In devy leagues, we are all looking for not only the generational talents at the collegiate level that will be NFL stars when they go pro, but we are also looking for the hidden gems that go under the radar but will be league winners someday. While generational talents like D.J Uiagalelei, Bijan Robinson, and Kayshon Boutte are all well known in the fantasy community this article will try to determine breakout players based on their on-field play and analytical profiles.
When looking at this data for small sample sizes, most teams have only played one game thus far, we have to take this data with a grain of salt. It is very difficult to recognize exactly if a player who ran for over 200 yards and three TDs was able to do so by winning their matchups, or if their team simply outmatched their opponent at every position.
With this in mind, we will be shifting this article from Devy Breakouts of the Week to Devy Breakouts of the Month. This will likely limit the number of pseudo breakouts that we see. It is also important to remember that in-season you cannot acquire devy players that are not rostered. Therefore, this series will have a strong emphasis on the trade value of assumed rostered devy players.
DEVY BREAKOUT PLAYER OF THE MONTH – SEPTEMBER
This is a player that many people expected to break out as a true freshman, but not many people believed that he would be able to do so this early on. For September’s devy breakout player of the month, we have a true freshman running back at a blue-blood Power 5 school who is already a top-10 running back in raw scrimmage yardage. This player is averaging 10.6 yards per touch, and despite getting 20% of the team’s opportunities, is still making up 26% of their team’s total yardage. They are also handling the load when it comes to scoring, making up 38% of their team’s offensive touchdowns. Overall, he has a 29% adjusted dominator rating (adjusted from 50% yardage and 50% touchdowns to 80% yardage and 20% touchdowns) and is averaging 2.9 adjusted yards per team play. These metrics are good for being 24th and seventh in the nation, despite just being a freshman.
This is no normal freshman though. This is a player who is an 18-year old who stands 5’10” and weighs 215 lbs. according to his team roster. He does not have a verified 40-yard dash from a high school combine but tells reporters that he can run the 40-yard dash in around 4.3-seconds. These are identical physical measurements to the 2021 1st Round selection, Travis Etienne. He also has room to add bulk to his frame in the coming three years until he eventually declares for the NFL Draft. His early play has already gotten him a NIL deal to become one of #ArbysRBs
The devy breakout player of the month for September without further ado is Ohio State’s TreVeyon Henderson.
The five-star prospect, according to 247 Sports, is the class of 2024’s top overall running back and was a top-25 prospect overall. Check out ESPN+ Eli’s Places season one, episode four for a very interesting look at how the prospect rating systems work and where the concept was derived. The five-star prospect is coming off a 282 yard and three-touchdown game against Tulsa but has also managed to score a touchdown in each of his first three career games. His 277 rushing yards broke Archie Griffin’s single-game freshman record. Griffin won two Heisman Awards during his time at Ohio State. His current adjusted dominator rating is beyond the threshold for a breakout player, giving Henderson a breakout age of 18.9-year old. He is an older prospect for his class, but by the time he is eligible for the NFL Draft in 2024, he will still only be 21.5-years old.
https://twitter.com/BillyHeyen/status/1439358060754083848?s=20It is difficult to come away with actionable analysis on a true freshman with only three games under his belt. However, if we look at the trajectory of similar players like Bijan Robinson and Tank Bigsby last year, the conclusion is that Henderson will be nearly impossible to acquire come next offseason. He will likely be a top-five devy pick in startup drafts, meaning that this valuation is not subject to a depleted player pool from past drafts. What this means is you are going to need a top pick to acquire Henderson and randomized draft orders will do you no justice. Go and buy Henderson in all leagues that he is already rostered via trade, now before his price skyrockets. It already has done such, but similar to BitCoin the potential is uncapped.
Not many sources will be able to accurately value a 2024 draft pick for Dynasty, non-Devy leagues. However, they will be less valuable than the players in the 2023 NFL Draft class. However, overall the 2024 class is going to be weaker than its predecessor. This is because outside of TreVeyon there are not many “sure-things”, and we are never going to call a freshman a sure-thing to hit at the NFL level. However, from a Devy confidence level, this is as strong as were going to get for a player who is superior to the rest of their class. In summary, Henderson is already valued highly in the Devy community, but you are still going to want to buy high now and let the value continue to rise until he becomes NFL Draft eligible.
Thank you for reading my article! If you enjoyed it, keep an eye out for my future articles. You can also follow me on Twitter @DynastyDiagnos1 and reach out with any questions, comments, or ideas you’d like me to explore for a new article.
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