Welcome to the Dynasty Market Sweep, a weekly recurring offseason article focusing on substantial value disparities in the dynasty market consensus. The very nature of the instantaneous fantasy news feed has made the dynasty market more reactionary and volatile than ever before. Once the proverbial petrol is poured and Twitter fingers snap to ignite, player values can burn to the ground overnight.

Value changes of this nature cause a ripple effect across the market. For every step up the ladder, someone must move down and vice versa.

This will not be your typical “Buy/Sell” advice column. We are going to hone in on distinct seismic shifts in the dynasty community, provide an explanation as to why these changes are happening, and tell how you can exploit said changes to benefit your roster. If a player drops or raises drastically in value, we may suggest a transaction. However, the primary goal is to understand how to adjust to the market to avoid getting swept up in the whirlwind of over-reaction.

ADDRESSING THE AGE CLIFF

Youth vs Established Production wages an infinite battle in the dynasty theory debate halls. Every position and player has a prime where their experience and talent converge at a peak. Understanding when that peak meets a precipitous cliff is essential to maintaining a progressive building process.

PFF’s Ian Hartitz documented the percentage of players (by position) to finish in the top 12 by years of experience over the last decade.

This gives us an intriguing baseline to gauge the assumed age cliff for each position. For example, we can see that running backs usually break out early and maintain their production for 3-4 years but meet a steep drop-off in production after year six. On the other hand, quarterbacks seemingly get better with experience and will maintain production value throughout their careers.

As the NFL Draft approaches and an influx of young talent enter the player pool, ageing veterans get pushed down the rankings. With rookie mocks and startup drafts in full swing, we are beginning to see the value of said veterans fall on the trade market.

One of the many strategies in managing a consistent juggernaut in dynasty leagues is to trade off established and productive veterans during the offseason before that presumed age cliff arrives. The goal in mind with this system is to acquire an accruing asset (i.e. draft picks or young talent) before you are left “holding the bag” on a declining player. 

Value swings of this nature can work both ways. When the market is desperate to sell, it can often open up attractive buy windows for savvy managers looking for inexpensive yet established players. 

There is risk in every transaction. Sometimes the best moves are the ones we don’t make. Knowing when to strike or stay patient on a value dip due to a misconception in youth>production can yield fantastic value. 

Father Time is undefeated. We are just trying to beat the clock.

NOTABLE MARKET CHANGES

RISER

Matthew Stafford QB (LAR)

Position Rank: QB 11 > QB 15

Overall Rank: 40 > 51

Matthew Stafford Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut

Matthew Stafford has done nothing but deliver against the odds his entire career. After being relegated to the putrid basement of the bottom-dwelling Lions for 12 seasons, Stafford is now flourishing as the leader of the Super Bowl-bound Rams, and if you’re into sports betting you can check out Super Bowl Odds here.

In 2021, Stafford had career-best numbers in completion percentage (67.2%) yards per attempt (8.1) and matched his career-high with 41 passing touchdowns. He finished as the QB11, averaging 20.1 PPG.

The Rams focused on an all-out air attack with Stafford at the helm, passing on 56.6% of their offensive plays (39.1 attempts per game). The veteran signal-caller showed no signs of decline in arm strength, leading the NFL in completed air yards with 2831.

Stafford is an excellent example of quarterbacks being virtually immune to the dreaded age cliff managers fear in other positions. As long as they produce at a high level, quarterbacks are like platinum in Superflex leagues. Youth will often win out at all positions, but set-it-and-forget-it-QBs will always hold premier value.

Despite being 34 years old and staring down his 14th season in the NFL, Stafford’s price continues to rise amidst his stellar playoff run.

Value Adjacent Players (OVR):

Dalvin Cook RB (MIN)

Stefon Diggs WR (BUF)

D.J. Moore WR (CAR)

2022 Early 1st Round Draft Pick

Saquon Barkley RB (NYG)

Chris Godwin WR (TB)

Value Adjacent QB:

Trey Lance (SF)

Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

Justin Fields (CHI)

Russell Wilson (SEA)

Deshaun Watson (HOU)

Jalen Hurts (PHI)

RISER

Trey Lance QB (SF)

Position Rank: QB 8 > QB 10

Overall Rank: 16 > 24

Trey Lance Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut

On the opposite end of the age spectrum, we have 49ers’ rookie quarterback Trey Lance. Although Lance was limited to minimal field time in his inaugural season, he maintained strong QB1 value throughout. With the 49ers eliminated from the playoffs and the Jimmy Garoppolo era meeting an imminent end, Lance’s value has seen a noticeable increase.

A relatively unknown prospect, Lance played just 19 games throughout three seasons at North Dakota State. Even in a limited sample size, Lance’s electric athleticism and big-play ability were highly coveted by the 49ers.

