In my previous offseason reaction articles, I’ve looked at a variety of offseason moves and how they relate to dynasty formats. Here’s the full list of links:
Stefon Diggs trade to the Bills
Anderson signs with the Panthers
Funchess signs with the Packers
Similar to Perriman and Funchess, here’s a deep dive into Eric Ebron, another volatile receiving weapon who has had a rocky NFL career so far. While Ebron will turn just 27 years old on April 10th, he has been in the NFL since 2014. Here is a six-year snapshot of Ebron’s career receiving stats.
| Year | Games Played | Targets | Receptions | Yards | TDs | Fantasy Finish | Fantasy PPG (5 games min.) |
| 2014 | 13 | 47 | 25 | 248 | 1 | TE40 | TE47 |
| 2015 | 14 | 70 | 47 | 537 | 5 | TE13 | TE20 |
| 2016 | 13 | 85 | 61 | 711 | 1 | TE14 | TE12 |
| 2017 | 16 | 86 | 53 | 574 | 4 | TE13 | TE16 |
| 2018 | 16 | 110 | 66 | 750 | 13 | TE4 | TE4 |
| 2019 | 11 | 52 | 31 | 375 | 3 | TE27 | TE20 |
If I had to describe Ebron’s prevailing narrative, I would say that most dynasty owners consider Ebron to be a complete bust, who then had one outlier season in 2018 before fading back to normal in 2019. However, that narrative isn’t real. Ebron was consistently mediocre from 2015-2017, finishing as a high-end TE2 in each year. Both 2018 and 2019 are outliers compared to that stretch of middling performances. To determine the truth about Ebron, we need to go back and look beyond the top-line stats.
Career Beginnings
The Lions drafted Ebron with the 10th overall pick in the 2014 NFL Draft. New head coach Jim Caldwell wanted a dynamic weapon for quarterback Matthew Stafford and thus added Ebron to the team. After being drafted, Ebron replaced Brandon Pettigrew as the Lions’ starting tight end immediately. The Lions barely used the tight end position in 2014, though, as Ebron finished just sixth on the team in targets. Golden Tate and Calvin Johnson dominated the Lions’ receiving market share, and three running backs exceeded Ebron’s 47 targets. But considering that most rookie tight ends make no impact, Ebron performed well.
Ebron continued to progress in 2015. He became the fourth target on the Lions behind Johnson, Tate, and receiving back Theo Riddick. The Lions threw the ball 632 times, the fourth-most in the NFL, allowing the team to support multiple fantasy weapons. Ebron almost doubled his yardage and receptions and scored five touchdowns in 2015. While Ebron was still not a fantasy force, he was a usable tight end streamer and finished around the border of the TE1 range. Once again, Ebron had not been a bust to this point in his career. He flashed in year one and progressed in year two.
Then, in year three, Ebron took another step forward. Johnson surprisingly retired after the 2015 season, but the Lions replaced him with the combination of Marvin Jones and Anquan Boldin. Ebron finished behind Tate, Jones, and Boldin in targets but still recorded more targets, receptions, and yards than in 2015. Bizarrely, Ebron only scored one touchdown, but that might have been due to Boldin’s red zone ability and his eight touchdowns. Ebron did miss a few games, but was the TE12 in points per game and had established himself as Detroit’s long-term answer at tight end.
Ebron came into 2017 as a 24-year old who had a three-season upward progression. Additionally, the Lions still had Stafford at quarterback, Caldwell as the head coach, and Jim Bob Cooter as offensive coordinator, all of whom had demonstrated their commitment to Ebron in the past. Boldin had also retired after 2016, allowing Ebron to slide in as the third option behind Tate and Jones. Therefore, Ebron had all the makings of a fourth-year breakout as a top NFL and fantasy tight end.
