Welcome back to the “Fantasy Stock Up, Stock Down” series (preseason edition). We have officially made it to Week 3 of the preseason. Positional battles are ramping up. Injuries are opening up opportunities for players looking to earn significant roles and/or roster spots. And the time to be the most active in dynasty leagues is NOW. We are going to hear “hype” reports from beat reporters. And we are going to hear some reports that make us feel a little uneasy about our player investments. Us Dynasty Managers must constantly research ways to bolster our rosters. In this continuation series, we will dive deep into one player whose dynasty stock is increasing and one player whose dynasty stock is decreasing from each team in every division. Today, we will break down the AFC South. 

COLTS

STOCK UP – DEZMON PATMON

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2020	IND	1	0	0	0	0.0	0
2021	IND	8	4	2	21	10.5	1

Remember, this section is for a player whose stock is rising. This doesn’t mean you have to go out and make Dezmon Patmon a part of your dynasty roster (yet). Wide receiver is a thin position for the Colts behind Michael Pittman Jr. (10th all-time Colt to top 1,000 yards in a season). There’s also a lot of change on the offensive side of the ball. Matt Ryan comes in to replace Carson Wentz. Jack Doyle retired. Eric Fisher is no longer in town. And Quentin Nelson, Ryan Kelly, and Braden Smith are back healthy to bolster that offensive line. But the biggest question mark revolves around the wide receiver room. Who is going to step up behind Pittman Jr. on this roster? 

Injury-prone Parris Campbell is expected to battle rookie Alec Pierce as the WR2 on the team this season. Ashton Dulin and Keke Coutee also bring experience to the group. But the name that’s getting all the buzz is Patmon. The 24-year-old has been dominating in practice and showcasing his great play on the field as well. After only hauling in one reception for 18 yards in the first week of the preseason, the third-year pro followed that with five receptions, 103 yards, and a score last Saturday. He’s certainly showcasing why he belongs on the roster while also competing for a significant role this season. It’s anybody’s game to serve as Pittman Jr.’s understudy this season. Why couldn’t it be Patmon? 

Patmon’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 16 receptions, 157 yards, 2 touchdowns

STOCK DOWN – MO ALIE-COX

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2018	IND	9	13	7	133	19.0	2
2019	IND	16	11	8	93	11.6	0
2020	IND	15	39	31	394	12.7	2
2021	IND	17	45	24	316	13.2	4

The offseason started out looking great for Alie-Cox once Jack Doyle retired and his only competition at the position was Kylen Granson. Since then, the team went out and drafted Jelani Woods and added depth at wide receiver with Alec Pierce. Indianapolis used a third-round pick on Woods, who has all the intangibles you want from a pass-catching tight end. He’s listed at 6’7”, 253 lbs, and he hauled in eight touchdowns alone during his Senior season at Virginia. Granson, on the other hand, showed flashes last season as the Colts’ TE3. He produced 106 yards on 11 catches. Keep in mind that the team used a fourth-round pick on him just two off-seasons ago. 

All three of these tight ends are contracted until at least 2025. Although Alie-Cox is getting the larger paycheck at the end of the day, it isn’t by much. Both Granson and Woods benefit from their youth, as they are both more than four years younger. I’m not saying that Alie-Cox will lose his starting job, I’m more saying that all three could be used regularly. Remember just a few seasons ago when the team played Doyle, Alie-Cox, and Trey Burton? Alie-Cox finished with 31 receptions, 394 yards, and two touchdowns. Burton turned in 28 receptions, 250 yards, and three touchdowns. And Doyle hauled in 23 receptions for 251 yards and three touchdowns. Frank Reich loves using multiple tight ends throughout the season. Expect Alie-Cox, Granson, and Woods to all be involved heavily. 

Alie-Cox’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 32 receptions, 381 yards, 3 touchdowns

JAGUARS

STOCK UP – EVAN ENGRAM

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2017	NYG	15	115	64	722	11.3	6
2018	NYG	11	64	45	577	12.8	3
2019	NYG	8	68	44	467	10.6	3
2020	NYG	16	109	63	654	10.4	1
2021	NYG	15	73	46	408	8.9	3

Remember when Engram became this next “big” tight end in the fantasy world during his rookie season? He snagged 64 receptions for 722 yards and six touchdowns, en route to a TE5 finish. Since then, he seems like a player who has totally disappointed, but in reality, he hasn’t been all that bad. In 2018 and 2019, he was seventh amongst tight ends in average PPR points per game. He followed that up with back-to-back TE15 finishes in 2020 and 2021. No, he can’t solidify your team as your TE1, but as your TE2 or possibly TE3, why not put him on your dynasty roster? He’s now in a better situation in Jacksonville and set to haul in passes from a better quarterback. He was also brought in on a one-year $9M contract that could jump to $10M after incentives. 

