Are you a fellow better looking for good action this weekend? Look no further than this article as I will list my favorite props and my picks for each game this weekend. So take a seat, check NFL betting lines, log into your favorite sportsbook app and let’s win some money!
#4 Jaguars @ #1 Chiefs
Line: 8.5
Over/Under: 52.5
This weekend the fourth-seeded Jaguars go to Arrowhead to take on the first-seeded Chiefs in what Vegas projects to be a lop-sided affair. Trevor Lawrence is coming off an impressive comeback against the Chargers but the same type of occurrence will not be possible against the Chiefs. They are a skilled team that knows how to close games out. If Lawrence makes multiple mistakes again, the Jaguars will have no shot. My pick for this week is the Chiefs -8.5. I would also take the Under on the points. The Chiefs’ defense steps up in the playoffs and this stage might be too big for Trevor Lawrence. We saw almost every over hit last week so I feel this is compensation, we need to fade that, and take the under.
Trevor Lawrence O1.5 Pass TDs -110
I like Lawrence to throw two touchdowns in this game. In the playoffs, the stars shine the brightest and Lawrence is the star of the Jags. He has a capable offense, with capable weapons, and a good receiving running back. This plus the Chiefs likely getting an early or large lead will force the Jags into panic mode and to throw often. Lawrence also threw two touchdowns last time these teams faced.
Isiah Pacheco O54.5 Rush Yards -114
Pacheco has been the hot new toy on the ground for the Chiefs this year, with McKinnon dominating the receiving game. Pacheco has eclipsed 55 rush yards in eight of his last nine games. And with the Chiefs favored to win this game they should be able to run more often. I love this pick and if you want to put it in a parlay tease it down to 50+ at -140 for a solid leg.
#6 Giants @ #1 Eagles
Line: 7.5
Over/Under: 48.5
In the NFC we have a big divisional battle between the tough-out cinderella team and the one-seed that dominated the regular season. The Giants made the upset that everyone saw coming last week when they beat the Vikings, this opponent will be much more difficult than that. For this game, I am taking Giants +7.5 though. The Giants are well coached, they play a style of football that forces close games, they have a good defense that can generate pressure and Daniel Jones is playing very well. Plus divisional games are closer, as we saw with Bills vs Dolphins and Ravens vs Bengals last week even though they both had backup quarterbacks in the game. I am also taking the under for this game. Again, I think this will be a hard-fought, divisional battle with a lot of defense. I could see a 24-17 game like we just saw with the Bengals vs Ravens.
Saquon Barkley Anytime TD +100
If the Giants are going to score, Saquon will be involved. He has scored in 11 games this year and in their first playoff game, he scored twice. Saquon is that dude, he is a guy where everyone in the stadium knows it is going to him and he still scores. Getting this at +100 feels very good.
Saquon Barkley O25.5 Receiving Yards -114
Like I said before, for the Giants to win this game Saquon will need to be involved. He had five catches on six targets last weekend and gained 56 yards. The Eagles have a good pass rush so Jones will need to rely on Saquon out of the backfield. If you agree and think it is going to be Saquon day feel free to parlay these together for +246 total odds.
DeVonta Smith O64.5 Receiving Yards -114
The Eagles can be hard to predict, especially in the passing game. This is because they have so many capable weapons but also can run the ball well. I think this game will be competitive and when a team has multiple useful assets I like to pick the WR2 or TE in my bets. Smith’s last six games have gone for 102, 64, 126, 113, 115, and 67. Five of six went over this mark and one was a single yard short. I like DeVonta to eclipse 65 yards this weekend in a competitive game where he will be needed.
#3 Bengals @ #2 Bills
Line: 5.5
Over/Under: 48.5
This is it, the game we all wanted and were waiting for. This figures to be a close, high-scoring affair between two teams that both have very powerful offenses and also not the greatest defenses. I feel like the Bengals have a real shot to win this game and if not they will at least keep it close. So, I am gonna take the Bengals +5.5 as well as the over. If you remember the Chiefs/Bills divisional game from last year’s playoffs I would expect a similar game between these two teams.
Josh Allen O1.5 Pass TDs -188 and Joe Burrow O1.5 Pass TDs -122 (Parlay for +183)
I love the lines for these QBs and I think they would be great paired together. Both of these teams love to throw the ball and are not scared to throw on the goal line. If this game is high-scoring like I think it will be then these QBs will be putting on a show and there will be multiple pass TDs from either side.
Tee Higgins O66.5 Receiving Yards -114
See back to the section on DeVonta Smith. Higgins could be a WR1 for many teams, so while the Bills have to focus on defending Ja’Marr Chase, Tee can be a game-wrecker on his own. These picks also all tie into the shootout narrative I am pushing. I like my picks to be correlated so I like most of the WR overs.
Stefon Diggs O80.5 Receiving Yards -114
Diggs is Josh Allen’s go-to weapon on first down, second down, and third down, in the Red Zone, anywhere and everywhere. Diggs is the man. He can go deep, win short, run after the catch, and make contested catches. The playoffs are about the stars and Diggs is a star. If you are feeling really lucky I would tease him to 100+ receiving yards for +172 odds and let that ride. This is going to be a big game.
#5 Cowboys @ #2 49ers
Line: 3.5
Over/Under: 45.5
For the final matchup of the week, we have two storied franchises facing off for a trip to the NFC title game. The Cowboys have been shaky but had a great performance vs the Bucs in Wild Card Weekend. Meanwhile, the 9ers have been on an absolute tear, winning their last 11 games and many were dominating performances. So for this matchup, I see two great defenses, an experienced QB labeled a choker, and a rookie QB playing very well in a forgiving system. I think this game could bring out the worst in both of them. Dak Prescott will need to do a lot to win this game and that will be tough vs this stellar San Francisco defense. But, I also could see Brock Purdy getting exposed by the vaunted Dallas defense. Purdy has only faced Miami, Tampa Bay, Seattle, Washington, Las Vegas, and Arizona. None of which have defenses that make you scared. I do think he has been playing very well though and the system will continue to help a ton. My pick for this game is 49ers -3.5 along with the under.
Christian McCaffrey O105.5 Rush + Receiving Yards -114
CMC has become the heart of this offense, his usage is kind of inconsistent between heavy rushing and heavy passing so I like this combo line because it covers both. CMC is also able to break a long gain on any play, all it takes is one 40+ yard run or reception and this line should hit. Even without that, he is a grinder and can get you there with multiple 10-15 yard gains.
Brandon Aiyuk O55.5 Receiving Yards -114
This offense has a lot of unique weapons. CMC is the best pass-catching RB in the league, Deebo is the best rushing WR in the league, and Kittle is a significant receiving threat but also a monster blocker. This can make it tough to predict their game-to-game usage in a single category. But, Brandon Aiyuk is a pure receiver and is easily their best pure receiver. Since Purdy took over Aiyuk has passed 56 receiving yards in five out of seven games, and in one of the seven Purdy took over mid-game and Aiyuk got 46 yards which was close.
Wow, you read all the way through! Thank you, I really appreciate you using your time to enjoy my content. If you would like to talk to me about my article or ask me any generic dynasty or trade questions. You can find me on Twitter @ChrisMiles1017, DFF Draft Director. Shoot me a DM, they are always open. Come join the #DFFArmy where I provide #Dynasty, #Redraft, and #Analytics content for @DFF_Dynasty. Thank you so much!
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