Free-tured Articles
Sorry, we couldn't find any posts. Please try a different search.
Featured Articles (DFF Members Only)
After years of proven success with my WR1 Analytical Model outperforming NFL Draft Capital at predicting future fantasy success of rookie wide receiver prospects, I unveiled the RB1 Analytical Model last year. Similar to my long-running WR1 model, which you can find here, this RB1 model was developed using a recipe of the most predictive advanced college statistics that prior NFL fantasy superstars exhibited.
The goal of these analytical models is to outperform draft capital, as it should. After all, fantasy managers are trying to accumulate the most fantasy points. NFL teams are trying to win football games. For example, in 2024, Bucky Irving and Tyrone Tracy were drafted 6th and 12th in the NFL draft among running backs. The model ranked them 4th and 6th, respectively.
You can find last year’s 2025 RB1 post-draft published model here. Our model was largely in line with draft capital, with 7 of the first 8 players selected in the NFL draft also in the model’s top 7. A big outlier came a little later. Our model ranked Jacory Croskey-Merritt 11th overall, despite the NFL drafting him 26th among all running backs.
Now on to the 2026 class.
This 2026 running back draft class isn’t good. It isn’t bad. No. It is downright atrocious. In these model series, I can typically find 15 “draftable” running backs and wide receivers with ease. Last year, 26 running backs were drafted. This year, even with a terrible overall 2026 class, I don’t have 15 running backs with a “draft-worthy” grade.
You can find the rankings for players 15 to 11 here.
You can find the rankings for players 10 to 6 here.
5. Emmett Johnson, Nebraska | RB1 Model Score: 38.0
Based on historical comps, Emmett Johnson’s RB1 Model score of 38.0 gives him a 34.1% chance of having at least one top-24 fantasy season in his career.
Historical Players With Similar RB1 Model Scores:
The Good
Outside of Jeremiyah Love, Emmett Johnson seems the most likely to secure a role for an NFL team. Why? He is an excellent receiving back. He led all running backs in this class with 30.8 receiving yards per game and 3.8 receptions per game. This earned him 25 points towards his overall RB1 score.
To access the rest of this article, login or become a member.
Today, I’ll be walking you through my most recent dynasty startup draft that just wrapped up. If you know me or listen to the Always Be Scouting podcast, you know I’m always in a draft somewhere. This was my first dynasty startup of the year, and I wanted to break it down and walk through how I built this roster.
This is a 1QB, 16-team league, and the rookie draft is separate. The scoring setup matters a lot. Tight ends get a boost with 1.5 PPR, and first down points; wide receivers get full PPR, and running backs only get half. Passing touchdowns are also worth 7 points. So going in, I already knew wide receiver was going to be a big focus for me.
Draft Strategy / Team Build
I didn’t go in locked into one plan, but I knew I wanted to build around wide receivers and keep long-term value in mind. At the same time, I didn’t want to punt the season. I wanted a team that could compete now.
Quarterbacks
- Trevor Lawrence (5.7)
- Shedeur Sanders (13.7)
- Riley Leonard (17.7)
- Kenny Pickett (20.10)
In a 1QB league, I didn’t feel the need to force the position early. Lawrence ended up being my QB1, and I felt good getting him there. Lawrence had his best year under Liam Coen last year. I feel like he’s finally starting to live up to that #1 overall status from 2021. With passing touchdowns worth 7 points, that’s a solid value. After that, I waited and added depth. Sanders is more of a long-term bet, and Leonard and Pickett are just depth pieces.
Running Backs
- Ashton Jeanty (1.7)
- TreVeyon Henderson (3.7)
- Kyle Monangai (6.10)
- Kenneth Gainwell (8.10)
- Damien Martinez (16.10)
- Malik Davis (19.7)
- Xavier Scott (21.7)
I took Jeanty early to lock in a top option. That gave me a foundation at running back. Under new HC Kubiak, Jeanty is poised for a breakout year, especially with the Raiders addressing their QB situation with the Cousins signing, possibly drafting Mendoza with the #1 overall pick, and improving the O-line in the 2026 draft.
Henderson brings upside, but there’s some risk there. I think in 2026, we’ll see more of him in the backfield after coming off one of the most productive rookie seasons in a Josh McDaniels offense.
Kyle Monangai had an impressive rookie season and is pushing for more opportunities in 2026.