Keep in mind that Jacksonville will predominately use two-tight end sets, and in their first depth chart, they listed Engram and Chris Manhertz as their starting two (not Dan Arnold). Yes, big money was spent on Christian Kirk and Zay Jones to haul in passes, but the receivers behind them (Laviska Shenault Jr., Marvin Jones, Laquon Treadwell, Jamal Agnew) won’t likely see much volume unless a substantial injury occurs. Trevor Lawrence WILL rely on the tight end position a lot. Last season alone, Jacksonville’s tight ends combined for 74 receptions, 750 yards, and two touchdowns. Newly hired head coach Doug Pederson loves to utilize tight ends in his offensive scheme. Think back to when the Eagles won the Super Bowl and both Zach Ertz and Trey Burton were heavily involved. This season, Engram, Manhertz, and Arnold will be doing everything they can to earn another contract. All three have expiring contracts after the season, which helps Engram’s long-term outlook on this team. If he can secure the TE1 spot, make an impact, and develop a strong connection with Lawrence, he’ll surely prove some doubters wrong and stay fantasy-relevant for the next few years.  

Engram’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 62 receptions, 663 yards, 4 touchdowns

STOCK DOWN – DAN ARNOLD

Year	Team	Games Played	Targets	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2018	NO	10	19	12	150	12.5	1
2019	NO/ARI	5	14	8	127	15.9	2
2020	ARI	16	45	31	438	14.1	4
2021	CAR/JAX	11	52	35	408	11.7	0

Trevor Lawrence put together a pretty disappointing rookie season last year. Not only did he have to deal with multiple different head coaches, but he also lost his top-two running backs (Etienne, Robinson), his WR2 (DJ Chark), and never developed a strong connection with Laviska Shenault Jr. as we all hoped. One strong connection he did form was with a tight end who came in during Week 4. Dan Arnold became one of his go-to pass-catchers before he also went down with a lengthy injury. In seven games played, they connected 28 times for 324 yards. It seemed like Jacksonville found their tight end for their promising young quarterback. Well, this offseason turned things around dramatically for Arnold. 

Jacksonville had a ton of money to spend, and they elected to give out pricey contracts to Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and Evan Engram. All three players are listed as starters in Jacksonville’s released depth chart. Although Engram received a one-year deal, he may stick around long-term considering Arnold himself has an expiring contract after this season. What makes matters even worse is that Arnold isn’t even listed as the TE2 on this team. Chris Manhertz is ahead of him on the team’s depth chart, and he’s expected to be on the field a ton in two tight end sets. The lack of blocking skills displayed by Arnold this offseason has him somewhat buried on the depth chart. Expect some production this season, but with Engram and Manhertz ahead of him and the team neglecting to commit to him long-term, Arnold’s dynasty value is plummeting. He’s not worth rostering unless you play in a deeper league. 

Arnold’s 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 23 receptions, 278 yards, 1 touchdown

TEXANS

STOCK UP – DAMEON PIERCE

Year	School	Class	Games Played	Carries	Yards	TDs	Receptions	Yards	TDs
2018	Florida	FR	11	69	424	2	5	20	1
2019	Florida	SO	12	54	305	4	4	30	0
2020	Florida	JR	12	106	503	4	17	156	1
2021	Florida	SR	13	100	574	13	19	216	3

Why not jump on the bandwagon that’s centering around the fourth-rounder? Pierce rolled out with the starters on Thursday night against the 49ers. Here’s the bad news, he only saw action on the first drive by Houston. Here’s the good news, he turned six carries into 37 yards and a touchdown. That was an obvious indicator that he is the RB1 for this team, and the offense “should” revolve around him. When he was drafted back in April, many were skeptical for a few reasons. First of all, it’s the Houston Texans we’re talking about here. Secondly, the organization went out and acquired both Marlon Mack and Dare Ogunbowale to compete with Pierce, Rex Burkhead, and Royce Freeman. What turned into a running-back-by-committee approach turned into Pierce is expected to serve as the RB1, and the rest will fill in behind him in some way. 

Let’s say we are getting way too ahead of ourselves and that Pierce, Mack, and Burkhead will all see prominent roles in this offense. The main question you have to ask yourself is this. Why wouldn’t the Texans help the rookie blossom instead of giving ample amounts of opportunities to a 26-year-old back who isn’t far removed from a torn Achilles (Mack) and a 32-year-old pass-catching back who isn’t in your future plans (Burkhead)? If this organization were smart (I’m not saying they are), they would ride with Pierce as their clear RB1 this season. That may come to fruition, and the possibility of that increased exponentially when Pierce dominated with the starters on Thursday. 

Pierce’s 2022 Prediction

Rushing: 147 carries, 632 yards, 5 touchdowns

Receiving: 17 receptions, 150 yards, 1 touchdown

STOCK DOWN – JOHN METCHIE III

Year	School	Class	Games Played	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2018	Alabama	FR	4	4	23	5.8	0
2019	Alabama	SO	13	55	916	16.7	6
2020	Alabama	JR	13	96	1,142	11.9	8

 There’s not much to say about Metchie’s situation. We all feel for him and hope he recovers safely and quickly from his battle with leukemia. He’ll find himself on one of your IR spots until at least next season. In the meantime, Brandin Cooks and Nico Collins will serve as the go-to receivers for Davis Mills. Houston is in a rebuilding process, and the development of Mills, Collins, and Metchie was going to be one of the most intriguing things to watch for this season. Now Collins gets an opportunity to solidify himself as the team’s WR2 and possibly the future WR1 if the organization decides to move off Cooks any time soon. This is an unfortunate situation for Metchie, but the main focus is health at this point. Because we don’t know what his future looks like, his dynasty value surely takes a negative hit. But he isn’t worth moving off of by any means. 

