Dynasty Analysis
Welcome back, Dynasty family! I wanted to mix it up today and review a few real trades in my Dynasty leagues this off-season. I’ll show you the trade results and give you my thoughts, breaking down each trade, and letting you know who I think came out on top. I’ll also provide you with the basic league format for each trade, which helps us to see the complete picture. So let’s jump right into our first trade!
The off-season is a great time to garner expectations for players entering the new season. There is plenty of data available to tell us what we might be able to expect from most players each season. With rookies, however, it can be much more challenging. We have much less to go off of, and having zero NFL information makes it especially difficult. But we should not get discouraged and give up. We must use what we have to formulate reasonable opinions on what might happen! This way, we can efficiently evaluate these players in both Dynasty and Redraft leagues. Today, I will cover Jordan Addison and what to do with him in Dynasty and upcoming Redraft leagues.
As we inch closer to training camp, the fantasy hive-mind begins sorting out how they feel rosters and depth charts will settle by the time we get the regular season. Some spots are easy. Patrick Mahomes will be the QB1 for the Kansas City Chiefs. Some spots are much trickier. The New York Giants WR room is one of the trickiest in the league. A combination of middling veterans and unproven youth cause this group to be underwhelming. Despite no true superstars, someone will have to catch passes from Daniel Jones. Who will it be? Knowing the answer now will give you a massive edge over your league mates.
DFF TV presents another ~FREE~ episode of “The Factory Tour” with host @Paul_DFF and special guest @FF_Reez!
As fantasy football has grown, so have the ways it can be played. For most people, the only option when they first started was your standard ten-team redraft league. Then you discover the keeper league, where you keep one or more players from your previous season’s team to your next season’s team. Then, if you are lucky, you discover the world of Dynasty, which begins to bring exponentially new challenges. You have Devy leagues, IDP, Superflex, Campus to Canton, Vampire leagues, Guillotine leagues, Empire leagues… The list goes on and on.
In Dynasty fantasy football, every player has a trade value and an internal value. Trade value refers to how the market (your leaguemates) view a particular asset and what kind of return you could get on said asset if you sell them. Internal value refers to the return on investment you could get by keeping a player on your roster rather than trading them away. In today’s article, I want to discuss a few players in Dynasty today that have a higher internal value than trade value; in other words, it makes more sense to hold onto these assets until the market becomes more bullish on these guys.
An important aspect of Dynasty is being able to identify players with the most likely path to accruing value. Asset value alone doesn’t win you championships, but it gets you into a position where you can acquire players that bring with them the necessary production to compete for a title. There are two primary tools I use to determine player value. The first is Keep Trade Cut which crowdsources Dynasty managers’ player evaluation data by asking them to keep, trade, or cut three closely ranked players. The second is Bulletproof ADP which utilizes actual Dynasty startup draft position data from Sleeper.
Welcome, everybody, to part two of my “Dynasty Fantasy Football for Beginners” series. Dynasty fantasy football is a unique and exciting format requiring a different approach to trading than redraft leagues. In a dynasty league, you are building a team for the long haul, and strategic trading can make all the difference in creating a championship-caliber squad. Each strategy will benefit different roster constructions. So take a good look at your roster, decide which direction you want to take your team, and consider these strategies. Before we jump right in, don’t forget to check out my first article, discussing pre-draft prep for your Dynasty startup.
The NFL Draft is one of the more polarizing events during the NFL offseason. Rookies are coming into the league for a chance at prominent roles right out of the gate for NFL teams looking to upgrade their positions in order to strengthen their squads. This is also important for fantasy managers. As we get closer and closer to league drafts or rookie drafts in Dynasty leagues, new rookies impact the fantasy value of veteran players on football rosters across the league. This can also make offseason trades more difficult.
DFF TV presents another ~FREE~ episode of “The Factory Tour” with host @Paul_DFF and special guest Jakob Sanderson!
DFF TV presents another ~FREE~ episode of “The Factory Tour” with host @Paul_DFF and special guest @bwinknfl!
A much-overlooked aspect of Dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of Dynasty players to Redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking, “Well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in Dynasty than Redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYJ), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in Redraft or Dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DEN), who in Redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in Dynasty, he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over eight parts (one part for each division), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to Redraft or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.