Make no mistake, Gainwell has shown he can still produce as part of a one-two punch. Now heading to Tampa Bay, he should continue to fill that passing-down role even with Bucky Irving there.
After that, I didn’t chase the position too hard. With only .5 PPR for RBs, I was fine adding depth and upside later instead of forcing picks.
Wide Receivers
To access the rest of this article, login or become a member.
We’ve made it, folks. The final edition of our Devy Rankings series has arrived. For those who have followed along this month, I appreciate your support, and I hope this content has helped you to prepare for your upcoming Devy startups and supplemental drafts this offseason. If you’ve missed any of the prior four articles, you can check those out below:
Quick reminder: These consensus ranks are based on a Superflex, Tight End Premium format, and are a snapshot of our rankings as of April 7, 2026. Evan and I update our Devy rankings year-round, which our subscribers can check out here. With that, let’s dive into our Top 10.
10. Bryce Underwood (QB – Michigan)
- Jim’s ranking: 24th
- Evan’s ranking: 2nd
- QB1 overall
Bryce Underwood slots in as the QB1 in our Devy consensus rankings, thanks to Evan’s ranking of 2nd overall amongst all positions. Underwood was the consensus QB1 of the 2025 freshmen class, with the size, speed, arm talent, and tools we rarely see at the high school level. He earned the starting job as a true freshman for the Wolverines, flashing some elite upside but struggling mightily with consistency. Underwood had five games with under 150 pass yards, including a 63-yard performance against Ohio State in Week 14. I’ve moved him down my ranks since this time last year, and would prefer Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele over him (marginally) in that draft class. Still, the upside case is the same, and with his athleticism and dual-threat ability, he could break fantasy if he hits.
9. Bryant Wesco (WR – Clemson)
- Jim’s ranking: 11th
- Evan’s ranking: 15th
- WR8 overall
After an excellent true freshman campaign in 2024, Wesco was off to an even better start in 2025, averaging 90 yards and one touchdown per game through six games. Unfortunately, he suffered a scary spinal injury against SMU in Week 8, sidelining him for the remainder of the season. Regarding back injuries, obvious concerns would be speed, mobility, and lateral quickness post-injury. With Wesco only being 20 years old, I’m hoping the recovery process is more streamlined, and he can return to the field with the same explosiveness we saw in his first two seasons. Reports say he’s been participating in spring drills and should be ready for the 2026 season.
To access the rest of this article,login or become a member.
In this week’s episode of the Always Be Scouting show, the DFF crew gets together for a […]
Just like that, we’ve made it to Part 4 of 5 in our Expert Devy Rankings series. If you missed any of the first three editions, you can view those by clicking any of the links below:
These consensus ranks are an average between me and @Evan_Kerr_, and are a snapshot as of April 7, 2026. As a reminder, all of these values are based on a Superflex, Tight End Premium league format. Time to see who came in at the 20th overall spot.
20. Dante Moore (QB – Oregon)
- Jim’s rank – 13th
- Evan’s rank – 25th
- QB7 overall
Dante Moore is headed back to Eugene for one final season after a surprising decision not to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. I know he’ll be earning a lucrative NIL deal this coming season, but he seemingly passed up on a guaranteed $50 million, assuming he would have gone 2nd overall to the Jets or 3rd overall to the Cardinals.
He now puts himself in a difficult spot, where the 2027 class has the potential to be absolutely loaded at the quarterback position. Still, Moore displays several NFL-level traits, including accuracy to all three levels, a quick release, and the ability to feel pressure in the pocket and adjust. His lack of rushing upside limits his fantasy ceiling, but it feels likely he’ll at least get a shot to prove he’s starting material in the NFL.
19. Justice Haynes (RB – Georgia Tech)
- Jim’s rank – 10th
- Evan’s rank – 27th
- RB3 overall
Another prospect who shocked us by electing to stay in the college ranks is Justice Haynes, who recently transferred from Michigan to Georgia State. Similar to Moore, this decision was a head-scratcher, given the lack of talent at his position in this draft class.
Haynes was off to a blazing start in the 2025 season, surpassing 100 rush yards and finding the endzone in six of seven contests. He was averaging a robust 7.1 yards per attempt (YPA) and a 50% breakaway rate before suffering a foot injury that sidelined him for the remainder of the season. Haynes underwent tightrope surgery and is reportedly ready for spring ball now. I’m eager to see how this Georgia Tech offense looks without Haynes King. It appears Fernando’s little brother, Alberto Mendoza, will be under center in 2026 for the Yellow Jackets. I’m hoping Haynes can expand his role as a pass catcher, with only 30 career receptions to his name.
