Matt Breida to the Dolphins

In my previous offseason reaction articles, I’ve looked at a variety of offseason moves and how they relate to dynasty formats. The full list of links is at the bottom of the article. This time, I’m taking a deep dive into Matt Breida and how his recent trade to the Dolphins affects their backfield. Also, I’ll take a quick look back at the 49ers’ backfield and what’s left behind after Breida’s departure.

Breida’s Career

Here’s Breida’s career snapshot. Fantasy numbers are for PPR scoring.

Breida’s career began in 2017 when the 49ers signed him as an undrafted free agent. Breida immediately beat out fourth-round pick Joe Williams for the backup running back spot behind starter Carlos Hyde. Breida took about a third of the carries in 2017, with 105 attempts to Hyde’s 240. However, he averaged a nice 4.4 YPC and caught 21 passes for 180 yards in his change-of-pace role.

Going into 2018, the 49ers decided to let Hyde walk in free agency. However, they then decided to sign Jerick McKinnon to a 4-year, $30 million contract to become their workhorse back. Breida, therefore, returned to the backup role. Unfortunately for McKinnon, he suffered a torn ACL on the eve of the season. The 49ers then decided to sign veteran Alfred Morris to split work with Breida in a committee.

In 2018, Breida led the backfield in carries. Even without starting quarterback Jimmy Garoppolo, who missed most of the season with an injury, Breida still shined in the mediocre 49ers’ offense. He averaged 5.3 YPC and caught 27 of his 31 targets for 261 yards and two touchdowns. After 2018, most thought that Breida had proved himself and earned a clear role as the starter for the 49ers.

However, before 2019, the 49ers decided to further muddy the backfield waters by signing Tevin Coleman to a 2-year, $10 million contract. Coleman reunited with head coach Kyle Shanahan, who had coached him as the offensive coordinator for the Atlanta Falcons. For 2019, the 49ers planned to use a three-headed backfield of Coleman, Breida, and McKinnon, who was returning from his torn ACL.

Once again, though, McKinnon suffered an injury, and the 49ers placed him on injured reserve before the season. Therefore, the 49ers decided to use just Breida and Coleman in a two-way committee for the first half of the season. Eventually, though, Breida ended up in the doghouse and lost carries to breakout running back, Raheem Mostert. Mostert and Coleman split work down the stretch and in the playoffs, with Breida just getting spot duty.

Dolphins’ Backfield in 2020 and Beyond

During the 2020 NFL Draft, the 49ers decided to trade Breida to the Dolphins in exchange for a fifth-round pick. With Coleman, Mostert, and McKinnon still in the backfield, they decided that they could afford to move on from Breida. As for the Dolphins, they felt that investing in Breida at a low cost was reasonable, especially considering that Breida is only 25 years old. Also, Breida is due only $3.259 million in 2020 on his restricted free agent tender, so the contract is reasonable for the Dolphins.

Going into 2020, Breida joins a relatively empty backfield. In 2019, five running backs received significant carries for the Dolphins: Kalen Ballage, Patrick Laird, Mark Walton, Kenyan Drake, and Myles Gaskin. 

Drake and Walton are no longer with the team, but the other three remain on the roster. Also, the Dolphins decided to sign Jordan Howard in free agency to a 2-year, $9.75 million contract.

Since the Dolphins didn’t invest in the running back position in the draft, their current group will be their final depth chart unless they sign a veteran later on in the offseason.

I believe that Howard and Breida will split the rushing work almost evenly in 2020. However, Howard is a terrible pass-catcher, and Breida doesn’t have a history of heavy passing game usage either. Therefore, I think the Dolphins will use Laird as their third-down back, similar to what they did in 2019. Laird totaled 23 receptions in the eight games he played in 2019, good for almost three catches per game. In contrast, neither Howard nor Breida has ever averaged more than two receptions per game.

While I think the Dolphins will limit running back touches to just Howard, Breida, and Laird, I think it will be a messy committee that will have little fantasy value. The Dolphins are a rebuilding team and will add their running back of the future in the 2021 NFL Draft to replace all of these guys. I would hesitate to invest in Breida, Howard, or Laird, and I would undoubtedly shop Breida if he’s received a dynasty value bump from this trade.

49ers’ Aftermath

In 2019, the 49ers’ backfield was one of the nastiest three-headed committees that we’ve seen in recent years. Coleman and Mostert led the way with 137 carries each, while Breida took 123 carries. Also, Jeff Wilson came in around the goal line a few times, vulturing four rushing touchdowns from the other players.

Going into 2020, the 49ers still have Coleman, Mostert, and Wilson on the roster, and also Jerick McKinnon returning from injury. McKinnon has yet to play a game for the team after signing a massive free-agent contract before the 2018 season. However, the 49ers and McKinnon agreed to restructure his contract to keep him on the team for 2020. The 49ers didn’t invest at the running back position in free agency or the 2020 NFL Draft, so their current backfield is likely what they’ll take into the season. 

For dynasty purposes, both Coleman and Mostert receive a significant value bump from the Breida trade. However, this likely means that they have both gotten too expensive for my taste. Mostert is likely to cost an early second-round rookie pick, and Coleman will probably require a mid-to-late second-round pick. I would probably avoid both players at their costs. Mostert is already 28 years old, and you can read this article if you want to see what I think of Coleman. The one move I would suggest is to take a late flier on Jerick McKinnon. He’s free in dynasty leagues and is more naturally talented than either Mostert or Coleman, in my opinion. If you can get him for a fourth-round rookie pick, I’d buy him in dynasty leagues.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.

Previous Offseason Reactions: Nick Foles trade to Chicago, Stefon Diggs trade to the Bills, Browns’ offseason signings, Cowboys’ contract moves, Anderson signs with the Panthers, Perriman signs with the Jets, Funchess signs with the Packers, Ebron signs with the Steelers, Chiefs WR Moves, Gronk to the Bucs, Marqise Lee and the Patriots WRs