Dynasty Build or Dynasty Maintenance?
The building or maintenance of a dynasty team can be such a fragile project. One early missed pick can quickly change the direction of your team. Such as using a second-round startup pick (1QB) or the 1.01 in rookie drafts on a player who doesn’t project to be worth the price. I am talking about Najee Harris.
Harris was selected 24th overall by the Pittsburgh Steelers who were lacking any sort of production from their backfield. But the bigger part of this is that he became a first-rounder, the 19th running back to do so since 2010. This is great for Harris because between 2010 and 2019, 43.8% of first-round running backs achieved at least an RB5 finish, and 75% achieved at least an RB12 finish.
The Harris Profile
But we need to look deeper into Harris’ profile to get a better understanding of who exactly he is. In 2020 Harris was eligible to declare for the draft and get drafted amongst the likes of Clyde Edwards-Helaire, Jonathan Taylor, J.K. Dobbins, D’Andre Swift, Antonio Gibson, and company. But he didn’t. He chose to stay at Alabama for his age-22 season in hopes that he would be able to boost his draft stock (spoiler; he did). The other piece that goes into this is that using my >25% dominator threshold as breakout criteria, he hadn’t accomplished that before he returned for his senior season. This means that Najee Harris wasn’t an early declare and broke out after 22 years old despite being a first-round pick. Who else fits these criteria?
Unfortunately, we don’t get any sort of sample size as no one fits these criteria aside from Najee Harris himself. The closest is Doug Martin who never broke out. If we expand this to first and second-rounders as well as those who broke out after 21 rather than 22, we find a sample size we can use.
This is not a great comparison list for Najee as it shows that his floor isn’t too much of a safe one. Unfortunately, these aren’t the only red flags that exist in Najee’s profile. He not only didn’t break out before his age 22 season, but he didn’t even eclipse a 10% dominator until his 21-year-old season. There was a lot of nothing that up until his 21-year-old season he was able to turn around. For example, not surpassing just 1 yard per team play or not having a receiving dominator greater than 1.2% until he was 21. How does his 7.38% 20-year-old dominator compare to other first-round running backs?
That is not ideal, for lack of better words.
Other Red Flags?
Aside from his prospect profile, there are even red flags that exist within the realm of dynasty value. He is already 23.3 years old and hasn’t even played a down in the NFL. For reference, Josh Jacobs is 23.4, Ronald Jones is 23.9, Devin Singletary is 23.8, and Kerryon Johnson is still 23. These are all players who have already played multiple seasons in the league. We won’t use this information to argue against Najee’s prospect profile–although we could–but, from a value standpoint, this is not great. Running backs are already fragile when it comes to age, and a rookie coming in that’s already near apex age isn’t great for retaining or gaining value. If you don’t believe this is peak age, here is some research to prove otherwise.
To get a final idea of Harris’ profile, he graded out as an UPSIDE first-round running back. For how great his draft capital was, the UPSIDE grade tells us that there are a lot of other holes dragging him down. What other first-round running backs exist?
Would it surprise me for Najee to eclipse a fringe RB1 season with the volume he’s expected to be given? No. Is he worth a second-round startup pick or the 1.01 of rookie drafts? Also no. When spending such high value picks that have major implications on your dynasty team’s outlook you should be drafting for a high ceiling that can exceed the price spent to acquire, as well as looking for sustained high value. Does Najee project to be both statements? Absolutely not. While others may see this pick as a sexy rookie first-round running back, we don’t. We’re playing Chess not Checkers.
Until the next article, follow me on Twitter @dynasty_im!