18. Chris Henry Jr. (WR – Ohio State)
- Jim’s rank – 20th
- Evan’s rank – 17th
- WR10 overall
Chris Henry Jr. comes in as our Devy WR10 overall and my WR1 of the freshman class. He heads to “Wide Receiver U” where he’ll have an opportunity to make an immediate impact and learn from Jeremiah Smith, arguably the greatest college wide receiver prospect we’ve ever seen.
Henry is a natural athlete with a fluid running motion, almost gliding across the field at times. At 6’5” and 210 pounds, he’s a massive guy who projects to be purely a boundary receiver at the NFL level. He shows excellent burst and acceleration, and strong, confident hands at the catch point. And if you think the name sounds familiar, yes, Henry Jr. is the son of
To access the rest of this article, login or become a member.
Trending
DFF Expert Devy Rankings 20-11
Just like that, we’ve made it to Part 4 of 5 in our Expert Devy Rankings series. If you missed any of the first three editions, you can view those by clicking any of the links below:
These consensus ranks are an average between me and @Evan_Kerr_, and are a snapshot as of April 7, 2026. As a reminder, all of these values are based on a Superflex, Tight End Premium league format. Time to see who came in at the 20th overall spot.
20. Dante Moore (QB – Oregon)
- Jim’s rank – 13th
- Evan’s rank – 25th
- QB7 overall
Dante Moore is headed back to Eugene for one final season after a surprising decision not to declare for the 2026 NFL Draft. I know he’ll be earning a lucrative NIL deal this coming season, but he seemingly passed up on a guaranteed $50 million, assuming he would have gone 2nd overall to the Jets or 3rd overall to the Cardinals.
He now puts himself in a difficult spot, where the 2027 class has the potential to be absolutely loaded at the quarterback position. Still, Moore displays several NFL-level traits, including accuracy to all three levels, a quick release, and the ability to feel pressure in the pocket and adjust. His lack of rushing upside limits his fantasy ceiling, but it feels likely he’ll at least get a shot to prove he’s starting material in the NFL.
19. Justice Haynes (RB – Georgia Tech)
- Jim’s rank – 10th
- Evan’s rank – 27th
- RB3 overall
Another prospect who shocked us by electing to stay in the college ranks is Justice Haynes, who recently transferred from Michigan to Georgia State. Similar to Moore, this decision was a head-scratcher, given the lack of talent at his position in this draft class.
Haynes was off to a blazing start in the 2025 season, surpassing 100 rush yards and finding the endzone in six of seven contests. He was averaging a robust 7.1 yards per attempt (YPA) and a 50% breakaway rate before suffering a foot injury that sidelined him for the remainder of the season. Haynes underwent tightrope surgery and is reportedly ready for spring ball now. I’m eager to see how this Georgia Tech offense looks without Haynes King. It appears Fernando’s little brother, Alberto Mendoza, will be under center in 2026 for the Yellow Jackets. I’m hoping Haynes can expand his role as a pass catcher, with only 30 career receptions to his name.
18. Chris Henry Jr. (WR – Ohio State)
- Jim’s rank – 20th
- Evan’s rank – 17th
- WR10 overall
Chris Henry Jr. comes in as our Devy WR10 overall and my WR1 of the freshman class. He heads to “Wide Receiver U” where he’ll have an opportunity to make an immediate impact and learn from Jeremiah Smith, arguably the greatest college wide receiver prospect we’ve ever seen.
Henry is a natural athlete with a fluid running motion, almost gliding across the field at times. At 6’5” and 210 pounds, he’s a massive guy who projects to be purely a boundary receiver at the NFL level. He shows excellent burst and acceleration, and strong, confident hands at the catch point. And if you think the name sounds familiar, yes, Henry Jr. is the son of
To access the rest of this article, login or become a member.
Projecting Top Fantasy QBs for 2026
In this article, I’ll be reviewing data from the past four seasons to predict the next top 12 fantasy football quarterbacks. I started by analyzing the top 12 quarterbacks by points per game in each season for the past 4 seasons, identifying a total of 26 players.
