Hayden Hurst: 2020 Dynasty Profile

Past Production

Hurst found himself stuck behind Mark Andrews in Baltimore, preventing him from breaking out as a receiver. Even though Hurst was a first-round pick and Andrews went in the third round, Andrews quickly surpassed him. I believe that Andrews is one of the most talented receiving tight ends in the NFL, so I can’t entirely blame Hurst for failing to beat him out. However, Hurst has little to no past production to discuss because of his previous situation, and he’s never been a fantasy-relevant option.

2020 Outlook

However, the Falcons saw Hurst’s potential as a former first-round pick, and they decided to trade a second-round pick to acquire Hurst. Hurst immediately slots in as Austin Hooper’s direct replacement as an every-down player in the Falcons’ pass-happy offense. I’ve pounded the table for Hurst as a 2020 sleeper tight end, and I believe he comes with top-five upside in 2020. 

Even recently, I’ve moved Hurst up my rankings, as he went from the TE13 in my Falcons’ redraft breakdown to TE9 now. Hurst was a strong draft prospect, and he performed well on limited opportunities in Baltimore. In 2018 and 2019, Hooper finished as the TE6, and Hurst could easily do the same. The Falcons didn’t add any significant receiving competition, so their offense should be similar to past seasons. While Hurst is not a stone lock for fantasy stardom, I fully expect him to succeed in 2020.

Dynasty Analysis

In dynasty leagues, Hurst presents an interesting problem. While he seems like a new and hot asset, Hurst turns 27 years old in August. He had a baseball career before playing college football, so he was far older than most rookies. 27 isn’t old for a tight end, but his more advanced age does mean that he needs to break out sooner to return value.

Hurst currently ranks as my TE14 in dynasty formats, between Mike Gesicki and Irv Smith Jr. However, Hurst will not rank as the TE14 for very long. If he succeeds out of the gate in 2020, he’ll quickly gain value, as he’s tied to a star quarterback in Matt Ryan. Hurst would then vault into the top-10 tight ends, as he has the profile and size to dominate in the Falcons’ offense for years to come.

Unfortunately, Hurst needs to show something early on, because if he doesn’t, he’ll lose most of his value. Given his age, dynasty owners will quickly move on from Hurst around his TE14 price tag if he doesn’t hit soon. While I’m not sure that’s a great process, I know the dynasty market, and that’s what will happen.

Therefore, Hurst is a risky short-term hold, and he’s mostly a play for contenders who need a tight end. Hurst’s value was lower earlier in the offseason, which made him a strong buy, but his price has passed the buying point. If he continues to rise in value, I would suggest moving on from Hurst to younger options like Gesicki or Dallas Goedert, who have more insulated values. Overall, Hurst’s current price is fair, but it’s still trending up, so make sure you keep tracking it as we approach the season.

Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.