Lance is the undeniable future of the franchise. His plus athleticism coupled with head coach Kyle Shanahan’s run-first offensive approach can produce immeasurable upside from a fantasy perspective.

The cost of acquisition is likely too bold for a player that has yet to establish himself as a consistent producer at the NFL level. However, if Lance can live up to the hype, that cost may be well worth the asking price.

Value Adjacent Players (OVR):

Kyle Pitts TE (ATL)

Javonte Williams RB (DEN)

Cooper Kupp WR (LAR)

A.J. Brown WR (TEN)

Deebo Samuel WR (SF)

Jaylen Waddle WR (MIA)

Value Adjacent QB:

Kyler Murray (ARI)

Dak Prescott (DAL)

Trevor Lawrence (JAX)

Lamar Jackson (BAL)

Justin Fields (CHI)

Matthew Stafford (LAR)

FALLER

Davante Adams WR (GB)

Position Rank: WR11 > WR6

Overall Rank: 30 > 19 

Davante Adams Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut

The Packers completed their season steeped in heartbreak and disappointment after being eliminated from the playoffs on their home turf by the 49ers. The state of the franchise is now in turmoil, with both Aaron Rodgers and Davante Adams set to become free agents.

Adams will be entering his ninth season with an uncertain future ahead of him. As we highlighted above, only 4% of wide receivers in their ninth season have finished top-12 at the position.

Currently valued as the WR11, Adams’ value may soon be pushed out of the WR1 tier altogether once the NFL Draft and free agency conclude.

If managers continue to devalue Adam’s production and talent, the all-pro receiver will become a must-buy candidate on the dynasty market. Although he is nearing a supposed age cliff, Adams still ranks amongst the top receiving talents in the NFL.

Value Adjacent Players (OVR):

Justin Fields QB (CHI)

2023 Early 1st Round Draft Pick

J.K Dobbins RB (BAL)

Joe Mixon RB (CIN)

Austin Ekeler RB (LAC)

Value Adjacent WR:

Tee Higgins (CIN)

Tyreek Hill (KC)

D.K. Metcalf (SEA)

Diontae Johnson (PIT)

D.J. Moore (CAR)

FALLER

Derrick Henry RB (TEN)

Position Rank: RB 16 > RB 12

Overall Rank: 57 > 24

Derrick Henry Dynasty Profile – KeepTradeCut

Derrick Henry saw his most drastic dip in value after suffering a broken foot in Week 8 against the Colts. Immediately after the injury, Henry’s stock plummeted from the RB6 to the RB12 but remained in the top 50 players. As managers adjust for the upcoming draft, Henry has fallen outside the RB1 tier and the top 50 players overall.

Prior to his unfortunate season-ending injury, Henry was surging towards legendary status as the first back-to-back 2000 yard rusher in NFL history. I profiled the impossibilities of Henry’s incredible feat in “Big Dog Built Different.” 

Seven running backs had crossed the 2,000-yard threshold before Henry. All seven succumbed to lacklustre seasons or injuries in the following year. Unfortunately, Henry would be no exception.

Nearing his seventh season in the NFL, at 28 years old, it is unlikely we ever see Henry return to his record-setting form. With that being said, managers should not cast away Henry as a viable producer and high-end asset on their rosters. 

Even though Henry missed eight games, he finished ninth overall in rushing with 937 yards. He is still a physical nightmare for defenders when on the field. His game is not predicated on speed and agility. Henry’s running style focuses on patience, vision, and ferocious violence unmatched by anyone in the league.

Do not expect the 6’3”, 250 lbs.-bruiser to fade completely. He is an outlier of size and strength that will not decline in the same manner as other players at the position. 

Henry still has gas in the tank and tread on the tires, and I expect him to keep truckin’ through defenders for a few more seasons.

Value Adjacent Players (OVR):

Travis Kelce TE (KC)

T.J. Hockenson TE (DET)

Michael Pittman WR (IND)

Mac Jones QB (NE)

Zach Wilson QB (NYJ)

Value Adjacent RB:

Saquon Barkley (NYG)

Nick Chubb (CLE)

Travis Etienne (JAX)

Elijah Mitchell (SF)

David Montgomery (CHI)

Managing a dynasty roster is about building long-lasting success in the chaotic and unpredictable landscape of fantasy football. The idea should be to give yourself as many assets/bargaining chips as possible, so when you move all-in, the deck is stacked in your favor.

“We are card counters at the blackjack table, and we’re going to turn the odds at the casino.”

Much respect, thank you for reading. If you have any continued thoughts and would like to share, I am always available for an open conversation on Twitter: @PsychWardFF or Instagram: @psychwardff.

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For previous articles in this series click here: Dynasty Market Sweep, Dynasty Market Sweep: Episode 2.