For those of you checking us out for the first time, I’m @DFF_Biscuits. My role at Dynasty Football Factory is to embrace our inner degenerate by covering all things sportsbook related. Each week I’ll be writing two pieces; one will be my weekly picks against the spread. The second article will focus on specific player props.
For the ATS (against the spread) articles, I will provide analysis on three bets that I feel have the best chance at netting you a nice payday. Whether it be due to matchups, injuries, or other factors, these are the three bets I feel the most confident in placing. I will also make predictions on the rest of the week’s spreads.
To keep myself accountable, I’ll be keeping track of my wins and losses on the three bets I provide analysis on. These predictions are more “gut feel”, but you should still feel free to use them to help you place your wagers!
Betting lines were provided by DraftKings Sportsbook. Deposit $20 into DraftKings today and receive not only a FREE DFF Membership but also $10 in extra DraftKings credit! It’s a no brainer!
I’m so excited to be back covering another season! Let’s get started.
Week 1 Recap
So the Jaguars… aren’t… tanking?
Welcome to sports betting, where a team that has jettisoned off all of its talent somehow overcomes all odds to beat a team that went all-in on 2020. I’m sure I’m not the only one that got burned by Minshew Magic if my survivor pools are any indication. But, it still doesn’t take the sting out of it.
At least we had a nice rebound with Washington pulling off the upset over a banged-up Eagles team. They’re not done yet, with defensive end Vinny Curry also suffering a significant injury. This will be a year to forget for Philadelphia.
Overall we went 9-7-0, which isn’t the best but certainly not the worst. We will try to build on that this week.
Even more importantly, Biscuits is 1-0 to start the new year! Make sure you follow along for her weekly picks.
In-depth picks: 1-2-0 but a great ML win at +225!
Overall: 9-7-0
Rams (-1.5) at Eagles
The Eagles gave up a 17 point lead and lost to PFF’s 31st ranked offense largely due to injuries along their offensive line. This week, they face a much more potent Rams offense and, of course, the one-man wrecking crew Aaron Donald. Dak Prescott was under pressure on the second-most dropbacks last week, and that’s with Tyron Smith and Zack Martin at his disposal. This one may get ugly quickly.
49ers (-7) at Jets
Well, if the Jaguars aren’t tanking, someone has to, right?
The Jets are awful. Fire their head coach mid-season awful. And that was before injuries to key contributors Le’Veon Bell and Blake Cashman. I don’t particularly care about the knocks against Bell and his play, the fact of the matter is the Jets are running out of able bodies. The 49’ers lost to Arizona, sure, but Arizona’s recent additions make them a much stronger team than Gang Green. The 49’ers should come in pissed off and ready to send Gase out the door.
Lions at Packers (-6)
After all the talk about the Packers embracing the run-game this offseason, Aaron Rodgers absolutely shredded a rebuilding Minnesota secondary through the air, finishing 32-of-44 for 364 yards, four touchdowns, and zero interceptions. Wow.
The Lions, meanwhile, lost a heartbreaker to Chicago. What many might not know is they also lost their top two corners in that contest in Justin Coleman and Desmond Trufant. Star rookie Jeff Okudah is also dealing with a hamstring injury and his status for next week’s contest is unknown. Expect some more fireworks from Rodgers en route to another NFC North victory.
The Rest…
You can find all the NFL game odds right here, and my picks in bold below.
Bengals at Browns (-6)
Bills (-5.5) at Dolphins
Vikings at Colts (-3)
Broncos at Steelers (-7.5)
Jaguars at Titans (-9)
Panthers at Buccaneers (-9.5)
Falcons (+5.5) at Cowboys
Washington at Cardinals (-6.5)
Chiefs (-8.5) at Chargers
Ravens (-7) at Texans
Patriots at Seahawks (-4.5)
Saints (-6.5) at Raiders
Disagree with my picks? Have any more information that I should be looking at? Feel free to DM me on Twitter at @DFF_Biscuits!
For more from Stephen, check out his archive.
