In this article, I will take you through the top devy options that are eligible for the 2022 NFL Draft. We will look at their listed measurements according to their college programs as well as their projected 40-yard dash times. We will project 40-yard dash times by taking their high school combine testing results and adjusting them based on the expected positional progression as these players progress from being 18-year-old kids to 21-year-old NFL players. We will also use film analysis to tweak these projected times on a player-to-player basis. Finally we will look at players who tested similarly to create a superimposed range of outcomes for these players. Let’s dive in with the top options from the class of 2022.
Spencer Rattler – QB, Oklahoma
Rattler is an undersized quarterback, with Mahomes-level arm talent. Listed by the Oklahoma Football Roster at 6’3” and 210 lbs. equates to a BMI of 27.7. His most similar comparable player based on his size is Baker Mayfield, he also compared loosely to Cade McNown who was a first-round selection in the 1999 NFL Draft.
Rattler ran a 4.88-second 40-yard dash at his high school combine, adjusting for expected growth among quarterbacks we project Rattler to run in the 4.75-second range if he chooses to participate in the event. Some similar quarterbacks from an athletic perspective that were similar and found fantasy success are Drew Brees, Teddy Bridgewater, Jared Goff, and the aforementioned Baker Mayfield.
Breece Hall – RB, Iowa State
Hall is prototypical three-down running back for the Iowa Cyclones, standing at 6’1” and 220 lbs. based on the Iowa State Football Roster. This equates to a BMI just over 29.0, he ran a 4.6-second 40-yard dash at his high school combine, which based on his film review we would expect him to run in the 4.5-second range.
Based on his size, speed, and expected draft capital Javonte Williams, Josh Jacobs, and Knowshon Moreno are all solid comparable players at the position. A lot of Hall’s value will be based on landing spot, but based on these comps this is a player in devy that I would be selling for 2023 eligible running backs with more upside.
David Bell – WR, Purdue
The wide receiver who is taking over after dynamo Rondale Moore has progressed to the NFL is the 6’2” and 205 lbs David Bell. Bell has a proven production profile both with Moore active and sidelined, but lacks the athletic upside that a Rondale Moore possesses.
Bell who at 6’2” and 205 lbs. according to the Purdue Boilermakers Roster has a BMI of 26.3. He is expected, based on his film and high school combine testing to run a 4.5-second 40-yard dash has several solid player comparisons historically.
If you gather anything from this list of comparable players that includes Michael Gallup, Brandon Aiyuk, Josh Doctson, Sidney Rice, and Robert Woods is that he projects as a red zone specialist in the NFL that is lacking in the elite upside. Bell still could be a WR1 within the context of an NFL offense but will have to deal with a target allocation that will not reflect what he sees as a junior at Purdue in this upcoming 2021 College Football Season.
Isaiah Spiller – RB, Texas A&M
Standing at 6’1” and 225 lbs. according to the Texas A&M Roster, Spiller have a BMI of 29.7. He possesses prototypical NFL running back measurements and has shown his above-average pass-catching ability on film. Spiller’s comparable players offer much more upside than his 2022 NFL Draft competition in Breece Hall.
Spiller also has an abundance of athleticism compared to the aforementioned Hall, thus SEC legends Todd Gurley, and Nick Chubb are within his comparable players. If Spiller gets at least day two draft capital he should be an immediate value in dynasty, if he gets drafted in the first round of next year’s draft, he could instantly become a top-10 dynasty running back.
Sam Howell – QB, North Carolina
Howell is a tough study, the accurate but immobile quarterback does not have many solid comps based on his 6’1” and 220 lbs. stature. However, his weight is what throws everything off, his 28.8 BMI is very rare among 6’1” quarterbacks.
Among this list, Tagovailoa is the strongest comparison with all things considered, and Howell simply does not have the production profile that Tagovailoa has to fall back upon. We expect Howell to be a high-caliber draft pick in the upcoming draft, however, his lack of elite comps is making me hesitant to want to pay the price to go acquire him in devy leagues. He may be a player primed for a post-hype sleeper sophomore season as an NFL quarterback.
Garrett Wilson – WR, Ohio State
Wilson is a player who may not be a workout warrior and post stunning times during his NFL Combine or Pro Day but has been making highlight-reel catches since enrolling at Ohio State. The 6’0” and 188 lbs. wide receiver has not been known for having crazy wheels, but his vertical ability may surprise us next draft season.
I believe that coming off a sophomore season in which Wilson cracked the 30% adjusted dominator rating threshold, he will garner round one draft capital. Even still his physical and athletic comps are not super promising.
I expect Wilson to break the mold and become a productive NFL wide receiver, similar to Deion Branch and Randall Cobb, the rest of his value will be tied to his first-contract quarterback and their level of play. Luckily for Wilson, he projects as a later first-round draft pick than an early one, implying that he could still achieve first-round draft capital and be tied to an elite-level quarterback.
