Devy Analysis
JT Daniels burst on the scene at USC starting as a true freshman, and, while not a stud, looked to be a solid enough player. Obviously, his accuracy was less than stellar and the offense struggled from time to time, but these growing pains aren’t unheard of from true freshman quarterbacks. Entering his second season at USC, there was hope that Daniels was ready to take the next step behind center and elevate his level of play. Halfway through the first game in 2019, USC found themselves scrambling for a replacement as Daniels went down with a torn ACL.
Behind Justin Herbert in 2019, Tyler Shough never really had much of a shot. In the shortened 2020 season he started every game for the Ducks completing 63.5% of his passes for 1559 yards and 13 touchdowns. Shough also showed he could get it done on the ground, rushing 66 times for 271 yards.
Kayshon Boutte is a 6’0” and 185 lbs. five-star wide receiver for the LSU Tigers. He was the WR2 and 24th overall prospect from the 2023 class. In his true freshman season, Boutte caught 45 passes for 735 yards and five TDs. Within the context of the LSU offense, he accounted for 23.5% of their receiving yardage and 20.8% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 22.2% dominator rating and a 23% adjusted dominator rating. Boutte also averaged 1.75 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout, within the context of the season one could argue that he did break out.
Kyren Williams is a 5’9” 195 lbs. running back that was a former four-star recruit. He was 247’s 24th ranked running back in the 2019 class and the sixth-ranked player from Missouri. Williams was an all-purpose stand-out in high school, helping lead his team to a state championship in 2018 with a state-championship game record of 289 rushing yards and 354 total yards.
As of now, Treylon Burks is a consensus top 5 WR in the 2022 class. I am very confident he will end up in my top 3. What will propel Burks up boards is his athleticism and size. With a frame very similar to D.K. Metcalf and speed of his own, Burks could be a big combine riser. Reports are Treylon has been clocked with a 4.4 40 which is not D.K. Metcalf fast, but fast enough to turn heads and get NFL coaches and GMs talking.
In 2019 Kedon Slovis took over after J.T. Daniels went down to injury and never looked back. Daniels has since transferred to Georgia. Slovis put up big numbers for a true freshman and immediately garnered attention because of it. Slovis’s numbers are a bit deceptive because he only played six games in 2020. It isn’t perfect, but if we extrapolate these numbers to match a traditional 12 game season, things look a bit better. He was on pace for 3842 yards and 34 touchdowns. These marks would’ve put him above all quarterbacks receiving 2022 first-round valuations. However, with this extrapolation, we see he was on pace for 14 interceptions as well. With three of his seven interceptions coming in his final game against Oregon, that 14 may not be as accurate as it seems.
Kevin Harris is a 5’10” 227 lbs. running back that was a former three-star recruit. He was 247’s 44th ranked running back in the 2019 class. When reviewing his high school tape, Harris was most likely overlooked for two reasons. He played at a smaller high school and his offensive line at his high school was very effective, minimizing both the need and opportunity for him to break tackles.
As a true freshman, David Bell achieved a breakout season. In 2019, Bell caught 86 passes for 1,035 yards and seven TDs. He also added another score on the ground, amassing 1,047 yards from scrimmage and eight offensive TDs. In the context of the Purdue passing attack, Bell produced 27.8% of the team’s receiving yardage and 24.1% of the team’s receiving scoring. These figures equate to a 26.0% dominator rating and a 27.1% adjusted dominator rating, both qualifying him for a breakout age of 18.8 years old. Bell’s 1.99 yards per team pass attempt fell just short of the 2.0 threshold that we like to see in wide receiver prospects.
Spencer Rattler is currently the odds-on favorite to win the 2021 Heisman Trophy. At 6’1”, 205 lbs. he is shorter than the average NFL quarterback, but that isn’t keeping him from being projected at a stop option at the position in 2022. Rattler was the top quarterback in the 2019 recruiting class but was forced to sit his freshman season behind Jalen Hurts.
Justyn Ross is possibly the best wide receiver to play for Clemson University, if not one of the best we have seen in the college game of recent memory. Better than DeVonta Smith. Yes, I said that and stand by it. He has the size (6’4”/205 lbs.) and despite his pedestrian 4.87 40 time, as soon as he straps on a helmet and pads, he takes it to a whole other level. The current NFL player I would most likely compare him to is another Clemson WR product, DeAndre Hopkins. His size, catch radius and just football instincts are second to none.
Spencer Rattler was the QB1 and 11th overall prospect coming out of high school. The five-star Arizona native chose to play for Lincoln Riley in Oklahoma. After sitting out for the 2019 season behind Jalen Hurts, Rattler was allowed to start during his redshirt freshman season in 2020. The 6’1” 205 lbs. quarterback is still developing, but we expect to see him drafted early in the 2022 NFL Draft.
At the time of writing, betting odds place Sam Howell as one of the top five players most likely to win the 2022 Heisman Trophy. With the departure of teammates Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, and Dyami Brown, the Tarheel offense faces an uphill battle. If Howell is able to put up similar numbers after losing several heavy hitters to the NFL, it will set a lot of people at ease that it was talent and not merely the situation that led to Howell’s success.
As a freshman, Breece Hall earned the Iowa State starting running back job. He ran for 897 yards and nine TDs on a 4.9 yards per carry average. He also showed off his pass-catching abilities with 19 catches for 207 yards and one TD. As a true freshman he accounted for 19% of the team yardage, and 19% of their touchdown production. Thus, he earned a 19% dominator rating, qualifying for a true freshman breakout at age 18.7 years old.
