Intro/Methodology
In this weekly piece, I will bring you some risers and fallers from a dynasty lens. Whether it’s injuries, performance, or value, I want to discuss how players have moved around. Based on the week’s events, I’ll give some advice on how to act on the market’s movement, whether it’s buying, selling, or holding.
I won’t limit myself to talking about any specific players or teams because I want to have the freedom to discuss whatever is most relevant. Also, of course, there are more risers and fallers than those I’m listing. However, it’s impossible to cover every single one of them, as dynasty values change weekly for many players. With that said, let’s jump into the risers first, followed by the fallers.
Risers
Tee Higgins
Higgins is the real deal. After doing nothing in Week 1, he’s had a significant role from Week 2 forward. Higgins has relegated John Ross and Auden Tate to irrelevance, and he looks better than teammate A.J. Green.
At this point, Higgins remains the third target in the passing game behind Green and Tyler Boyd. For the season, Boyd has 34 targets, Green 33, and Higgins 22. However, Higgins has 12 receptions for 152 yards and two touchdowns on his targets while Green has a miserable 14 receptions for 119 on his looks.
Since Higgins hasn’t yet broken out in terms of raw numbers, now is your last chance to buy Higgins in dynasty leagues. I currently rank Higgins as my 73rd overall player in 1QB dynasty leagues, just behind DeVante Parker. Higgins also has rookie sensation Joe Burrow as his long-term quarterback. Green will be gone after 2020, and Higgins will become Burrow’s top outside target. I love Higgins moving forward.
Damien Harris
Harris emerged from nowhere in Week 4. Late in the week, the Patriots activated Harris from injured reserve while placing Sony Michel on injured reserve. Harris stepped directly into Michel’s early-down role, taking 17 carries for 100 yards. The Patriots continued to mix in Rex Burkhead as the change-of-pace back and James White as a pass-catcher, but Harris was the lead rusher.
While I don’t believe Harris will ever completely consolidate this backfield, he could command the early-down work as he acclimates to the offense, forming a two-way committee with White. Harris only played 31% of the offensive snaps in Week 4, behind both Burkhead and White, but I expect that to change moving forward. I doubt Michel ever regains his early-down job, as Harris looked far better than Michel in his first-ever start. Harris immediately moves into dynasty RB3 territory while Michel is now virtually worthless.
Ke’Shawn Vaughn
It’s hard to remember now, but Vaughn was a first-round dynasty rookie pick back in May. Vaughn fell behind Ronald Jones during training camp and also spent time on the COVID-19 list. The Buccaneers then signed veterans LeSean McCoy and Leonard Fournette, pushing Vaughn down to fourth on the depth chart.
Vaughn played no offensive snaps in Week 1-3, sitting behind Jones, Fournette, and McCoy. However, in Week 4, Vaughn received his chance at playing time. Fournette missed the game with a high ankle sprain, and McCoy suffered an in-game injury. Jones then dropped multiple passes, forcing head coach Bruce Arians to turn to Vaughn as the third-down back.
Vaughn only had three carries for four yards, but he caught two of three targets for 22 yards and a touchdown. I expect both Fournette and McCoy to miss the Buccaneers’ Week 5 game versus the Bears, as they play on Thursday night. Therefore, Vaughn will see playing time as the backup to Ronald Jones.
I think McCoy is washed up, and hopefully, Arians and the Buccaneers realize that. If Vaughn plays well on Thursday night, he should have a role moving forward. If you can acquire Vaughn for a couple of third-round rookie picks or even a late-second, I would try to get him on my team before the Thursday game.
Darnell Mooney
I’m almost ready to declare that Mooney is the Bears #2 WR over Anthony Miller. Through four weeks, Mooney has 13 receptions on 20 targets for 145 yards and a touchdown. In contrast, Miller has only nine receptions on 19 targets for 133 yards and two touchdowns.
However, more importantly, Mooney leads Miller in snap share, 57.3 to 52.2%. After Week 1, Mooney has played on 60% or more of snaps each week, with his snap count increasing in every game. Miller virtually solely participates in 3WR sets, as he’s become a dedicated slot receiver.
I’m not quite at the point of ranking Mooney ahead of Miller in dynasty leagues, but they’re close. I moved Mooney about 30 spots up and Miller down about the same amount, placing them within 20 overall spots of each other in my dynasty rankings. If Mooney continues to outplay Miller, he’ll continue to rise as Miller keeps dropping. Mooney is a solid stash in dynasty leagues, and he’s become waiver wire gold for anyone who added him before the season.