Next, I focused on quarterbacks who achieved multiple top 12 seasons — not just one-hit wonders. This narrowed the list to 15 total quarterbacks.
| Josh Allen | Patrick Mahomes | Brock Purdy | Jalen Hurts |
| Lamar Jackson | Dak Prescott | Trevor Lawrence | Bo Nix |
| Daniel Jones | Joe Burrow | Baker Mayfield | Jared Goff |
| Kyler Murray | Jordan Love | Tua Tagovailoa |
These are the 15 guys I will be looking at closely in this article.
-
- 15/15 averaged more than 23 PPR in their best college season
- 15/15 threw for more than 5000 yards in their college career
- 15/15 threw for more than 40 touchdowns in their college career
- 14/15 passed for more than 175 yards a game (Hurts)
- 14/15 rushed for more than 10 yards a game (Goff)
- 14/15 averaged more than 20 PPR a game in their college career (Love)
- 14/15 had more than 2 touchdowns to interceptions ratio (Jones)
- 14/15 had more than 300 rushing yards in college (Goff)
.
2026 Rookie WR1 Analytical Model, Version 1.0: Rankings 5 to 1
The Prospect Analytical Model Rankings are one of our members’ favorite series each year at Dynasty Football Factory. Years of refining and enhancing the models to accurately predict future fantasy value have brought us to today. These WR1 model rankings are your ultimate guide to predicting which prospects will produce the most fantasy points in their NFL career. You can find the wide receivers ranked 15 to 11 in the WR1 model here. You can find the wide receivers ranked 10 to 6 here. You can find the running back RB1 model here. For those new to the WR1 rating, it is a proprietary formula I developed in 2019 that provides a data-driven forecast of future fantasy production for incoming rookie wide receivers. There are many advanced metrics available today; we at DFF know it can be difficult to determine which ones matter and how much each matters. The WR1 model distills all that hard work into a single, easy-to-understand number. The model evaluates rookies across 13 of the most predictive metrics and combines their individual metric scores into a total WR1 rating. It was a pioneer in the fantasy analysis industry, being the first to incorporate a film-grade into the model. The goal is to provide an easy-to-use score for those who don’t want to spend hundreds of hours dissecting different metrics. Based on the prospect’s model score, I provide their probability of achieving at least one top-24 NFL Fantasy Points Per Game Season, using historical prospects with similar score ranges. The WR1 model consistently outperforms NFL draft capital […]
2026 DFF Dynasty Rookie Draft Guide V1.0
2026 DFF Expert Devy Rankings 30-21
We’ve made it to Part 3 of our five-part Devy rankings series, covering our Top 50 consensus Devy prospects as we head into the 2026 college football season. If you missed the first two editions of this series, you can check them out below:
These rankings are based on Superflex and Tight End Premium scoring settings, and are a snapshot of our consensus ranks as of April 7, 2026. Let’s take a look at who came in at number 30!
30. Jayce Brown (WR – LSU)
- Jim’s ranking – 38th
- Evan’s ranking – 23rd
- WR12 overall
Jayce Brown is headed to Baton Rouge after three productive seasons at Kansas State, where he compiled nearly 2,000 receiving yards and 13 total touchdowns. He’s a versatile weapon who can play X, Z, or slot, and has the burst and long speed to take the top off of defenses. He was frequently utilized as a deep threat for the Wildcats, with a career aDOT of 14.0 and 17.1 yards per reception (Y/REC). Brown is a smooth route runner, and his athleticism makes him a highlight reel waiting to happen. The biggest concerns here are size, physicality, and consistency. Brown is listed at around 180 lbs and has 14 career drops, for a drop rate of 10.9%. He needs to clean up the concentration drops to establish himself as a top-tier wide receiver in the 2027 class.
29. Ousmane Kromah (RB – Florida State)
- Jim’s ranking – 28th
- Evan’s ranking – 28th
- RB8 overall
Ousmane is coming off a fairly underwhelming true freshman campaign for the Seminoles, relative to expectations. Kromah was (and still is) my RB1 in the 2025 freshmen class, with tons of elite traits evident on his high school tape. I assumed he would be the Day 1 starter for Florida State, but he was stuck behind Gavin Sawchuk on the depth chart. Kromah was efficient per rush, but saw just 72 attempts all season. He now heads into 2026 competing for touches alongside Texas transfer Tre Wisner, who projects to be the 1A in this backfield. As you can see, Evan and I are still very much “in” on Kromah for Devy purposes, but have to consider the possibility he isn’t quite the prospect we thought he would be.
To access the rest of this article,login or become a member.
