Devy Analysis
This series is coming to you on a bi-weekly basis in 2021. Week Zero and Week One of the college football season had a familiar feel with virtually every conference and every level of collegiate ball being played. There have already been several unprecedented upsets and perennial top-10 ranked teams taking losses. These games were highlighted by Clemson’s loss to Georgia in Week Zero, as well as Ohio State’s loss to Oregon and Iowa State’s loss to Iowa in Week One. We will now discuss some of the individual player performances and draft stock movement!
After a disappointing individual performance in a Week 1 loss to Virginia Tech, the Junior 6’1″ 220 lbs. QB bounced back in a big way against the clearly outmatched Georgia State Panthers. In Week 2 Howell completed 72.4% of his passes for 353 yards and three touchdowns and zero interceptions, a stark improvement from his 53.1% completion percentage and one touchdown with three interceptions. However, what got Sam Howell on the list today was he rushing in Week 2. Howell gashed Georgia State for 104 yards and two touchdowns on 11 carries.
In devy leagues, we are all looking for not only the generational talents at the collegiate level that will be NFL stars when they go pro, but we are also looking for the hidden gems that go under the radar but will be league winners someday. While generational talents like D.J. Uiagalelei, Bijan Robinson, and Kayshon Boutte are all well known in the fantasy community this article will try to determine breakout players based on their on-field play and analytical profiles.
Each week of the College Football season, I will be highlighting “Devy” players that excelled that particular week. I will touch on a QB, RB, and Pass Catcher (WR or TE) that performed well and deserve your attention. Sometimes these players will be established devy prospects, and other times they will be more under the radar. With Week 1 of the College Football season behind us, let’s dive right into it!
The Bearcats breakout quarterback is getting first-round hype for the NFL draft, and rightfully so. He provides a tantalizing combination of passing accuracy, completing 61% of his passes for 6,905 yards and 57 touchdowns with elite rushing abilities. This elite rushing ability is highlighted by his 391 college rushes that yielded 1,825 yards and 22 touchdowns. His 6’4” and 215 lbs. frame provide the prototypical NFL quarterback size to go along with his long speed, which is validated by his 4.55-second 40-yard dash spring testing time. He also can make defenders miss in space, as evident by his 4.0-seconds flat short shuttle time. Ridder is a player similar to Jalen Hurts, who will be a fringe first-round to the second-round draft selection, whose stock will skyrocket if given extended NFL starts by the franchise that drafts him.
The USC receiver also participates on the USC basketball team. Standing at 6’5” and 210 lbs. London has a skill set that allows him to succeed in both basketball and football at the division-one collegiate level. His 38” vertical leap along with his stiff, and ridged running style project him to be a solid big-slot receiver or tight end at the NFL level. His decent athleticism to go along with elite size yielded 72 catches for 1,069 yards and eight touchdowns during his USC career. With Amon-Ra St. Brown transitioning to the NFL, and Bru McCoy being released from the USC football program, London should be in line for a high target share in 2021 despite his DeVonta Smith BMI levels.
Justin Hall is the most productive FCS receiver of all time, having hauled in 257 passes for 2,772 yards and 13 touchdowns also adds peripheral production in the rushing game. It is clear why Ball State focused on feeding Hall throughout his career. The 5’9” and 186 lbs. super senior is known for his insane strength. Along with being very productive through the air and ground, Hall tested very well this Spring with a 500 lbs. back squat and a 305 lbs. power clean. Because he plays in the FCS, he is not eligible for Campus to Canton leagues, but remember the name when the NFL Combine for 2022 rolls around.
The most electric-skill position player in the FCS is Sam Houston’s 5’9” and 192 lbs. wide receiver and kick returner Ezzard. He dominated Sam Houston’s competition over his career averaging 27 yards per reception and 18 yards per return. He wins with his dynamic burst, testing out of this world in spring ball with a 4.28-second 40-yard dash and a 45.5” vertical leap. Ezzard is a big play waiting to happen, and with his frame, he could transition into an NFL slot receiver and difference-maker on special teams. His addition in the special teams game may garner day-two draft capital, though the non-savvy dynasty players may take this to believe that draft capital is an indication of early offensive success.
