The 2023 offseason promises big changes to the running back landscape in the NFL. Over the next couple of weeks, I’ll go over my predictions for the running back situations of each team, as well as the corresponding fantasy implications. You can check out Part 1 of this series, where I looked at the AFC East.
Dallas Cowboys
Current Starter: Ezekiel Elliott + Tony Pollard
The Dallas Cowboys had one of the most dynamic running games of the 2022 season, with Tony Pollard and Zeke Elliott being the prototypical change-of-pace duo that many teams aspire to recreate. The combination of Pollard’s explosive big-play ability with Elliott’s reliability in between the tackles and in short-yardage situations has proven incredibly potent.
However, with Pollard set to be a sought-after free agent this offseason and the Cowboys already sinking a hefty sum to their longtime workhorse, the idea of the Cowboys splurging more money on the running back position on a long-term deal for Pollard feels unlikely. Unfortunately for Dallas, they will likely lose their more dynamic back to free agency.
The Cowboys are prime candidates to draft a running back on Day 1 or 2 of the draft. With Pollard on the way out and Elliott regressing significantly this past season, the Cowboys are in need of an injection of youth to the running back position. Said rookie will be dropped into a high-powered offense, and possibly instantly thrown into fantasy relevance as they gradually overtake the lead role from the aging Elliott. The upside of whoever this rookie ends up being will likely be massive due to the situation and is worth monitoring for dynasty rookie drafts as well as redraft leagues.
Projected 2023 Starter: Day 1/2 Rookie + Ezekiel Elliott
Washington Commanders
Current Starter: Brian Robinson Jr. + Antonio Gibson
The Commanders selected Brian Robinson Jr. in the third round of last year’s draft, just two seasons after spending a third on Antonio Gibson. Both players seemed to pair well in a split backfield this season, with Gibson’s receiving ability serving complement to Robinson’s hard-nosed Ron Rivera style of running. The Commanders were able to lean on their run game heavily late in the season to put together some solid defensive wins, and their duo at running back was a solid part of that. The Commanders could potentially add another back to employ even more of a committee but are unlikely to be big buyers or drafters at the position this offseason, with many other positions outweighing any concerns at running back. I project the Commanders to stick with their current running back rotation potentially with another role player, with Robinson having some FLEX upside due to high volume and red zone touches and Gibson being a decent stash with receiving upside. Depending on the rookie taken, there could be some value in dynasty rookie drafts in Washington.
Projected 2023 Starter: Brian Robinson Jr. + Antonio Gibson + Rookie/FA
Philadelphia Eagles
Current Starter: Miles Sanders
The Philadelphia Eagles are one of the more challenging teams to predict at running back this offseason. Miles Sanders is coming off of a career year, posting season highs in yards and touchdowns as well as being the Eagles’ first 1,000-yard rusher since LeSean McCoy. However, Sanders is an impending free agent this coming offseason- and with the Eagles as stacked and young as they are, giving Sanders a big contract when there may be teams with more money to spend seems unlikely, and the Eagles are potentially a team with a void at running back this offseason.
Due to this, many mocks project the Eagles to spend early draft capital on an elite back in this year’s draft. With their defense already loaded and their offense well stacked, replacing Sanders with an elite young talent would elevate this team from the juggernaut it already is. Regardless of who is toting the rock in Philly, if it’s a rookie or a re-signed Sanders, they’ll have massive fantasy value with top-12 upside. In a potent offense alongside Jalen Hurts, A.J. Brown, and DeVonta Smith, the Eagles’ 2023 starter will have plenty of touchdown opportunities and an elite role.
Projected 2023 Starter: Rookie + Veteran Free Agent
New York Giants
Current Starter: Saquon Barkley
Saquon Barkley’s resurgence has been one of the best storylines of the season. One of the most elite running back prospects of all time, Barkley’s past two seasons have been frustrating and nerve-wracking for dynasty managers as he has battled injury and inefficiency in a bad offense behind a terrible offensive line. This season was a complete turnaround, with Barkley looking like his elite rookie form. Showing incredible burst coming off injury, Barkley had an OPOY-level start to this season before cooling off a bit as teams began to gameplan around the threat he posed. Still, he finished fourth in rushing this year. Barkley was also a significant receiving threat, hauling in 57 receptions. Barkley has been the soul of the Giants’ offense all year long, playing with remarkable intensity and leadership. The Giants would be hard-pressed to let Barkley walk this offseason, and I believe they’ll shell out whatever sum Barkley demands this offseason. Barkley will enter 2023 as a late first-round pick in redraft, and a top 5-8 back in dynasty. Still a young talent with lots of gas in the tank, Barkley is an easy value to smash in dynasty startups and will remain an elite RB1 for the next couple of years.
Projected 2023 Starter: Saquon Barkley
Thanks for reading! Keep an eye out for the next installment of “Predicting the 2023 RB Carousel”. Follow my Twitter @bensprinkler and take a look at some more recent articles on DFF to learn the game and dominate your leagues!