Treylon Burks – WR, Arkansas
Burks is a player who you circle on your draft sheet and write a single word, “athletic” next to his name. Burks figures to be the next D.K. Metcalf-level player whose athleticism alone can push them into the dynasty WR1 conversation. The 6’3” and 225 lbs. wide receiver finds himself in an elite cohort with his player comps, however, he does offer the potential that without draft capital he could never see the opportunities that garner him WR1 conversation.
Burks is expected to run at least a 4.45-second 40-yard dash next Spring, garners comparison to NFL legend Andre Johnson, however after that there is not a solid hit rate. There will be much debate come next offseason on whether Burks was limited by quarterback play at Arkansas, or if he is simply an athletic freak that could never figure out the finer points of being a wide receiver at the NFL level.
Eric Gray – RB, Oklahoma
Gray is a former Tennessee Volunteer who left the program after Jeremy Pruitt was fired and former UCF standout coach Jeff Heupel takes the reigns. Gray transferred from the SEC to Norman to play against the far inferior Big 12 defenses. Standing at 5’10” and 206 lbs. Gray is dangerously close to the sub 200 lbs. threshold that has deemed so many running backs ineffective at the NFL level. Gray ran a 4.57-second 40-yard dash in high school testing, so a 4.5-second flat time is more conservative.
As it turns out elite, just as Dalvin Cook turned out is within Gray’s range of outcomes. With both Cook and McCoy on Gray’s list of comps is very promising and deeming of selecting Gray at current cost could result in a big payout for devy players in 2021. Whether it’s via trade or startup devy draft pick, acquiring Gray at cost is a move that savvy devy players will be making throughout this season.
Kedon Slovis, QB, USC
This should be an easy one, a player from a program that has underwhelmed at the position since Carson Palmer with little to no athletic upside should be a Kyle Trask level prospect, no? Standing at 6’3” and 215 lbs. let’s see who comps to Kedon Slovis historically:
When your best comps are Jay Cutler, Sam Darnold, and Zach Wilson over the past 20 years we fade that player. Slovis is a player that we are fading on more accounts than physical comps, especially when you comp to a player names Anthony Dilweg.
Chris Olave – WR, Ohio State
Olave decided to forego the NFL Draft and return to Ohio State for his senior season. The senior wideout had a true breakout season last year as a junior. Olave believes that he could have a DeVonta Smith-like senior season that rises him into first-round draft capital next offseason.
Standing at 6’1” and 189 lbs. Olave has a BMI of 24.9 With a presumed 4.5-second 40-yard dash Olave does not have many successful receivers in his comp list.
While this does not look promising, if we loosen the clamps on his measurables, Chad “OchoCinco” Johnson becomes one of the comps. Johnson recently came out in support of DeVonta Smith stating that he regularly played at around 170 lbs. Becoming an elite NFL wide receiver is within Olave’s range of outcomes, but he is more closely linked to Chris Brown and Derek Hill historically.
George Pickens – WR, Georgia
Pickens is a player that I would not advise devy players roster on any team. We were not convinced by his flukey Five-star rating as a high schooler. We were not convinced by his pseudo breakout as a freshman when he failed to surpass a 22% adjusted dominator rating based on one strong final game. We were not convinced after he marginally improved to a 22.5% adjusted dominator rating as a sophomore. We certainly won’t be convinced to roster him based on the ACL tear that will cause him to miss all of the 2021 season. Let’s see if the 6’3” and 200 lbs. wide receiver can convince us with his comparable players.
Standing at 6’3” and 200 lbs. which equates to a BMI of 25 Pickens is an undersized possession receiver. He ran a 4.73-second 40-yard dash in high school, so projecting him to improve it to a 4.6 coming off a torn ACL is an aggressive projection. Pickens likely will come out in 2022 rather than returning for his redshirt junior season in 2022, so even though it’s nearly impossible for him to gain first-round draft capital let’s see all of the players to get first-round draft capital while failing to crack into the 4.5-second range.
Though we hope for the best for Georgie Pickens the human being, we are also trying to win fantasy football championships. If you want to make a high-risk, high reward play I’d suggest playing the Mega Millions over drafting Georgie Pickens.
This wraps up our devy player comps for the upcoming 2022 NFL Draft eligible most expensive to acquire lists. If you take anything away from this article it is that there is a lack of elite options coming into the NFL in 2022, and even this list is subject to players opting to return to college and become a part of the 2023 NFL Draft Eligible class.
Disregarding the quarterbacks, because their chances for success at the NFL level are determined at the cerebral level in the 2022 NFL Draft class we have two players who have elite in their range of outcomes, those two are Garrett Wilson and Isaiah Spiller. Eric Gray and Breece Hall project to be productive NFL starters and the remaining players on this list based on comps will be replacement level players at the NFL level, whose values will be based on draft capital, landing spot, and positional competition on their NFL team.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
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