This year we will be counting down the most athletic players from the least likely to make an impact in the NFL to the most likely. In doing this we are going to combine the players’ athletic traits, production profiles, and competition levels to highlight undervalued devy assets as well as players to keep an eye on for late breakouts. In this article, we will start with the uber-athletic athletes that do not have the production that indicates NFL Draft capital. Let’s dive into the higher-end devy dark horses!
This year we will be counting down the most athletic players from the least likely to make an impact in the NFL to the most likely. In doing this we are going to combine the players’ athletic traits, production profiles, and competition levels to highlight undervalued devy assets as well as players to keep an eye on for late breakouts. We will start with the uber-athletic prospects that do not have the production to indicate NFL Draft capital. Let’s dive into the devy dart throws!
There is a player from the 2020 class who compares favorably to Metcalf and is on pace to outproduce Metcalf’s college statistics considerably. This prospect is on the same trajectory as Metcalf was in his early college days and could even surpass Metcalf when it comes to his upside. This prospect ran a 4.52-second 40-yard dash at his high school combine, at the same weight that Metcalf ran a 4.68. Metcalf gained over 20 lbs. in college and his agility was impacted. His 4.3-second high school short shuttle decreased to 4.5-seconds at the NFL Combine. His three-cone drill also dropped from 6.8-seconds to 7.38-seconds at the NFL Combine.
In this article, I will take you through the top devy options that are eligible for the 2022 NFL Draft. We will look at their listed measurements according to their college programs as well as their projected 40-yard dash times. We will project 40-yard dash times by taking their high school combine testing results and adjusting them based on the expected positional progression as these players progress from being 18-year-old kids to 21-year-old NFL players. We will also use film analysis to tweak these projected times on a player-to-player basis. Finally we will look at players who tested similarly to create a superimposed range of outcomes for these players. Let’s dive in with the top options from the class of 2022.
The 6’0” and 208 lbs. sophomore sure has a great pedigree, although he didn’t get much action in the COVID-19 impacted PAC-12 2020 season. His father, Emmitt Smith, is the NFL All-Time leading rusher amassing 18,355 yards over his 15-year career. E.J. Smith showed off a similar rushing capability as his father did in Texas High School Football, also showing off elite receiving abilities with 114 receptions over his final three high school seasons in Dallas. He is currently being selected outside the top-50 in devy drafts and is outside the top-100 in some of the “big-name” devy site rankings. Smith is a player that I can’t get enough of this offseason, and I can’t wait until the consensus sees his value skyrocket.
To explain the methodology of this process I have broken down many of the top recruits into three cohorts. First, we have the #TeamPedigree. These are highly rated players who retain value in devy leagues based on their recruiting hype alone and will be projected for high NFL Draft capital even if they do not succeed in achieving an early collegiate breakout. Secondly, we will look at the #TeamPotenial cohort. These are prospects that in the right situation, and if given opportunities early in their college career, can skyrocket to the top of the 2025 Draft class. Finally, we have my favorite type of players in the #TeamFun cohort., players who have unparalleled potential as NFL prospects but need several events to unfold for that potential to be realized and also offer dynasty league-changing upside.
Campus to Canton is a devy fantasy football format that is swiftly escalating in popularity among fantasy football enthusiasts. We can take a step back first and cover a few items worth noting. A devy league is a league in which you roster players that are not yet in the NFL, typically college football players. The word devy is a shortened version of developmental players. Campus to Canton leagues is the furthest down the devy rabbit hole that you can go!