Jahmyr Gibbs produced early and often for the Yellow Jackets. In his first collegiate game, Gibbs had 126 yards from scrimmage and scored a TD both on the ground and in the air. He also returned two kickoffs for 93 yards. It was clear that the Georgia Tech offense was centered around getting Gibbs the ball in space. Gibbs rushed for 460 yards and four TDs on his 89 attempts. He had 5.2 yards per rush against the ACC defenders. Gibbs showed that he is an elite pass catcher in his freshman season. He caught 24 passes for 303 yards and three TDs.
Bigsby went viral in his third collegiate game when he had 146 yards on 20 carries. He became the Tigers workhorse back, despite their anemic Bo Nix-led offense. Bigsby battled injuries throughout the season, otherwise, his freshman stats would be even more impressive. Bigsby rushed for 834 yards and five TDs on his 138 attempts. He had an impressive 6.0 yards per rush against the daunting defenses of the SEC. Bigsby showed that he is a capable pass catcher, but not to the extent of being able to play outside in his freshman season. He caught 11 passes for 84 yards.
As a freshman, Bijan Robinson played in nine games, he was not utilized early in the season but took over as the primary ball carrier by the end of the season. He only rushed the ball 86 times, but he was efficient with his touches. Robinson finished with 703 yards on the ground for an average of 8.2 per rush. He found the endzone four times on the ground. Robinson proved to be a capable pass catcher with 15 catches. He turned those catches into 196 yards and two more TDs. Robinson had a dominator rating of 15% and an adjusted dominator rating of 17%, both qualifying him for a true freshman breakout at the age of 18.7 years old.
Heading into the 2021 season, Ohio State has one of the best-receiving corps in the country. On top of that, they have recruited top receivers the past few seasons resulting in a crowded wide receiver room. The Buckeyes will bring in three top recruits this upcoming season, and without losing any key players, questions about whether there are too many mouths to feed are flying. Undoubtedly some of these guys will have to bide their time, but that doesn’t mean that you should miss out on getting in on the ground floor.
A devy league is like being an investor and trying to find the perfect initial public offering (IPO) to invest in. These player assets are similar to investing in new companies that are just hitting the market. You can make a small investment in a player and see massive gains by the time they enter the NFL. On the flip side, you can make a rather large investment in a player who never ends up playing in the NFL. The type of league you choose is all based on how risk-averse you would like to be. Let’s look at how to find the perfect devy league and detail what to expect in each.
Welcome to the Thunderdome my #DFFArmy, the name’s Heady and college football signing day is FINALLY complete. Now that all of those four and five-star players have delivered their letter of intent to the college of their choice, it is time to dive into where the gunslingers of this class rank with regards to Devy leagues. Because most leagues only have three to five open roster spots, soon to be freshman quarterbacks will need to have that “it” factor to make them worthy. Lucky for you, I went out and spent the time watching their film to rank the five quarterbacks you should consider in this new 2024 class.
The stand-out performances from the weekend’s Senior Bowl contributed to the rise of several players’ draft stocks. However, the game was not the only opportunity players had to show their worth. Many players increased their draft stock and earned some more money by how they performed and carried themselves during the week of practice.
In devy leagues, we are all looking for not only the generational talents at the collegiate level that will be NFL stars when they go pro, but we are also looking for the hidden gems that go under the radar but will be league winners someday. While generational talents like Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Ja’Marr Chase are all well known in the fantasy community this article will try to determine breakout players who can be attained in future devy drafts based on their on-field play and analytical profiles.
In devy leagues, we are all looking for not only the generational talents at the collegiate level that will be NFL stars when they go pro, but we are also looking for the hidden gems that go under the radar but will be league winners someday. While generational talents like Trevor Lawrence, Travis Etienne, and Ja’Marr Chase are all well known in the fantasy community this article will try to determine breakout players who can be attained in future devy drafts based on their on-field play and analytical profiles.
As most of you know, I’m not a devy writer. In fact, I don’t think I’ve ever written a devy article for DFF, mostly focusing on dynasty and redraft. I’ve published 377 articles without writing a single devy article thus far. However, that’s all about to change. Like most football fans, I tuned into the National Championship game, where Alabama defeated Ohio State 52-24. I noticed that Alabama was the far superior team, although even I knew that much from my cursory knowledge of college football. This game was the first college game I watched from start to finish all season, so I’m genuinely a new viewer. Even though I wanted to watch the game just for fun, I also got into some of the draft prospects. I know that Alabama and Ohio State are both loaded with incoming NFL talent, especially Alabama. Let’s jump into some of what I saw from a newbie’s perspective.
Somehow, college football season is close to complete. This will be the last installment of this weekly article for the season. The twists and turns of a tumultuous 2020 season will go down in college football lore. We must commend the players, coaches, officials, athletic directors, and university administrators who made this season possible for all of us to watch. While this year there will only be 26 bowl games played and many regular seasons were abbreviated due to the pandemic, they still gave the college football we so desperately needed.
Each week I will bring you the latest updates and NFL buzz surrounding college players that should prove to be integral to future fantasy success. I will utilize recent statistics, performance and film, and general “front office whispers” to compile the intel I share with you. My hope is to provide you with a leg up on your opponents. You will know which devy players to target in trades and/or in what range of draft picks (both NFL and fantasy drafts) you can expect these players to be selected.