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We have officially made it to the point in the year where dynasty, devy, and C2C drafts are in full swing. Jim (@jim_DFF) and I (@Evan_Kerr_) have been hard at work adjusting and tinkering with our devy rankings to make them a near-perfect product for all to utilize. Grinding film and digging into analytics has helped us to painstakingly rank over 300 players on their ability to make the jump to the next level.
The process has made us question ourselves in a number of ways, and even now that the rankings are updated, we find ourselves questioning where different players landed on the big board.
In this four-article series, we’ve decided to peel back the proverbial curtain and reveal some of what goes on within the mind of a devy ranker. Isolating one position for each article, we were each asked a series of four questions that forced us to decide which players we think are too high, which players we think are too low, a player that we just can’t seem to quit, and a deep sleeper we think more people need to be talking about.
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In this week’s episode of Always Be Scouting, @DffFrankPanthro and @John_mancuso5 cover mailbag questions and give their draft grades and opinions for each NFL team.Â
The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today.Â
This article covers the final post-NFL Draft analytical model rankings for the wide receiver position. These WR1 model rankings will be your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career.
You can find the running back RB1 model here.
For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges.
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In this episode of Always Be Scouting, @DffFrankPanthro and @Devy_Luigi of prodraftscouting.com discuss the 2026 rookie draft class and hop into a 3-Round Dynasty Rookie Mock draft.
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Controlling the Board: Building a Dynasty Startup Through Value, Flexibility, and Intent
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Best and Worst Picks in Dynasty Startup Drafts: Rounds 5-8
I’m bananas for Burden. This is about the area I like to start swinging for upside, and Luther Burden has it in droves. He finished his rookie year on a strong note and ended up with 652 receiving yards and two scores on 47 receptions. But it’s the underlying metrics that get me all hot and bothered: WR2 in target separation (2.62), WR3 in yards per route run (2.79), and WR4 in QB Rating per target (123.1). With D.J. Moore now in Buffalo, Burden is set to take on a larger role in Ben Johnson’s offense going into Year 2.Â
Fade: Quinshon Judkins (RB – CLE)
There’s a lot to like about Quinshon Judkins; I just wish he wasn’t in such a bad situation and coming off serious leg injuries. He broke his fibula and dislocated his ankle in his right leg late in December. That’s a tough thing to come back from, even at 22 years old. He’ll be fine eventually, but even before that, he only averaged 3.6 yards per carry behind a piss poor Cleveland offensive line. His 12.1 fantasy points per game were only good for RB25. Maybe in Round 6 or 7, I can talk myself into it. But in the fifth round, I want a rock-solid back I can feel good about. I don’t get that feeling with Judkins.
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Best and Worst Picks in Dynasty Startup Drafts: Rounds 1-4
Fresh off winning Offensive Player of the Year after a brilliant 2025 campaign, Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the perfect cornerstone to build your dynasty team around. He only recently turned 24 years old and has been as durable as they come, never missing a game in his three-year career thus far. With back-to-back seasons of over 100 catches, JSN is the focal point of Seattle’s offense and should continue to be for years to come. He’s an easy click in Round 1 if I have the chance to draft him.Â
Fade: Joe Burrow (QB – CIN)
Older than you might think, Joe Burrow will turn 30 before the 2026 season concludes. And while he’s not an immobile statue in the pocket, he really doesn’t add much fantasy production with his legs. For him to pay off first round draft capital, Joe Brrr needs to have extreme outlier seasons in the passing department. He’s capable of it — like in 2024 when he threw for 4,913 yards and 43 scores — but he’s also missed substantial time in three of his six pro seasons and remains an injury risk.Â
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Projecting Quarterback Success for Dynasty
I am trying to help us find ways to avoid the bust at quarterback, especially in rookie drafts. This is the cheapest most of these quarterbacks will ever be, but if you miss on one and spend a first-round pick on them, it could set you back even further.
I am looking at quarterbacks drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft and breaking them down into 4 tiers from 2015 to 2025.
I call the 1st tier the “green tier”. These are the quarterbacks who score a 90 or higher in my model and went to a Power 5 school. My model includes a film grade from Lance Zierlein, fantasy points per game in college, and their passing touchdowns-to-interceptions ratio.
There have been 37 quarterbacks drafted since 2015 in the first round, but only 13 ended up in tier 1, the green tier.
Below are the names of those 13 guys.
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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Brenen Thompson
In 2025, Thompson was third-team All-SEC. He set a Mississippi State single-season record with 1,054 receiving yards, was the first Mississippi State player to lead the SEC in receiving yards, and led the SEC in average depth per target. He was also a nominee for the Conerly Trophy (top player in Mississippi) and made the Biletnikoff Award Watch List. Thompson is projected as a 4th-round selection by NFL Mock Draft Database, and Lance Zierlein has a player comparison to J.J. Nelson.
STRENGTHS
Thompson is a smaller-built vertical threat who has an eye-popping 39.8 yards per touchdown catch. Seven of these ten career touchdowns have come on plays of 42 yards or more. Clearly, he’s a dynamic playmaker based on these statistics alone. His speed allows him to have easy wins over the top that require safety help in man coverage. Thompson shows a shifty release against press coverage and runs past cornerbacks before they can even turn and run. He adds an immediate vertical dimension that can loosen defenses.
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2026 NFL Draft Coverage: Robert Henry Jr.
Robert Henry Jr. signed with the Washington Commanders after going undrafted in the 2026 NFL Draft.Â
COLLEGE PRODUCTION
Robert Henry Jr. began his career at Jones College, a community college in Mississippi. He produced as a true freshman, but his breakout came in 2022 as a sophomore. That season, Henry rushed for over 1,300 yards and 18 touchdowns, earning first-team NJCAA All-American honors.Â
Following this noteworthy season, Henry transferred up to D1 football, playing for the Roadrunners of UTSA. He made the jump with no issues, rushing for 11 touchdowns in 2023. This past season was his best one for UTSA, surpassing 1,000 rushing yards and finding the endzone nine times on the ground. He was used minimally in the receiving game, but did have two receiving touchdowns in 2025.Â
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