Jared Goff: Buy or Sell?

Welcome back, Dynasty family! In my previous article, we discussed Dak Prescott‘s market value and whether he is a buy or sell in Dynasty leagues. If you didn’t check out that article, you could view it here: Dak Prescott: Buy or Sell? – Dynasty Football Factory. Today, we will drop down a tier or two and discuss Lions’ QB Jared Goff. Is he a reliable QB2 for your roster? What kind of production can we expect from Goff in the future? Let’s dive into some numbers to help answer that question for you. 

College Production 

Jared Goff was a three-year starter for the University of California from 2013-2015. He started all 37 games in his career and was the first QB in school history to start Game 1 as a true freshman. Goff holds the school record for single-season passing yards (4,714), career passing yards (12,220), passing yards per game (329.7), single-season TD passes (43), career TD passes (96), and completions (977). And that’s just scratching the surface. Currently, Jared Goff holds 26 offensive records at Cal. In addition, Goff was the first QB since Aaron Rodgers (2004) to earn first-team Pac-12 honors. In short, Goff was an elite college prospect. 

NFL Production 

The Los Angeles Rams selected Jared Goff with the #1 overall pick in the 2016 NFL Draft. Goff was not a Day 1 starter in the NFL but did take over mid-season for veteran Case Keenum. Unfortunately, Goff’s rookie season did not go as planned. After taking over for Keenum, Goff went 0-7 as a starter in his rookie year, finishing with five TDs and seven INTs. However, his gameplay quickly improved in 2017 with the hiring of Sean McVay. 

McVay and Goff led the 2017 Rams to an 11-5 regular season record, an NFC West title, and a playoff appearance. Goff finished with 3,804 pass yards and 28 TDs on 62.1% completion. He ranked fourth that season in fantasy points per dropback (0.50) and led the NFL in adjusted yards per attempt (8.1). These numbers were good enough for a low-end QB1 finish in fantasy, averaging 17 points per game (PPG). Goff improved on these numbers in Year 3, throwing for 4,688 yards and 32 TDs on 64.9% completion. He finished as the QB6 overall in 2018 and averaged 19.1 PPG, which was good for 10th overall. 

Since 2018, Goff has failed to finish as a QB1. The 19.1 PPG mark was the closest he’s been to 20 PPG, which is typically the threshold we use to differentiate the elite QBs from the rest of the pack. In a standard 4-point pass TD league, here are the number of QBs that have scored over 20 PPG in each of the past five seasons, with a minimum of six games played on the year:

Okay, so we’ve established Goff does not have a mid-QB1 ceiling based on historical data. This shouldn’t come as a surprise. So where is his ceiling, exactly? If we’re looking at fantasy PPG, the only seasons Goff has exceeded 17 PPG were 2017 and 2018. He finished 10th in PPG for QBs both seasons and since then, he hasn’t been better than 16th in this category. Since 2019, he’s finished 21st, 24th, 29th, and 16th amongst QBs from a PPG perspective. The fact that Goff has remained relatively healthy throughout his career has made his overall fantasy totals look respectable, but broken down to a PPG perspective, he’s been a low-end QB2 since 2019. 

Advanced Metrics 

Now, let’s look at some advanced statistics from this past season. Goff finished in the top 10 in pass attempts, passing yards, adjusted yards per attempt, accuracy rating, deep ball completion percentage, red zone completion percentage, QBR, and true passer rating. Unfortunately, he didn’t have much help from the surrounding cast. The Lions were 28th in protection rate in 2022, at 78.2%, and they led the NFL in dropped passes with 38. Jameson Williams wasn’t healthy until late in the season, and even then, he was on a snap count. They also lost an elite tight end in T.J. Hockenson and rarely utilized D’Andre Swift, who has since been sent to Philadelphia. 

Nevertheless, Goff did a solid job of avoiding disaster, as he was only sacked 23 times (26 QBs were sacked more than Goff this past season). This is quite impressive, given the low protection rate. Goff, however, was one of the worst in the NFL in pressured completion percentage, finishing 33rd amongst QBs at just 28.2%. This tells us that he could not extend any plays with his feet and was forced to throw the ball away to avoid a big loss when pressured. 

This leads us to how Goff can consistently finish in the bottom half of NFL starting QBs in fantasy points per game, even though he finished in the top 10 in many advanced passing metrics. This is due to his complete lack of rushing upside. Jared Goff has now played 100 NFL games. In those 100 games, he has compiled just 474 rush yards and 10 TDs. That’s a total of 1.07 fantasy PPG added on the ground for the Lions’ play-caller. The plus side is the passing volume is there for Goff. He was 6th in pass attempts in 2022 with 587 and has averaged 35 pass attempts per game in his career, which puts him 12th in NFL history. But in 4-point pass TD leagues, these pocket passers need to be highly efficient with this volume to keep pace with the dual-threat QBs, and Goff has yet to consistently show us that efficiency. 

Dynasty Value 

I’ve pulled player rankings from four sites to understand where Jared Goff is valued in Dynasty Superflex leagues. The sources include Fantasy Flock, Sleeper, KeepTradeCut, and our team of experts at DFF. 

So overall, Goff is being valued as the QB20 and the 79th overall player in Superflex leagues, which would put him as a mid-seventh-round selection in startup drafts. He is valued in a similar tier to veteran QBs Derek Carr, Russell Wilson, Kirk Cousins, and Geno Smith, as well as two younger QBs in Kenny Pickett and Trey Lance. 

Goff is under contract through 2024 in Detroit, but the Lions could save money by parting ways with him. But, of course, that’s not something they’d consider right now. Goff had a nice bounce-back season in 2022, posting his best numbers since 2018. Still, if he regresses to his 2019-2021 form again this coming season, this may be worth considering for the Lions’ front office. 

The Lions selected Hendon Hooker, QB from Tennessee, with the 68th overall pick in the 2023 NFL Draft. This isn’t the kind of draft capital that should be cause for concern, but something to note. Hooker is that dual-threat QB that could put up fantasy points in a hurry if Goff gets hurt or the Lions eventually decide to move on from him. Hooker ran for over 2,000 yards and 25 TDs in his collegiate career and was largely considered to be a first-round draft pick before his ACL injury last season. So while I wouldn’t consider Goff’s starting job in jeopardy by any means, he may not have the longevity you are expecting when drafting a QB2 for your team. 

Buy or Sell

So, should you buy or sell Jared Goff? Without any context of roster construction, my simple answer would be lean toward selling Goff. I believe Goff’s average ranking of QB20 is slightly inflated, but for the most part, his market value is priced reasonably. At this point in his career, we have established a clear floor/ceiling for Goff at 14-19 fantasy PPG. He will likely remain a mid-to-low-end QB2 if he stays safely within this range. 

If you’re a rebuilding team and can trade Goff for a player like Jameson Williams or a 2023 pick around the 1.08-1.10 range, I would do that. While these assets may not give you production immediately, they should continue increasing in value and will likely be worth much more than Goff this time next off-season. If you’re looking for QB2/QB3 to add to your roster, I suggest targeting Russell Wilson or Kirk Cousins. Both have a similar price tag to Goff, but both players have proven a higher floor/ceiling combination. 

Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @DynastySavant. Until next time, keep grinding out there, Dynasty family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding