If you missed the quarterback article, you can find that here: https://dynastyfootballfactory.com/offseason-preview-quarterback/
The Dynasty offseason has officially begun, and if you are like me, you have been sending and receiving trades to try and scratch that itch of no football for several months. Who should we be trading for though is the question. Today we will take a look at the running back market as a whole similarly to how we did the quarterback position.
We have to tackle the running back position a little differently though. With quarterback, each team only has one starter going into the season. With running back, things are a little more nuanced. You can have teams with multiple fantasy-relevant running backs like the Detroit Lions. There are also more opportunities for spot starts with running backs than there are with quarterbacks. To simplify the problem, we will look at running back from a 1st/2nd down back perspective and a 3rd down/passing down back.
Teams needing a between-the-tackles back
- Ravens
- Browns
- Bengals (assuming Mixon is cut)
- Raiders
- Chargers
- Cowboys
- Eagles
- Giants
We also need to consider teams that could replace their current starter. Some of these are more likely than others to see their lead back replaced.
- Texans
- Commanders
- Titans
- Bears
- Vikings
- Panthers
- Buccaneers
- Rams
- Cardinals
I know that Kyren Williams is a Dynasty darling right now, and I love his ability, but there is a small risk the Rams could draft someone or pick up someone in free agency who has a bit more juice than Williams. We also have backfields like the Bears and Titans that have a guy we like, but if the team drafted someone to compete for the job, the current back would take a hit to their value.
We also need to consider secondary backs, which could be a 3rd down back or even just a guy to spell the current guy.
Openings for 3rd down backs
- Ravens
- Texans
- Colts
- Chiefs
- Raiders
- Chargers
- Cowboys
- Commanders
- Giants
- Vikings
- Bears
- Falcons
- Panthers
Openings for rotational backs
- Bills
- Patriots
- Jets
- Chiefs
- Packers
- Falcons
- Saints
With quarterback, we could easily count the number of openings and number of free agents and find the line of who is likely a starter and who is not. With running back, that exercise can be extremely cumbersome to take on when you consider that different running backs fill different roles on different teams. The distribution of the running back position is also tremendously uneven so it is very unlikely to have the 32 best running backs on each of the 32 NFL teams. Because of this, at least once per offseason, we have a running back have his value crushed due to a new running back added to his running back room. So all of these running backs will carry some amount of risk with them, but it is baked into the position of running back quite a bit as it is. Let’s look and see the free-agent running back options. I won’t bother mentioning running backs that could be traded, because realistically speaking, almost any running back could be a trade candidate.
Tier One
I am a bit worried about putting Henry up in this group with these guys, but perhaps the right landing spot could revitalize his career. I have mixed opinions on trading for these guys as they carry quite a bit of uncertainty but do not carry the discount of some of the lower-tier guys. If you are a contender with a late 2024 1st who could use a bit more punch at running back, I don’t mind trading a late first for Jacobs or Barkley, but only with specific roster constructions.
Tier Two
This group is significantly cheaper to acquire, and I like them a lot more for that reason. These guys can easily be acquired for late 2nds or middle-of-the-road WRs. I love this strategy as the WR market could be much more volatile this offseason with the WR talent we have in the 2024 rookie draft class. Trading away guys like Jerry Jeudy, DeAndre Hopkins, George Pickens, Marquise Brown, and Christian Kirk before all the young blood overtakes them on rankings and their Dynasty value begins to dip due to their ranking at their position. There is reasonable RB2 and maybe even RB1 upside with the right landing spots with these guys, and they can be had for WR3/4 prices.
Tier Three
Things get a little tighter for these guys. If we look at those first two lists of teams I put on there, and we map all our free agent running backs from the first two tiers and then give three rookie running backs a starting job. We end up with all these guys as a rotational back or competing for a job against an incumbent starter. The landing spot will be huge for these guys. If Zack Moss were to end up in Minnesota, we would feel really good about his chances. If he were to land with the Jets, he would likely be seeing 12 touches at most per game. So there is a bunch of risk with these guys, but they could also be acquired for cheap. These are great pieces to attack on teams with a replacement owner. Most of the time the first thing someone does with an orphan is blow it all up (even if it is incorrect to do so). They will often be looking to sell pieces like this for any piece of longer-term assets. Send late 3rds for these guys for some upside for a very minimal cost on your contending teams.
Third Down Backs
I did have to find a place for these guys, but I will level with y’all—I have no desire to roster any of them. If your league is not super deep, these guys are likely available on your waiver wire. I would trade them for FAAB and a bag of lay potato chips just to open a roster spot. There are plenty of teams that could go after a guy like this, but they could also just draft a guy or maybe even have a previous year’s draft pick to step up into that role.
Tier Four
I could probably split this into two tiers, but I see them all just below the line of fantasy relevance next year. This group feels like depth, special teams, <30% workload committee back, replaced by a rookie in August, etc. If they are free from either waivers or as a throw-in on a trade, then by all means throw them on your bench and see what happens, but do not use real assets going after these guys. There is a chance that at least one of them ends up in a backfield with nobody else worth mentioning but the juice does not feel worth the squeeze.
Closing Thoughts
I normally am not interested in trading for running backs right before the draft season, but I think you can be pretty safe this year. Just make sure you are going after the right guys for the right price. These are great pieces to go after when someone decides to blow it up this offseason as you can get a huge discount on guys that are already pretty cheap in the market right now. Good luck and happy trading.
Thanks so much for reading. If you want to discuss more, you can reach me on Twitter @DougHarrelson. Also, don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, DFS, Sports Betting, Devy, and IDP. Annual subscribers also get access to our discord server, where you can talk to our entire staff!
