Devy Analysis
This past season as a true freshmen Johnston led the Horned Frogs in receiving yards with 487. He was second on the team in receiving TDs with two. This may not seem like a lot but when you realize that TCU only passed for 196 yards-per-game. You see that Quentin commanded nearly a third of the teams receiving yards as freshmen (on a per-game basis). His production was strong enough for a “breakout” season as he comfortably eclipsed the 20% Dominator Rating many people use to classify a “breakout”.
In his true freshman season, Wilson caught 26 passes for 385 yards and five TDs. Within the context of the Ohio State offense, he accounted for 11.4% of their receiving yardage and 10.6% of their receiving scoring. This equates to an 11.0% dominator rating and an 11.3% adjusted dominator rating. Wilson also averaged 1.07 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout.
Bryce Young should be the unquestioned starter in 2021. He plays behind an offensive line that proves to be one of the best in the country year after year. He will undoubtedly be surrounded by the next wave of Bama stars. Young’s top receiving option should be John Metchie who recorded 55 receptions for 914 yards and six touchdowns last season.
Eric Gray began his career at Tennessee in impressive fashion, sharing the backfield before breaking out late in the season. He finished with 539 rushing yards and 115 receiving yards with 5 total TDs as a true freshman. This past season, he led the Vols with 772 yards and scored four TDs on 157 carries. He tacked on 30 receptions for 254 more yards and two TDs, eclipsing 1000 scrimmage yards. Gray was featured as a player on the rise in your author’s weekly draft stock seasonal article in October.
In his true freshman season, Olave caught 12 passes for 197 yards and three TDs. Within the context of the Ohio State offense, he accounted for 3.9% of their receiving yardage and 6% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 5% dominator rating and a 4.3% adjusted dominator rating. Olave also averaged 0.36 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout. His yards per catch average was 17.6, where above 16 is a statistically significant indicator for an NFL player’s deep-threat ability. The 2018 Ohio State team also had Terry McLaurin, Parris Campbell, K.J. Hill, and J.K. Dobbins, all current NFL players, with who Olave was competing for targets.
In his true freshman season, Pickens caught 37 passes for 552 yards and seven TDs. Within the context of the Georgia offense, he accounted for 19.2% of their receiving yardage and 30.4% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 24.8% dominator rating and a 21.5% adjusted dominator rating. Pickens also averaged 1.43 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout, within the context of the season one could argue that he did break out.
D.J. Uiagalelei, a 6’5”, 245-lb. five-star recruit, was the number-one-rated QB in the 2020 recruiting class. He only saw limited action in 2020 behind Trevor Lawrence, but showed enough to provide a glimpse of what 2021 could have in store. The future is bright for the young star as he should be the unquestioned starter heading into the 2021 season.
Isaiah Spiller is a 6’1” 225 lbs. running back that was a former four-star recruit. He was 247’s ninth-ranked running back in the 2019 class and the 23rd ranked player from Texas. Spiller entered the collegiate recruiting scene with notoriety and garnered interest from other Power Five programs before ultimately committing to the Aggies.
JT Daniels burst on the scene at USC starting as a true freshman, and, while not a stud, looked to be a solid enough player. Obviously, his accuracy was less than stellar and the offense struggled from time to time, but these growing pains aren’t unheard of from true freshman quarterbacks. Entering his second season at USC, there was hope that Daniels was ready to take the next step behind center and elevate his level of play. Halfway through the first game in 2019, USC found themselves scrambling for a replacement as Daniels went down with a torn ACL.
Behind Justin Herbert in 2019, Tyler Shough never really had much of a shot. In the shortened 2020 season he started every game for the Ducks completing 63.5% of his passes for 1559 yards and 13 touchdowns. Shough also showed he could get it done on the ground, rushing 66 times for 271 yards.
Kayshon Boutte is a 6’0” and 185 lbs. five-star wide receiver for the LSU Tigers. He was the WR2 and 24th overall prospect from the 2023 class. In his true freshman season, Boutte caught 45 passes for 735 yards and five TDs. Within the context of the LSU offense, he accounted for 23.5% of their receiving yardage and 20.8% of their receiving scoring. This equates to a 22.2% dominator rating and a 23% adjusted dominator rating. Boutte also averaged 1.75 yards per team pass attempt. While these figures do not surpass the 25% dominator rating threshold for a true breakout, within the context of the season one could argue that he did break out.
Kyren Williams is a 5’9” 195 lbs. running back that was a former four-star recruit. He was 247’s 24th ranked running back in the 2019 class and the sixth-ranked player from Missouri. Williams was an all-purpose stand-out in high school, helping lead his team to a state championship in 2018 with a state-championship game record of 289 rushing yards and 354 total yards.
As of now, Treylon Burks is a consensus top 5 WR in the 2022 class. I am very confident he will end up in my top 3. What will propel Burks up boards is his athleticism and size. With a frame very similar to D.K. Metcalf and speed of his own, Burks could be a big combine riser. Reports are Treylon has been clocked with a 4.4 40 which is not D.K. Metcalf fast, but fast enough to turn heads and get NFL coaches and GMs talking.