Finding 2026 Fantasy RB1 Value Before the Draft
In this article, I’ll be reviewing data from the past four seasons to predict the next top 12 fantasy football running backs. I started by analyzing the top 24 running backs by points per game in each season, identifying a total of 49 players. Next, I focused on running backs who achieved multiple top 24 seasons — not just one-hit wonders. This narrowed the list to 26 total running backs. Lastly, I wanted to break it down one more time to get only the elite running backs. So I broke the list down into guys who had multiple top 12 finishes in points per game over the last four seasons and came up with a list of 15 guys. Saquon Barkley Derrick Henry Jahmyr Gibbs Joe Mixon Christian McCaffrey Bijan Robinson Kyren Williams De’Von Achane Breece Hall James Conner Alvin Kamara James Cook Josh Jacobs Jonathan Taylor Aaron Jones These are the 15 guys I will be looking at closely in this article. 15/15 averaged more than 5.0 yards per carry. 14/15 were Power 5 running backs (not Aaron Jones). 14/15 were graded 6.0 or higher for NFL.com grades (not James Conner). 13/15 were drafted in the top 3 rounds (not Aaron Jones or Kyren Williams). 13/15 had more than 30 career catches in college (not Derrick Henry or James Conner). 13/15 had more than .7 touchdowns per game (not James Cook or Josh Jacobs). 13/15 had more than 16 fantasy points per game (not James Cook or Josh Jacobs). 12/15 had more than 95 yards per game (not James […]
2026 DFF Expert Devy Rankings 40-31
The Devy rankings series rolls on! This time, we’re covering the prospects ranked 40-31 in our consensus ranks. As a quick reminder, these are an average of my own and @Evan_Kerr_’s rankings, and are a snapshot of our list as of April 7, 2026. Our Devy rankings are updated year-round, and members can access the full list of 200+ prospects by clicking here. We also offer Dynasty and Campus 2 Canton rankings, helping you build championship rosters for all league formats. If you missed my prior article covering the players ranked 50-41, you can click here to read it. For reference, our rankings are based on Superflex and Tight End Premium settings. Let’s take a look at who came in at number 40. 40. Waymond Jordan (RB – USC) Jim’s ranking – 44th Evan’s ranking – 39th RB11 overall Waymond Jordan started his career at a JUCO in 2023, breaking out as a sophomore and winning Offensive Player of the Year in 2024. That season, he rushed for over 1,600 yards and 20 touchdowns for Hutchinson Community College in Kansas, averaging a robust 7.4 yards per attempt (YPA). He made the jump to the Power 4 in 2025, playing for the USC Trojans, where he quickly found success, but missed the second half of the year with an ankle injury. It was a small sample size (88 rush attempts), but Jordan put up some incredible per-rush numbers in 2025, averaging 6.5 YPA and 5.15 yards after contact per attempt (YCO/A). The most impressive number was his 33% juke rate, forcing […]
Episode 10: Always Be Scouting Origin Story + Mailbag 2.0 + Dynasty, Devy & C2C Talk with MG
In this week’s episode of Always […]
Is Eli Stowers the Best Tight End in the 2026 Dynasty Rookie Class?
Eli Stowers is a high-upside fantasy prospect and should be considered the premier receiving tight end in the 2026 rookie class, with borderline TE1 potential. His value stems from “WR-type” athleticism: a 4.51 40-yard dash and an all-time NFL Combine record for tight ends with a 45.5-inch vertical jump. Stowers now owns that record, and it wasn’t close. He didn’t just break it, he shattered it.
Whatever team selects him in the 2026 NFL Draft will likely deploy him as an explosive “move” TE or big slot option, with a projected landing spot in the second round. He did line up and play WR at times in college. Now, I know the NFL isn’t college, but that nugget alone speaks for itself. Ask yourself: What other tight end can say that?
The Con
Stowers isn’t a George Kittle type who’ll get it done in the trenches. He profiles more like Travis Kelce, Tyler Warren, or Brock Bowers: below-average blockers, or perhaps worse. But all of them are legitimate receiving tight ends, and nobody questions their fantasy value.
The Pro
No team drafting Stowers is taking him for his blocking. That’s exactly what creates the discount in your rookie drafts, and make no mistake, he’ll be drafted with the intent of being a lethal weapon. Organizations don’t spend Day 2 capital on someone they view as a JAG. As long as Stowers is designated as a TE and not a WR, we’re essentially looking at