Unfortunately, none of that happened for the Lions or Ebron. While Ebron still served as the third target behind Jones and Tate, he significantly regressed from 2016. Ebron had just one more target in three more games played, and his catch percentage dropped from an excellent 71.8% to a paltry 61.6%. He did catch four touchdowns as compared to just one in 2016, but he declined in both yards and receptions. Also, the most significant warning sign was Ebron’s decline in snap count. In 2016, Ebron’s lowest snap percentage was 72.2% all season and played 80% or more of snaps in nine of 13 games. In 2017, Ebron’s highest snap percentage was 71.8% in Week 1, and he played less than half of offensive snaps in eight of 16 games.
Move to the Colts
After 2017, the Lions fired Caldwell, who originally had drafted Ebron. Ebron’s rookie contract had expired after 2017, and the Lions had to decide whether to keep him on his fifth-year option for $8.25 million or release him. Unsurprisingly, the Lions decided to part ways with Ebron, allowing him to hit the open market. Ebron signed a 2-year, $13 million contract with the Colts, pairing him with quarterback Andrew Luck. Even though Luck had just missed the entire 2017 season, most still considered him to be a top real-life and fantasy quarterback.
In some ways, Ebron and the Colts were a perfect fit, as the Colts had no established receiving weapons outside of number one receiver T.Y. Hilton. The Colts had signed Ryan Grant in free agency to be the number two receiver and drafted Nyheim Hines to be the receiving back. They did also have tight end Jack Doyle and third-year receiver Chester Rogers, but there was little clarity outside of Hilton in this offense.
However, a perfect storm hit for Ebron in 2018. Luck had a fantastic comeback season, throwing for 4,593 yards and 39 touchdowns. Doyle struggled all season with injuries, playing only six games, allowing Ebron to step up as the Colts’ lead tight end. Also, while Hines had a nice season, neither Grant nor Rogers performed particularly well. Ebron finished second on the Colts behind Hilton in receptions, targets, and yards, and he led the team in touchdowns. Even though Ebron was so touchdown-dependent in 2018, he still had a breakout season and was a fantasy lifeline for anyone who picked him up on the cheap that offseason.
As we all know, a perfect storm can always happen in reverse. Just like everything had gone Ebron’s way in 2018, nothing went his way in 2019. On the eve of the season, Luck retired, and Jacoby Brissett became the Colts’ starter. This change was an immediate downgrade, as the Colts went from one of the best starting quarterbacks to one of the worst. Even though the Colts had no number one receiving option due to Hilton’s injury-riddled season, Ebron still couldn’t break out of the muddled mess left behind. Doyle also returned as the Colts’ starting tight end and had more targets, receptions, and yards than Ebron. In Week 12, Ebron suffered an ankle injury that eventually forced him to injured reserve for the rest of the 2019 season. Ebron and the Colts seemed to disagree on the nature of this and some of his other injuries, and it was clear that Ebron would not return to the Colts for 2020.
Ebron as a Steeler
Therefore, Ebron hit free agency once again this offseason and signed a 2-year, $12 million contract with the Steelers. He joins an offense led by quarterback Ben Roethlisberger and with a plethora of offensive weapons. The Steelers have JuJu Smith-Schuster, Diontae Johnson, and James Washington at wide receiver and Vance McDonald at tight end. Additionally, they have Jaylen Samuels as a pass-catching back. Given Ebron’s contract, I expect Ebron to overtake McDonald for the TE1 role on the team and produce accordingly.
However, I’m not sure how fantasy-relevant that role will be. I currently rank Ebron as my TE22 for 2020 redraft, so he’s a back-end TE2 in that format. While he’s still young enough to have dynasty upside, I wouldn’t advise investing in Ebron. Like most free agency signings, I think Ebron is a good sell candidate if anybody is excited by this landing spot. Ebron’s ceiling is probably his 2015-2017 performance, which is a high-end TE2. While that could provide some value to fantasy owners, it’s not something I’m looking to buy. Other tight ends in his value range like Chris Herndon, Jace Sternberger, and even his old teammate Jack Doyle provide far more upside than Ebron.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