In 2019 Kedon Slovis took over after J.T. Daniels went down to injury and never looked back. Daniels has since transferred to Georgia. Slovis put up big numbers for a true freshman and immediately garnered attention because of it. Slovis’s numbers are a bit deceptive because he only played six games in 2020. It isn’t perfect, but if we extrapolate these numbers to match a traditional 12 game season, things look a bit better. He was on pace for 3842 yards and 34 touchdowns. These marks would’ve put him above all quarterbacks receiving 2022 first-round valuations. However, with this extrapolation, we see he was on pace for 14 interceptions as well. With three of his seven interceptions coming in his final game against Oregon, that 14 may not be as accurate as it seems.
Kevin Harris is a 5’10” 227 lbs. running back that was a former three-star recruit. He was 247’s 44th ranked running back in the 2019 class. When reviewing his high school tape, Harris was most likely overlooked for two reasons. He played at a smaller high school and his offensive line at his high school was very effective, minimizing both the need and opportunity for him to break tackles.
As a true freshman, David Bell achieved a breakout season. In 2019, Bell caught 86 passes for 1,035 yards and seven TDs. He also added another score on the ground, amassing 1,047 yards from scrimmage and eight offensive TDs. In the context of the Purdue passing attack, Bell produced 27.8% of the team’s receiving yardage and 24.1% of the team’s receiving scoring. These figures equate to a 26.0% dominator rating and a 27.1% adjusted dominator rating, both qualifying him for a breakout age of 18.8 years old. Bell’s 1.99 yards per team pass attempt fell just short of the 2.0 threshold that we like to see in wide receiver prospects.
Spencer Rattler is currently the odds-on favorite to win the 2021 Heisman Trophy. At 6’1”, 205 lbs. he is shorter than the average NFL quarterback, but that isn’t keeping him from being projected at a stop option at the position in 2022. Rattler was the top quarterback in the 2019 recruiting class but was forced to sit his freshman season behind Jalen Hurts.
Justyn Ross is possibly the best wide receiver to play for Clemson University, if not one of the best we have seen in the college game of recent memory. Better than DeVonta Smith. Yes, I said that and stand by it. He has the size (6’4”/205 lbs.) and despite his pedestrian 4.87 40 time, as soon as he straps on a helmet and pads, he takes it to a whole other level. The current NFL player I would most likely compare him to is another Clemson WR product, DeAndre Hopkins. His size, catch radius and just football instincts are second to none.
Spencer Rattler was the QB1 and 11th overall prospect coming out of high school. The five-star Arizona native chose to play for Lincoln Riley in Oklahoma. After sitting out for the 2019 season behind Jalen Hurts, Rattler was allowed to start during his redshirt freshman season in 2020. The 6’1” 205 lbs. quarterback is still developing, but we expect to see him drafted early in the 2022 NFL Draft.
At the time of writing, betting odds place Sam Howell as one of the top five players most likely to win the 2022 Heisman Trophy. With the departure of teammates Javonte Williams, Michael Carter, and Dyami Brown, the Tarheel offense faces an uphill battle. If Howell is able to put up similar numbers after losing several heavy hitters to the NFL, it will set a lot of people at ease that it was talent and not merely the situation that led to Howell’s success.
As a freshman, Breece Hall earned the Iowa State starting running back job. He ran for 897 yards and nine TDs on a 4.9 yards per carry average. He also showed off his pass-catching abilities with 19 catches for 207 yards and one TD. As a true freshman he accounted for 19% of the team yardage, and 19% of their touchdown production. Thus, he earned a 19% dominator rating, qualifying for a true freshman breakout at age 18.7 years old.
Jahmyr Gibbs produced early and often for the Yellow Jackets. In his first collegiate game, Gibbs had 126 yards from scrimmage and scored a TD both on the ground and in the air. He also returned two kickoffs for 93 yards. It was clear that the Georgia Tech offense was centered around getting Gibbs the ball in space. Gibbs rushed for 460 yards and four TDs on his 89 attempts. He had 5.2 yards per rush against the ACC defenders. Gibbs showed that he is an elite pass catcher in his freshman season. He caught 24 passes for 303 yards and three TDs.
Bigsby went viral in his third collegiate game when he had 146 yards on 20 carries. He became the Tigers workhorse back, despite their anemic Bo Nix-led offense. Bigsby battled injuries throughout the season, otherwise, his freshman stats would be even more impressive. Bigsby rushed for 834 yards and five TDs on his 138 attempts. He had an impressive 6.0 yards per rush against the daunting defenses of the SEC. Bigsby showed that he is a capable pass catcher, but not to the extent of being able to play outside in his freshman season. He caught 11 passes for 84 yards.
As a freshman, Bijan Robinson played in nine games, he was not utilized early in the season but took over as the primary ball carrier by the end of the season. He only rushed the ball 86 times, but he was efficient with his touches. Robinson finished with 703 yards on the ground for an average of 8.2 per rush. He found the endzone four times on the ground. Robinson proved to be a capable pass catcher with 15 catches. He turned those catches into 196 yards and two more TDs. Robinson had a dominator rating of 15% and an adjusted dominator rating of 17%, both qualifying him for a true freshman breakout at the age of 18.7 years old.
Heading into the 2021 season, Ohio State has one of the best-receiving corps in the country. On top of that, they have recruited top receivers the past few seasons resulting in a crowded wide receiver room. The Buckeyes will bring in three top recruits this upcoming season, and without losing any key players, questions about whether there are too many mouths to feed are flying. Undoubtedly some of these guys will have to bide their time, but that doesn’t mean that you should miss out on getting in on the ground floor.