With six NFL teams on a bye this week, we have a smaller-than-usual Sunday morning slate and thus a smaller player pool to work with. This slate is also missing some good offenses due to them playing evening games. To be completely blunt, this slate is very unexciting, but there is some opportunity to make some good lineups and make some money.
Highest Totals
Totals are meager this week, lending to the feeling of this slate being very shallow. The highest total is only 47.5, which is the Chargers vs. Chiefs game. We also have four games with totals of 40 or below. With totals that low across the board, we must hold our nose for the cold water with some of our plays this week.
Top Stacks
Patrick Mahomes (KC): $8,300 vs. Los Angeles (A)
We may as well start with the only game with a total north of 45. Justin Herbert ($8K) is a fine play for a very similar reason. The Chiefs have been playing a more boring brand of football this season. Defense and a lot of underneath passing. Mahomes has been average from a fantasy perspective thus far during the season. At some point, you have to believe that Mahomes will have a game where he goes nuclear and puts up 35-plus fantasy points. What better week than the week he plays against the Chargers whom he has had shootouts in the past?
Josh Allen (BUF): $8,200 @ New England
The biggest worry with playing Josh Allen this week is that the Patriots fall so far behind so quickly that the Bills can simply take the air out of the ball. However, after a poor performance from Allen in primetime last week, I could see him trying to put on a show. His ceiling is completely slate-breaking and he has reached it a couple of times this season already. The Patriots’ defense can be formidable, but Josh Allen is completely matchup-proof.
Geno Smith (SEA): $6,000 vs. Arizona
The matchup has Geno Smith popping as a massive value in projections. His ownership could be high but might be held in check by how popular Kenneth Walker III ($7K) will be. The matchup is quite juicy here against a Cardinals defense that has struggled to stop much of anything this season. He has some obvious stacking partners in DK Metcalf ($6.8K) and Tyler Lockett ($6K) but I would also include Jaxon Smith-Njigba ($3.9K) in that group. The JSN breakout game is going to happen at some point, I want to be one of the guys rostering him when it does.
Top Plays
Cooper Kupp (LAR): $9,500 vs. Pittsburgh
Rumors of Kupp being washed were greatly exaggerated. Since returning he is averaging over 10 targets a game and we know what kind of ceiling he is capable of. He is pricey so you will need to punt off at some other spots for the extra salary, but you will get your money’s worth with Cooper Kupp. Despite more competition for targets from rookie Puka Nacua, Kupp has shown he is still the alpha to this Rams offense.
Josh Jacobs (LV): $7,400 @ Chicago
Jacobs will end up being extreme chalk on Sunday. The matchup against a very poor Chicago run defense combined with the Raiders QB situation could lead to a lot of volume against a very bad run defense. He could also benefit from a backup quarterback playing it safe and dumping the ball off to the running back more as opposed to taking risks and throwing the ball down the field. His best game of the season came with Aidan O’Connell under center against the Chargers. In that game, Jacobs had 11 targets that he converted into 8 receptions, massive in Draft Kings PPR scoring.
Value Plays
Josh Palmer (LAC): $4,800
Since the Mike Williams injury, Palmer has seen a bump in targets. He is clearly working ahead of the rookie Quentin Johnston and has received a decent target share in the games after Mike Williams was injured. He has ran really poorly on those targets, however, positive regression could be incoming. The game environment should lead to lots of passing volume for the Chargers so this could very easily be a spot for Palmer to cross at this low price.
Trey McBride (ARI): $2,600
We are finally starting to see McBride eat into the snaps of Zach Ertz ($3.2K) and begin receiving some targets. Tight end is a complete wasteland if you are not playing Travis Kelce ($8K) so paying down to nearly the minimal salary while still having some upside is really enticing to me. If he even has a game like last week with 4 catches for 62 yards, you would be more than happy with that from this price tag.
Cash Game Core
Kenneth Walker III (SEA): $7,000 vs. Arizona
When the Seahawks drafted Zach Charbonnet, the fantasy community let out a collective panic about Ken Walker moving forward. As it turns out, Walker would be just fine. He has absolutely crushed this season. Over the first five games for the Seahawks, Walker has managed to score six touchdowns and has scored double-digit fantasy points each week. He also has some big play upside in his skill set that could easily result in a long touchdown to drive the hammer home. The matchup and likely game script here are also phenomenal.
Isiah Pacheco (KC): $6,100 vs. Los Angeles
One of the biggest slights against Pacheco all offseason was his lack of use in the passing game. Well, that has changed a bit this season. Through the first six games of the season, Pacheco is averaging a hair over three targets a game. This might not sound like a lot but it has highly improved his floor in PPR scoring. When building cash game lineups we care a lot more about floor than ceiling. He is viable in tournaments as well but like most cash game running backs, he will be very chalky in tournaments.
Myles Gaskin (LAR): $4,400
Zach Evans (LAR): $4,000
Royce Freeman (LAR): $4,000
This is such a messy situation. However, if we get some information telling us who is likely to play the most snaps then that player becomes extremely viable. Right now, Evans is projected as the lead back but everything is very speculation-based at this point. If you want to just fade this situation to avoid the mess I cannot fault you for that.
Value Stack
Deshaun Watson (CLE): $5,700 @ Indianapolis
The last couple of weeks with Watson out has been super weird. The matchup is one we like to attack though. The Colts defense has struggled quite a bit this season against passing attacks. The last game we saw Watson was perhaps the best one he has played in a Browns uniform against another week pass defense in the Tennessee Titans. His stacking partners are very reasonably priced with Amari Cooper at $6.1K, Elijah Moore at $4.2K, David Njoku at $3.4K, and even Donovan Peoples-Jones at $3.2K.
Low Owned Guys
Aaron Jones (GB): $6,800 @ Denver
Season-long managers rostering Aaron Jones have been extremely frustrated by his start to the season. The limited reps from him coming back from an injury to then miss the following week has left people gunshy on Jones. Hopefully, the bye week has given him the proper time to fully recover and give us some reasonable volume. The Packers medical staff is known for bringing players back slowly so what has happened the last couple of weeks is not out of character for that group. If we can get Jones back with no restrictions, the matchup is exploitable as we have seen before this season.
Diontae Johnson (PIT): $5,000 @ Los Angeles (N)
With fewer games on the slate, every player is played a bit more. Simply put, there are fewer options. Because of this, we have to get more creative with our contrarian plays. All reports from the Steelers suggest no restrictions for Johnson for the upcoming game and people might want to see him in action before they are willing to click his name for their DFS lineups. If we get really lucky we might even get to end his statistically unreasonable touchdown drought.
Conclusion
A bit of a sloppy slate this week with some of our favorite offenses either on bye weeks or playing in island games. This could be a week with much lower cash lines than normal. If you happen to stack a game that far outscores its total then you could be moving into a new tax bracket. This will likely be a slate where you have to leave your comfort zone and make some uncomfortable plays if you want to win big.
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