Fallers
Julio Jones
Jones aggravated a previous hamstring injury in the Falcons’ Week 4 game against the Packers. Jones had already missed Week 3 with the same injury, so this setback presents a significant concern. Considering that Jones turned 31 years old in February, it won’t take much to cause his dynasty value to plummet.
In Week 1, Jones was his usual WR1 self. He caught nine of 12 targets for 157 yards, although he didn’t catch a touchdown. However, Jones only caught two of four targets for 24 yards in Week 2. He then struggled through limited action in Week 4, only catching four receptions for 32 yards.
At this point, Jones is a declining dynasty asset, and the warning signs are beginning to appear. Jones comes in at 44th overall in my 1QB dynasty rankings, but he’ll drop with each week he misses. Remember that given Jones’ age, his production no longer matters. His dynasty value will fall either way. You can’t sell him with this latest injury, but once he returns to the field, I would try to get him off my dynasty team immediately.
Kenyan Drake
Drake hasn’t made any significant impact in 2020. Even after the Cardinals retained him on the transition tag, he hasn’t become the workhorse RB1 we all hoped. Drake has 67 carries for 254 yards and a touchdown through four games, averaging only 3.8 YPC. Weirdly, Drake has 16.8 carries/game in 2020, more than the 15.4 carries/game he had in 2019 with the Cardinals.
However, Drake’s main issue is his lack of involvement in the passing game. He only has five targets all season, with passing work going to Chase Edmonds instead. I hope that Drake can turn it around, but he’s already 26 years old. That’s ancient for a running back, so his dynasty value has vanished no matter what. I’ve dropped Drake multiple rounds in my dynasty rankings, but there’s little you can do with him. Nobody wants to buy Drake right now at anywhere near his value. Hold onto him and hope for a bounce-back.
Daniel Jones
Yes, the Giants and Jones have had a tough schedule to open the season. They’ve also lost Saquon Barkley and Sterling Shepard to injuries, so Jones has to play without two of his top offensive weapons. However, despite those challenges, Jones has been terrible thus far in 2020.
Jones has completed 61.1% of his passes through four weeks, throwing two touchdowns compared to five interceptions. He’s also taken 14 sacks and fumbled three times, losing two of them. Jones has improved as a rusher, though, averaging 34.3 yards/game versus 21.5 yards/game in 2019.
The Giants don’t have a viable alternative on their 2020 roster, with journeyman Colt McCoy as the backup to Jones. Therefore, Jones will play the entire 2020 season as the starter, no matter how poorly he plays. However, the Giants are already 0-4. If Jones continues his awful performances, the Giants could have a chance at Trevor Lawrence, Justin Fields, or Trey Lance in the 2021 NFL Draft.
I believe that Lawrence is the best quarterback prospect to enter the NFL Draft in recent memory, better than either Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck. If the Giants have the opportunity to select Lawrence, they will do so. Therefore, there’s a chance that Jones could lose his starting job in 2021. Keep that in mind when valuing Jones in dynasty superflex leagues.
Jones opened the season as a QB1 in my superflex rankings, but he’s now down at QB18, right behind Jared Goff and Baker Mayfield. To be fair, I’m less concerned about Jones than Sam Darnold with the Jets. Jones has only had two years to play, and the Giants will have coaching continuity from 2020 to 2021, unlike the Jets with Adam Gase. I don’t think the Giants will move on from Jones in favor of Fields or Lance, so the Giants would have to be the worst team in the league for Jones to lose his job.
Dwayne Haskins
Speaking of quarterbacks losing their jobs, the Washington football team officially sent Haskins to the bench. They named Kyle Allen as the starter and Alex Smith as the backup, relegating Haskins to third-string. I never saw anything from Haskins that I liked in the NFL, and I don’t believe he ever gets another starting job.
Washington retains Haskins’ rights under his first-round rookie contract through 2022. I have no idea if they’ll keep him as a backup through then or try to trade him. Either way, Haskins’ time as an NFL starter is over. He’ll never receive another shot at a starting job without injuries in front of him.
I believe Washington will acquire a new quarterback for the 2021 season, although they can retain both Allen and Smith if they choose. However, Haskins is done. He’s now in the same situation as Josh Rosen, and he’s solely an afterthought in dynasty superflex leagues. I still have Haskins as my QB36, just in case Washington changes their mind. Don’t buy into Haskins, though. He’s barely even worth a third-round rookie pick at this stage.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Karp. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
