If you are new to DFS, a Primer is available here. Full Appendix available at the bottom for any terms not understood here. Welcome back to another week of DFS with Doug. No bye weeks so we should have a bunch of high totals and a fun slate. Well, that is not true, unfortunately, but even on the sloppiest of slates, there are people out here earning real money with DFS. We have a lot to get to so let’s get started.
Week 7 Report Card
A new section this week, report card from the previous week. Looking back at the week and reflecting on what we did right and what we did wrong is how we get better.
Cash Lineup
H2H ITM%: 61%
H2H ROI: 9.09%
Double Up/(50/50) ITM%: N/A
Double Up/(50/50) ROI: N/A
The fact that I got any money back when I didn’t play Travis Kelce and I didn’t late swap into Jaxon Smith-Njigba after the D.K. Metcalf news is incredible. It was not the best week overall but being profitable in cash helped with some damage control. I did not play any double-ups since I played a bit more tournaments this week.
Single Entry
ROI: -100%
This lineup was obviously dusted right away. This was for a 19,000ish-person field so I needed to be a bit different here. I achieved that with my primary stack of Watson double stacked with a JT bringback. Once Watson went out this lineup was dead in the water. We built in a secondary correlation with Keenan Allen and Travis Kelce but we were already out of cash by the late window.
MME: (20 Max)
ITM%: 15%
ROI: (-55%)
Best Lineup
This lineup did fairly well, it was a late swap, but not a good one. After D.K. Metcalf was declared out I wanted to increase my JSN exposure in tournaments so I swapped down from Courtland Sutton and the Cardinals D/ST to JSN and the Packers D/ST. Sutton outscored JSN and the Cardinals D/ST outscored the Packers D/ST so the swap ended up being a poor one. The best lineups were all Mahomes and Kelce lineups so this one was dead for 1st but it at least 5x’d its entry fee. The secondary correlation between Mike Evans and Drake London is a lot better if London gets that touchdown where he was flipping and spinning.
Highest Totals
No totals even above 47 this week despite no bye weeks this week. We do have a pair of games with a 47 total and a big favorite though. This means they have a high implied team total which is certainly useful. We have the Patriots @ Dolphins and the Chiefs @ Broncos as our highest totals on the board.
Top Stacks
Patrick Mahomes (KC): $8,400 @ Denver
We finally had a ceiling game from Patrick Mahomes this past week. Mahomes will be quite popular and despite me mentioning him here, I plan to be a bit underweight on Mahomes this week. My expectation is everyone will see how Mahomes played last week and see Denver near the bottom in all defensive categories and will just put him in every lineup. To quote Lee Corso, “Not so fast my friend!” This Broncos defense will rank near the bottom in everything thanks to the 70-burger hung up on them by Miami wrecking the curve, but they have started to generate some pass rush and play a bit better. The ceiling is there for Mahomes in any matchup though so if you do want to jam a Mahomes lineup, I cannot fault you.
Lamar Jackson (BAL): $8,100 @ Arizona
Lamar also was cooking last week, but it may be overlooked by how good Mahomes was. The matchup against Arizona is one we love to attack in DFS and could be even better if Kyler Murray is a surprise starter this week. A Kyler Murray-led Cardinals team is likely to provide much more punch back and force the Ravens to keep their foot on the gas pedal.
C.J. Stroud (HOU): $6,300 @ Carolina
I should perhaps put Jalen Hurts ($8.2K) as my other top stack, but you already know he is good at football. The more interesting quarterback to discuss is C.J. Stroud. He has been simply brilliant this season. Nico Collins ($5.5K), Tank Dell ($4.9K), and Dalton Schultz ($3.9K) are very inexpensive stacking options as well. Plus you can play the best WR in fantasy football, Adam Thielen ($6.6K) as your bringback.
Top Plays
Christian McCaffrey (SF): $9,200 vs. Cincinnati
In 18 games with the 49ers, McCaffrey has 21 total touchdowns. CMC is the complete package as a fantasy football running back. He gets a ton of rushing volume, catches the ball out of the backfield, has big play upside, and gets the work in the redzone. I’ll keep paying up for McCaffrey until he is in the $10K range and may still do it then just because it’ll be a lower-owned CMC at that price.
Travis Kelce (KC): $8,400 @ Denver
Check Twitter before the game to see if Taylor Swift will be in attendance, I do not have that knowledge at this point. All jokes aside, play Kelce as often as possible in DFS. Even if he doesn’t crush from a FPTS/$ perspective, he can give you a 20-point edge at a position that cannot be made up anywhere else. In every format of fantasy football, he is a cheat code.