Every year in devy leagues, we yearn for the players who produce in their freshman season, preferably as true freshmen. Last year, we saw the likes of Jahmyr Gibbs, Tank Bigsby, and Bijan Robinson have breakout seasons as true freshmen and boost their stocks to become first-round devy picks as just sophomores. They were joined by Deamonte Trayanum, Deuce Vaughn, Sean Tucker, and Ty Jordan (we were shocked and very saddened by the news of his passing earlier this offseason). Not all freshman breakouts end up being highly touted devy assets though, so in addition to predicting some true freshman breakout seasons, we will also aim to declare potential breakouts as well as what their value change projects to be.
At 6’4” 215 lbs. Desmond Ridder was in the conversation with Mac Jones and Kyle Trask to be the QB5 in the 2021 draft class. However, he opted to return to Cincinnati for his senior season. The former three-star-recruit has come a long way and enters the 2021 season with hopes of making a case for himself as a top-three QB.
In his freshman season, Jayden Daniels proved to be a trusted piece putting up five games of more than 300 yards and rushing over the 50-yard mark three times. A few games stand out when looking at his game log from 2019: completion percentages of 22.2% and 42.9% against Utah and Florida State. These are two of the better teams Daniels faced, and while it shouldn’t be shocking they gave him fits, a sub-50% completion percentage is rough.
This past season as a true freshmen Johnston led the Horned Frogs in receiving yards with 487. He was second on the team in receiving TDs with two. This may not seem like a lot but when you realize that TCU only passed for 196 yards-per-game. You see that Quentin commanded nearly a third of the teams receiving yards as freshmen (on a per-game basis). His production was strong enough for a “breakout” season as he comfortably eclipsed the 20% Dominator Rating many people use to classify a “breakout”.
In his true freshman season, Wilson caught 26 passes for 385 yards and five TDs. Within the context of the Ohio State offense, he accounted for 11.4% of their receiving yardage and 10.6% of their receiving scoring. This equates to an 11.0% dominator rating and an 11.3% adjusted dominator rating. Wilson also averaged 1.07 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout.
Bryce Young should be the unquestioned starter in 2021. He plays behind an offensive line that proves to be one of the best in the country year after year. He will undoubtedly be surrounded by the next wave of Bama stars. Young’s top receiving option should be John Metchie who recorded 55 receptions for 914 yards and six touchdowns last season.
Eric Gray began his career at Tennessee in impressive fashion, sharing the backfield before breaking out late in the season. He finished with 539 rushing yards and 115 receiving yards with 5 total TDs as a true freshman. This past season, he led the Vols with 772 yards and scored four TDs on 157 carries. He tacked on 30 receptions for 254 more yards and two TDs, eclipsing 1000 scrimmage yards. Gray was featured as a player on the rise in your author’s weekly draft stock seasonal article in October.
In his true freshman season, Olave caught 12 passes for 197 yards and three TDs. Within the context of the Ohio State offense, he accounted for 3.9% of their receiving yardage and 6% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 5% dominator rating and a 4.3% adjusted dominator rating. Olave also averaged 0.36 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout. His yards per catch average was 17.6, where above 16 is a statistically significant indicator for an NFL player’s deep-threat ability. The 2018 Ohio State team also had Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell, K.J. Hill, and J.K. Dobbins, all current NFL players, with who Olave was competing for targets.
In his true freshman season, Pickens caught 37 passes for 552 yards and seven TDs. Within the context of the Georgia offense, he accounted for 19.2% of their receiving yardage and 30.4% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 24.8% dominator rating and a 21.5% adjusted dominator rating. Pickens also averaged 1.43 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout, within the context of the season one could argue that he did break out.
D.J. Uiagalelei, a 6’5”, 245-lb. five-star recruit, was the number-one-rated QB in the 2020 recruiting class. He only saw limited action in 2020 behind Trevor Lawrence, but showed enough to provide a glimpse of what 2021 could have in store. The future is bright for the young star as he should be the unquestioned starter heading into the 2021 season.