 *METCHIE III WILL MISS THIS ENTIRE SEASON*

TITANS

STOCK UP – KYLE PHILIPS

Year	School	Class	Games Played	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2018	UCLA	FR	4	6	31	5.2	0
2019	UCLA	SO	11	60	681	11.4	5
2020	UCLA	SO	7	38	370	9.7	2
2021	UCLA	JR	11	59	739	12.5	10

There has been a ton of turnover at the receiver position for the Tennessee Titans. Going into last season, many were excited to see the pairing of A.J. Brown and Julio Jones in this offense. Now going into this season, Brown is a Philadelphia Eagle and Jones has paired with Tom Brady in Tampa Bay. In comes Robert Woods, Treylon Burks, and Kyle Philips. The expectation was that Woods, Burks, and Nick Westbrook-Ikhine would serve as the top-three receivers for Ryan Tannehill this year. But with Woods recovering from an injury and Burks slowly adjusting to the pros, Philips has emerged as one of Tannehill’s favorite targets. 

Titans defensive back Kevin Byard recently spoke to reporters and stated that “Philips has been like Ryan’s (Tannehill) go-to receiver in two-minute and a lot of different situations.” Think about that for a moment. Tannehill hasn’t had much time with Woods yet, and Burks has struggled mightily in both camp and in preseason games. On top of that, Tannehill has a connection with Westbrook-Ikhine that started to spark last season. But the fifth-round rookie is turning into the go-to guy in practice. Although he has only hauled in one reception for 11 yards in the preseason, it means a lot when one of the leaders of this team’s defense comes out and delivers a quote like that. Philips may never turn into that standout receiver, but if he can put together a couple of decent seasons, he’s worth stashing on your bench. And it wouldn’t be a bad idea to roster him behind a Robert Woods on your team. Woods is 30 years old now, and he’s dealt with some serious injury problems. If he were to miss extended time, Philips could shine in a more volume-based role. 

Philips’ 2022 Prediction

Receiving: 27 receptions, 275 yards, 2 touchdowns

STOCK DOWN – DERRICK HENRY

Year	Team	Games Played	Carries	Yards	Yards/Carry	TDs	Receptions	Yards	Yards/Catch	TDs
2016	TEN	15	110	490	4.5	5	13	137	10.5	0
2017	TEN	16	176	744	4.2	5	11	136	12.4	1
2018	TEN	16	215	1,059	4.9	12	15	99	6.6	0
2019	TEN	15	303	1,540	5.1	16	18	206	11.4	2
2020	TEN	16	378	2,027	5.4	17	19	114	6.0	0
2021	TEN	8	219	937	4.3	10	18	154	8.6	0

This may be the last time you can receive a decent haul in a Derrick Henry trade. If he suffers another serious injury this season, his dynasty value will plummet at a rapid rate. Of course it’s hard to move on from possibly the best running back of the last three years. What he’s been able to do as a pure rusher is jaw-dropping, but you want to make sure you take advantage of his worth. If you’re going all out to win a championship this season, it makes sense to hold onto him, but it also makes sense to ship him even if you’re contending. You’ll be able to receive a starting running back immediately if you trade him away. On top of that, you should be able to receive either another starter, some draft capitol, or both. This isn’t a spot in this article series where we are going to say many negative things about Henry as a player. This is simply a word for advice to those who want to capitalize the most they can out of what they have. 

Tennessee has already begun a “retooling” process for their team. Trading away Brown was the first indicator of this major shift. Drafting Malik Willis was the other. Although they don’t look like they are shifting gears entirely this year, it does look like this team could have a new-look offense in a season or two. This means that Henry’s time as a workhorse back for the Titans is coming to an end. At the same time, you don’t see many 28-year-old backs with 1,401 career carries still doing what he’s doing. The last time a running back older than 28 topped 1,000 yards was Mark Ingram in 2019. In the last 10 years, only Ingram, Adrian Peterson, LeSean McCoy, LeGarrette Blount, Frank Gore, and Steven Jackson have accomplished that feat. Henry can certainly join that small list, but even if he does, his dynasty value slips even more going into next season because of overutilization and age factors. These things don’t mean that you should trade Henry away, but holding onto him and watching his career slowly come to an end rather than trading him and receiving a haul instead may be the wrong thing to do. 

Henry’s 2022 Prediction

Rushing: 326 carries, 1,434 yards, 13 touchdowns

Receiving: 22 receptions, 169 yards, 1 touchdown

Other Divisional Breakdowns: NFC North, AFC North, NFC South

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