantasy Scoring: Standard: 75 (RB36) | PPR: 102.7 (RB34)

Measurements: HT: 5’9” | WT: 201 | 40: 4.42

Rushing: 55/209/4 | YPG: 17.4 | YPC: 3.8 | YAC: 57 | YBC: 152 | BrkTkl: 4 | RZ%: 10.3%

Snap Percentage: 28.6%

Receiving: 28/238/1 | RPG: 2.3 | YPG: 19.8 | YPC: 8.5 | YAC: 212 

Target Percentage: 10.8%

The Good

Kenneth Gainwell had a surprisingly warm start to the season as a low-cost sleeper for those who drafted him and was a vulture for those who owned Miles Sanders without the handcuff. Rookie HC Nick Siriani utilized Gainwell in the same role as he used Nyheim Hines while with Indianapolis by using him as a do-it-all 3rd down back. Miles Sanders saw his value fall even further than his initial draft season plummet after he lost red zone scoring opportunities that his rookie backup capitalized on. Gainwell looked like a fifth-round steal with a defined role that showed burst, receiving ability, and enough thump to punch it in for short-yardage. But notice how I’ve emphasized the good early start to the season.

The Bad

The second half of the season resulted in a shocking cliff dive that stayed in the gutter even after Sanders went on IR. Why the Eagles would rather rely on the shriveled husk of a career TD-dependent plodder formally known as Jordan Howard while they have a talented rookie remains unknown. Many young RBs have limited early usage while they learn pass protection but that would be speculation in this case. His rushing has been inefficient and didn’t top 3 YPG between Week 8 and Week 12. Then he’s back into his original role in Week 13 against the Jets. Who knows if he was just in the doghouse while there was a real chance at the playoffs. The situation doesn’t look any better coupled with his fifth-round draft capital.

The Ugly Truth 

Gainwell is a high-risk gamble without the draft stock to be confident the Eagles value him in the future. The inconsistency and unclear role makes it hard to want to overspend but the production we’ve received in limited action doesn’t make him cheap in relation to the likely second-round rookie draft stock you’d have to pay for him. He’s worth the roster stash for somebody. It’s just if you’re the manager who’s going to pay up for a potential future headache.

7 – Khalil Herbert, Chicago Bears

Regular Season Stats

Games Started: 2 | Games Played: 12 | PFF Grade: 82.1

Fantasy Scoring: Standard: 50 (RB55) | PPR: 60.4 (RB58)

Measurements: HT: 5’9” | WT: 210 | 40: 4.46 | Shuttle: 4.31 | Vert: 33 | Cone: 6.96  

Rushing: 94/389/1 | YPG: 32.4 | YPC: 4.14 | YAC: 162 | YBC: 227 | BrkTkl: 8 | RZ%: 15.1%

Snap Percentage: 33.6%

Receiving: 10/55/0 | RPG: 0.8 | YPG: 4.6 | YPC: 5.5 | YAC: 5.5

Target Percentage: 3.1%

The Good

Khalil Herbert has looked like a fantastic three-down running back deserving to carry his own team every time he touched the football. Herbert only had two official starts but straight up snatched the backup role away from Damien Williams after he and starter David Montgomery were down with an injury. The rookie sixth-round pick’s size, vision, burst, and modest receiving ability checks all the Bell Cow Boxes you want out of a running back and is one of the best handcuffs because of his ability and not just because of opportunity. 

The Bad

However, Herbert is still a backup behind a young and talented running back with much higher draft capital. Chicago is highly likely to bring in a new coaching staff that may not value a sixth-rounder and could be a regime-change casualty. The Bears have several holes to fill all the way from their offensive line to possibly their Head Coach so it’s more than likely that this team will look much different 

The Ugly Truth

Herbert is a low-risk/high-reward player that every David Montgomery owner needs to target this offseason. His job security is certainly a risk but that risk comes cheap enough to be worth it. Moreover, the injury increase this season should be a lesson that you can never have enough backup RBs stashed away. A rookie with Herbert’s talent can get you through an IR stint or can be lucrative dynasty currency for a player with higher long-term value. Talent alone will get him a starting gig sooner than later.

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Follow up on RBs 4-6 or argue against Travis Etienne’s ranking onTwitter @SportsJag!