Welcome to part two of my weekly publication!
As always, part one of this publication is my weekly picks against the spread, with a deep dive into three picks that I feel will provide a nice payout to bettors. In part two, I look at three player props that I feel have a strong chance of paying out. This article will run the gamut and will include bets such as ‘passing yard totals’, ‘first player to score’, and even ‘total tackles’ for those who love defense.
In addition, I will also make one “Longshot Pick of the Week”. This pick will always feature a more difficult bet that has a greater than 2:1 payout. The odds may be tougher, but if you’re into some fun player props take a peek!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
With that, let’s get started!
Recap of Week 1
Well… I’m not sure anyone saw that coming. It’s a shame I based a majority of my player props on a game that, much like the rest of 2020, did not go according to plan. All credit to Minshew and the “tanking” Jags for a well-earned victory. At least D.K. Metcalf came through for us.
We’ll look to get back on track this week with three new player props. This time, we’ll select from three separate games to diversify just a bit.
Last Week: 1-2
Overall: 1-2
Longshot: 0-1
Ryan Tannehill: Under 222.5 Passing Yards (-112)
Wait…what? You’re going for it again?!
Yes, we’re doubling down on the Jags narrative. More accurately, we’re doubling down on the Titans narrative.
Tannehill threw the ball an impressive 43 times against the Broncos on Monday night. Yet, he still only managed to pass for 249 yards. This offense already ran through Derrick Henry, but with top receiver A.J. Brown officially ruled out this Sunday, Tannehill’s receiving options are even more limited. Even if the Jaguars keep this close, I imagine the Titans will continue to lean on their run game, as demonstrated by the 31 attempts they gave Derrick Henry last week.
Devin Singletary: Over 2.5 Receptions (+110)
The Patriots took down the Dolphins pretty easily last week, but lost in that defeat was the fact that Cam Newton was held to 15 of 19 passing for a measly 155 yards. There are some “chicken or the egg” arguments to be made, but for at least one week the Miami secondary performed as advertised on the stat sheet.
However, with Byron Jones’ and Xavien Howard’s attention turned towards Buffalo’s receivers, Josh Allen may have more of an inclination to target his underneath guys. And that’s saying something since last week Josh Allen targeted his running backs on nearly a quarter (11/46) of his pass attempts! Singletary produced five receptions on his seven targets.
Sean McDermott has already said he would like to get his running backs more involved in the game plan. While Singletary may lose some more work to rookie Zack Moss, it stands to reason that he can clear this low total. I would take this line without hesitation.
Miles Sanders: Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-112)
I have written about my thoughts on the Eagles and their offensive line ad nauseam. They were tossed around by Washington’s front seven last week, and this week they get to face the man who did this to Zack Martin (and two others).
Aaron Donald and the rest of the Rams’ defensive line should be living in the Eagles’ backfield on Sunday. Miles Sanders is coming off an injury and will be going into his first live-game action in nearly eight months. There are just too many risk factors for me to believe that he will have a good game. Take the under.
Week 2 Longshot Pick
Tre’Davious White: Over .5 Interceptions (+305)
It’s never safe to bet on interceptions, unless maybe when you’re going against Ryan Fitzpatrick. Fitzpatrick threw three interceptions last week against the Patriots. Two went to cornerbacks Stephon Gilmore and J.C. Jackson. The other went to safety/linebacker Adrian Phillips.
It’s a safe bet that Fitzmagic throws at least one more this week. In fact, he is a heavy favorite to throw an interception this game at -220. For reference, those are about the same odds placed for the Bills to beat the Dolphins, ouch. Double whammy.
Fitzpatrick has gone on the record doubling down on his gunslinger mentality. Look for him to push the ball against an aggressive Buffalo defense that is looking to make a statement in the AFC East.
For more from Stephen, check out his archive and follow him @DFF_Biscuits.