Value Plays
Michael Gallup (DAL): $3,400 vs. Los Angeles (N)
We have a huge positive regression candidate here in Michael Gallup. He is averaging 7 targets per game the last four weeks including 10 last week but has only managed 5 receptions the last two weeks. He could very well find himself in some cash lineups and may be a bit chalky but will provide some salary relief for you to play guys like Tyreek Hill ($9.5), CMC ($9.2K), and Travis Kelce ($8.4K)
Jalin Hyatt (NYG): $3,100 vs. New York (A)
So there is fast then there is something else. Hyatt is something else. He has legit track speed. There are stories of him in training camp going over 24 MPH. He is not getting a ton of volume so you need him to catch a long touchdown but that is very possible with his speed. He may have low ownership thanks to a matchup against a stingy Jets secondary but that just means if he catches one he will separate you from a lot of lineups. Gallup is the safer play but Hyatt has the higher ceiling.
Cash Game Core
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN): $8,100 @ San Francisco
I do not claim to know exactly how the pricing algorithm works for Draft Kings, I just know when someone is too cheap. Ja’Marr Chase is too cheap. It has been a weird year for the Bengals but I’m going to trust the talent here. There is also quite a bit of value on the slate that makes paying $8.1K for a tier-one WR quite easy to do. Despite their reputation, the 49ers secondary has been gotten a couple of times this season so I am not afraid of the matchup.
Isiah Pacheco (KC): $6,100 @ Denver
The price was good last week and this is the same price. While the Broncos defense has been better, Pacheco did just fine against them last time. He has scored 13.4 points each of the last five weeks and 15.8 or more in four out of five. The floor is fantastic here and exactly what I want to slot into my running back slot in my cash lineups.
Trey McBride (ARI): $2,800 vs. Baltimore
He was starting to get more and more run last week, now with Zach Ertz out with an injury, it’s all arrows up for McBride. Last week he was a fun tournament play, but this week he will be used in cash for me. I have said before, but I do not like playing chalky cheap tight ends in tournaments, they have way too much volatility to warrant that high of ownership. In cash though, we are fine eating the chalk here on the cheap tight end and using those savings on other positions. I will make an exception to play McBride if he is correlated with other players in the same game.
Value Stack
Sam Darnold (SF): $4,300 vs. Cincinnati
Here we are in the year 2023 talking about Sam Darnold in DFS. What a time to be alive. If Brock Purdy clears the concussion protocol I like Purdy as a play as well. With the information I have available to me at the time of writing, it appears that Sam Darnold will be the starter for the 49ers this week. I know you don’t want to click Darnold, but the difference in price tag between Darnold and Mahomes is the same as the difference between Christian McCaffrey and AJ Dillon/Najee Harris. Speaking of McCaffrey, one of the very few RBs I will stack with my quarterback in a lineup. Darnold unlocks a lot of options in building and will likely be a cash play for me this week as well.
Low Owned Plays
DeVonta Smith (PHI): $6,700 @ Washington
His teammate at wide receiver, A.J. Brown ($8.0K) will be one of the most popular plays on the entire slate, and for good reason. I am not telling you not to play AJB, I’m saying if you need to add a bit of leverage to a mostly chalky lineup then DeVonta Smith may be the way to go. He has been extremely frustrating the last few weeks from a season-long perspective. I am all too aware of this as he is the player I have the most shares of in Dynasty formats at 58% of my Dynasty rosters. The talent is still there though and many will be scared off after a couple of rough weeks.
Dameon Pierce (HOU): $5,300 @ Carolina
I am hoping with how many really good and obvious plays there are at running back that he remains under the radar. People are already catching on that Stroud is a great play this week so hopefully that momentum keeps Pierce ownership at a minimum. Game script should be extremely favorable, and the Panthers defense gives up the 2nd most fantasy points per game to opposing running backs. If he gets 100 yards and a touchdown that would be at least 19 points in Draft Kings scoring thanks to the 100-yard bonus. At this price that would be a smash play.
Gut Play of The Week
Chris Olave (NO): $6,400 @ Indianapolis
Those in the know about Chris Olave know that he has had a fine season so far but could very easily be a lot better. Olave currently leads the league in unrealized air yards at 579. His season has been lacking efficiency despite a great target share and a ton of air yards. If the efficiency spikes for just one week, he could completely crush a slate. The matchup is very juicy, and the price isn’t too high. He won’t be super owned, but he will also not be a massive contrarian play either.
Conclusion
We do not have any crazy high totals, but there are some talented football players available for us to build lineups with this week. Running back has a bunch of solid plays preventing any of them from becoming too chalky in tournaments, which is nice. There are different ways to go about lineup builds this week, so mess around with different configurations before lineups lock at 1:00 PM EST. Also monitor any potential trades. For example, if Derrick Henry is traded then Tyjae Spears ($4.7K) becomes a massive value but very chalky. Good luck, and if this article helps you take home some big money, give me a shout on Twitter, I would love to celebrate your success.
Thanks so much for reading, If you want to discuss more reach me on Twitter, find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, DFS, Sports Betting, Devy, and IDP. Annual Subscribers also get access to our discord server where you can get access to our entire staff!
