After the holidays, there is a transition time for Dynasty leagues. The pressure to win now is relieved, but draft boards aren’t developed enough to know exactly who you should be getting at any picks past the first few. Before we get to the draft though, we have free agency, and on top of free agency, we have the trade market. Over the next few weeks, I will be taking us through the different position groups and discussing which players may have a bump in value or be able to produce some fantasy points in the fall. Players like Baker Mayfield, Devin Singletary, and Adam Thielen were extremely helpful depth for a lot of teams in the past season, and all were extremely cheap at one point during the last offseason. Some of these guys will go for below their already cheap market value just because the other owner wants to get them off of their roster.
This week we will be looking at the quarterback position. Most of this discussion will really only apply to Superflex leagues for this edition, as most of these guys do not move the needle in a 1QB league. Let’s take a look at realistic openings at the QB position.
Here are some teams that realistically could make a change to starting quarterback.
- New England Patriots
- Pittsburgh Steelers
- Denver Broncos
- Las Vegas Raiders
- Washington Commanders
- New York Giants
- Chicago Bears
- Minnesota Vikings
- Atlanta Falcons
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers
- New Orleans Saints
We have a couple of teams that could draft a QB but likely with a redshirt year incoming thanks to an incumbent veteran starter.
- New York Jets
- Seattle Seahawks
- Los Angeles Rams
So we have 11 true potential openings that could be available. This also assumes that current starters are available on the market should anyone want them. After some discussion with the Devy guys, we are estimating that about seven quarterbacks are likely to be drafted as the team’s long-term plan at quarterback. We say this with the anticipation of 3/7 being day one starters with 4/7 being behind a veteran to start the season. With how well Jordan Love is playing right now, there may be more teams willing to give the process of sitting a quarterback for a year at least to learn. So we have about eight spots open for a vet to start in week one with four of those likely being for the whole season. So now let’s look at the players that could be available.
Introducing your 2024 free-agent quarterback class.
- Kirk Cousins
- Ryan Tannehill
- Marcus Mariota
- Sam Darnold
- Jameis Winston
- Baker Mayfield
- Drew Lock
- Gardner Minshew
- Jake Browning
- Joshua Dobbs
Some killer names are here, but we also have some names that could be available in the trade market. For the sake of bookkeeping and counting purposes, we also need to list guys who could get replaced in the draft in the offseason like Daniel Jones and Derek Carr.
- Russell Wilson
- Justin Fields
- Kenny Pickett
- Mason Rudolph
- Jimmy Garoppolo
- Daniel Jones
- Derek Carr
- Zach Wilson
For an initial look at the landscape, let’s just assume the Jets, Seahawks, and Rams do not draft one of those rookie quarterbacks this year. For each one of them that does though, it likely opens up another spot for one of these veteran quarterbacks. This only leaves about four jobs in the league that a vet will acquire and does not have a rookie in the QB room ready to take his job. We don’t know where those jobs will be necessarily but there are some reasonable guesses like Denver, Minnesota, and Pittsburgh. There is always the possibility of a major surprise where a team we do not anticipate drafting a quarterback does so, but this will be our baseline.
Tier One:
This is the group of players most likely to end up with a team like Denver or Pittsburgh that doesn’t want to mess around developing a rookie with the roster already in place. One of them is leaving Denver, but you get the point. These are also the guys I suspect will occupy the jobs that do not come with a rookie quarterback behind them. There is always a chance a team doubles down on the quarterback position with a vet to start now and a rookie for the future. These guys are your safer assets of the QB carousel. They likely aren’t available for too cheap, but you are not super likely to get burned by acquiring them. The kind of teams that want to acquire players in this group are teams without a QB3 or with an average option at QB2. It’s a lower-risk way of adding some slight upside and/or depth to a QB room on your Superflex team. The highest upside here is without a doubt Justin Fields. He may still be in Chicago but he could also end up elsewhere.
Tier Two:
These guys have a lot more risk involved with them. Some may end up backups to a team we haven’t even mentioned here, and some may go to a team as the apparent starter in March just for that team to take a QB in May that wins the job in August. All of these players have much shakier situations but do not carry the starting quarterback price tag at this time in Superflex leagues. This was the tier you could have found a guy like Baker Mayfield in last season. I like attacking this tier for all types of rosters. You can sometimes nab a small sell window post-free agency but pre-draft. I would be hesitant to hold them through the draft as the value can plummet fast. You gotta have the soul read on an organization and if they are going to draft a quarterback. If they do, how likely are they to beat out the veteran? The Derek Carr and Daniel Jones scenarios are a bit different as they may not get traded, but they may be replaced in the draft.
Tier Three:
These are the guys that I believe may have a starting job for just a moment when they are acquired but likely will not be a week one starter next season. I am not going out of my way to acquire these guys. If I do roster them, I am monitoring everything that happens in the offseason. If they happen to sign somewhere with a clear path before the draft, I’m moving them as quickly as I can. Some of these guys may also sign somewhere as a backup, and in deeper leagues will be worth holding if you never get a good sell window. I want to acquire these guys from waivers or as throw-ins on other trades.
Closing Thoughts:
In recent years I have been more optimistic about quarterbacks changing teams, but the upcoming draft class gives me some concern so I think this is not the best year for going after these kinds of quarterbacks. If you are lacking at the position and don’t have the draft capital to address it in your rookie draft, this is likely where you will be looking. I advise attacking tier one if it is for roster considerations and tier two if your goal is to buy and flip over the offseason or give your QB room some slight upside. The tier three guys should be avoided unless the price tag is low enough thanks to someone wanting to open up a roster spot.
Thanks so much for reading. If you want to discuss more, you can reach me on Twitter @DougHarrelson. Also, don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, DFS, Sports Betting, Devy, and IDP. Annual subscribers also get access to our discord server, where you can talk to our entire staff!