There’s no doubt that narratives can take on a life of their own in the Twitter Dynasty community. And while some narratives do have merit, others can be exaggerated or aren’t as grounded in fact. Dynasty owners must think for themselves and evaluate players based on analytics, talent, and situation. Don’t blindly follow the narratives you see on Twitter because they’re popular. Do your research, trust your process, and #PlantYourFlag on the players you believe in. With that said, I’m here to dispel a few of these claims and show you another side of the story. So, let’s dive in and “crush” our first narrative!
A much-overlooked aspect of Dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of Dynasty players to Redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking, “Well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in Dynasty than Redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYJ), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in Redraft or Dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DEN), who in Redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in Dynasty, he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over eight parts (one part for each division), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to Redraft or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.
In this ~FREE~ edition of DFF TV, @WillieBeamanDFF dives into how much RBs/WRS matter in the middle rounds.
DFF TV presents “Always Be Building” featuring @bwinknfl and @puma_drew. This ~FREE~ edition features 2024 Dynasty/Devy Trades.
I am a massive fan of veterans in Dynasty Fantasy Football, thanks to their discounted price. A brief glance through my previous writing will reveal this. One downside of these players is that they are nearing a drop in value, and you may not be able to get a return on your initial investment. If we look at Dynasty as a purely stock market game, this is a complete disaster. However, Dynasty Fantasy Football is not a stock market despite having some elements of a stock market within it. The way you win in your Dynasty league is ultimately by scoring more points than your opponents. Players hold value based on their potential to score fantasy points for us in the future. But after those points are scored, a player will often not return to their previous value. When should we ignore conventional stock market strategy and hold on to an asset even if we know it will depreciate in value? What players should we take the loss on?
In the fantasy football Twitter space, different and new stats and metrics are thrown out constantly by people talking about their favorite and least favorite players. My job as a numbers-based analyst is to understand which statistics best project fantasy success. In this mini-series, I will go through each position and tell you some of my favorite stats, how much they matter, and stats I often see that do not matter as much as someone might want you to think. Let’s dive right in with our first position: wide receiver.
We here at Dynasty Football Factory pride ourselves on giving you true actionable content with real substance instead of halfway stances and positions on players. The hashtag #plantyourflag speaks to this. Our writers and rankers pride themselves on being willing to stand up and declare something that you, our readers, can take something from. When this happens, though, sometimes our rankers will disagree on players. Instead of seeing this as a negative, we see this as a positive.
Every year in fantasy football, we see a handful of players that far exceed their projected fantasy output and help carry fantasy owners to a league championship. Last year, Josh Jacobs, Amari Cooper, and Jamaal Williams were a few names that outperformed expectations and were integral to many fantasy championship rosters. As Dynasty owners, we are always looking for market inefficiencies, trying to acquire that asset that could skyrocket in value. At the same time, we have to find a balance between immediate production and longevity. In this article, I’m giving you one name from each skill position that is currently being undervalued and could become that “league-winner” for your team, either in 2023 or in the future. I will also discuss each player’s outlook from a dynasty perspective and whether it makes sense for you to buy based on roster construction.
DFF TV is always ~FREE~ and @WillieBeamanDFF drops this Rapid Reaction featuring DeAndre Hopkins and his release from Arizona.
DFF TV presents another ~FREE~ episode of “The Factory Tour” with host @Paul_DFF and special guest @ChrisMiles1017!
It’s been some time since I put pen to paper per se, but I’ve been playing actor and director, focusing most of my energy on building up the Dynasty Football Factory YouTube page. So I’m dusting off the keyboard and dropping a few film-based dynasty rookie sleepers and fades.
It has become common knowledge in the Dynasty community that one should either compete for a championship or try to acquire future assets and secure a higher draft spot. While many can tell when it is time to “blow it up” and begin rebuilding on a team that was once a contender, the part often unmentioned is when to go from a rebuilding team to winning the championship. I have experienced the joy of earning the 1.01 as my rookie pick and winning a championship the following season, but I have also seen many teams stuck in the perpetual rebuild. Their roster and assets look great in any roster evaluation tool, but we aren’t here to have good-looking rosters. We are here to win championships. So how do we turn the corner?
Typically, draft capital provides prospects a great degree of insulation for playing time and job security. If there is one thing we know about the Shanahans and running backs, they will give anyone a chance if they can play.