If you are new to DFS, a Primer is available here. Full Appendix available at the bottom for any terms not understood here.
Bye weeks are officially upon so the slates will begin to be slightly smaller going forward. Week 5 still has 10 games on it so plenty of room for some value. There are also some situations to monitor that we lack definitive answers for at the time of writing. From Jonathan Taylor signing his new deal in Indianapolis to Cooper Kupp’s confirmed return, pay attention to every nugget you get over the weekend before you build your lineups on Sunday morning. And it’s never too early to start looking downstream at NFL Week 13 odds.
Uncertainty
Last week had some major curveballs with some QB news on the day of opening up some cheap QB options. This week we have Javonte Williams, Tee Higgins, and Jonathan Taylor as game-time decisions. This is before we even discuss what is happening with Cooper Kupp. Each of the injured players has a “next-man-up” that will become popular should they miss this game. I cannot give you all the information on Friday (when I write this article) you will have access to on Sunday Morning. Always be willing to be fluid as news comes in over the weekend. This article is meant to be a guide for a general approach and players that are good plays with all the information I have now.
Highest Totals
We have two games with a total over 50 this week, Eagles @ Rams and Chiefs @ Vikings. While it would be easy to expect the weapons from these games to be chalky, the prohibitive costs prevent us from easily stacking either game or grabbing pieces from both. I would advise deciding early in a build which of the expensive players you want and then trying to build around them with some value plays. If you want to stack these games you will need to get very creative in finding some value so the rest of your lineup has some upside as well.
Quarterback
Patrick Mahomes (KC): $8,200 @ Minnesota
Clicking Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce, and then Justin Jefferson gives you the three best players at their respective positions in the highest total game of the week. It also leaves you very little salary to play with from that point. Luckily no Chiefs WR is expensive and they are all interchangeable. Rashee Rice (3.6K) is picking up some steam in DFS circles as he is starting to get a bit of a larger target share. If you want a cheaper bring-back, Jordan Addison (5.3K) and K.J. Osborn ($4.1K) are fine options. You could also play T.J. Hockenson (6.5K) instead of playing Kelce or even playing a double tight end lineup to get different.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): $7,100 vs. New York (N)
Miami has the highest implied team total on the slate this week at 29.5, and for good reason. They have been a juggernaut on offense this season. After getting slapped around by the Bills, this is a great “get-right” spot for Tua and company. The wheels seem to be coming off the cart for the New York Giants. The biggest concern for playing Tua and his pass catchers is if the game gets away from the Giants and the Dolphins take the air out of the ball. Tua currently projects as the most popular QB on the slate by a healthy margin.
Daniel Jones (NYG): $5,800 @ Miami
I know I just mentioned Tua, but this is a heck of a way to gain leverage on those lineups. Nobody wants to click the name Daniel Jones after what we saw happen on a national TV game. The NFL is a crazy league though and wild stuff happens weekly. Playing a guy like Jones also opens up a lot of salary to play some of the expensive options like Tyreek Hill (9.0K), Justin Jefferson (9.4K), and Travis Kelce (7.6K).
Matthew Stafford (LAR): $5,600 vs. Philadelphia
So this may be the trickiest lineup build to explain. Puka Nacau (7.7K) has finally had his price go up based on the volume he has received this season. Enter Cooper Kupp (8.6K) into the equation and at that price it becomes very hard to make the stack. This creates a unique possibility of playing a naked Stafford (no stacking partner) or a mini stack (only one player on his team) and having it be optimal even if Stafford has a ceiling game. At $5.6K he could score 25 points and spread it out evenly enough for none of his pass catchers to be in the optimal lineup. The Eagles’ defense is also not as scary of a matchup as we anticipated before the season. Sam Howell gave this defense trouble just a week ago.
QB Strategy
While I may do a bit with some of the expensive quarterbacks, I may be trying to take advantage of some of the cheaper options this week. Love the plays like Daniel Jones, Matthew Stafford, Joshua Dobbs ($5.2K), Ryan Tannehill ($4.9K), and even Zach Wilson ($4.9). These guys will be a lot less popular so I have already made my lineup different, and they allow me the extra salary to play the more expensive players on the slate.
Running Back
Bijan Robinson (ATL): $7,700 vs. Houston
Bijan has shown a high floor, but we have yet to see the ceiling game we know he is capable of. This week he gets to take on a Houston defense that has struggled against running backs. We have already seen the passing game volume with at least five targets in each game this year. If we can just get some goalline work or a long touchdown, we have a monster game out of Bijan. He will be a reasonably popular play, but this is some good chalk that I am happy to eat.
David Montgomery (DET): $6,600 vs. Carolina
The Dynasty community has let out a collective sigh when we see the usage of Jahmyr Gibbs. Instead of continuing to try and guess the breakout game, maybe it’s time to accept things the way they are right now. David Montgomery is getting most of the rushing volume and all the goalline work. The matchup and game script should trend toward him getting plenty of high-value opportunities near the red zone.
Alvin Kamara (NO): $6,300 @ New England
It worked last week…. Sorta? Alvin Kamara managed to get 14 targets and 13 receptions and somehow didn’t break the slate. Better days are ahead. He will be much more popular this week, but at only $100 more than last week, we are okay with it. I expect as Derek Carr’s shoulder continues to heal that we will have less check-down work for Kamara but perhaps more efficiency going forward.
De’Von Achane (MIA): $6,100 vs. New York (N)
The efficiency of Achane through these last two weeks will regress somewhat to normal levels, but after showcasing his big play ability, the Dolphins have to get him more touches. If you had played him the last two weeks then you are probably rolling in the dough at this point. The secret is out, but with the high implied team total for the Dolphins in this matchup, I would not be surprised if Achane crushes again.
Breece Hall (NYJ): $5,400 @ Denver
Every year we find a defense that we want to pick on in DFS, this year it is my beloved Denver Broncos. They can’t stop the run, they can’t stop the pass, and they gave up a basketball score to Miami. Instead of crying that my team is awful, I want to make some cash to wipe away my tears. Head coach Robert Saleh also stated this week that Breece Hall will no longer be on a pitch count. It may not matter against a Broncos defense that is easy to run on, but if Hall gets 20 touches, we could be looking at a monster game. I expect his ownership to be pretty high on Sunday since almost every other good option at running back costs upwards of $6K.
Running Back Strategy
I have done this strategy before and will likely implement it here again. I plan to just play these chalk RBs and try to get different elsewhere. I have already mentioned that I like the low-salary quarterbacks this week, this is where I will spend some of my extra money. Other backs I like include Derrick Henry ($7.5K), Joe Mixon ($6.4), and D’Andre Swift ($6K). If you play any of the RBs I have mentioned today, be aware you need to get different at other positions if you are playing in larger fields.
Wide Receiver
Justin Jefferson (MIN): $9,400 vs. Kansas City
I will tell you all a secret. Justin Jefferson is really good at football. I will have some exposure to Tyreek Hill (the other $9K+ WR) as well but if I could only play one, it would be Jefferson. The Chiefs will force the Vikings to air it out to keep up, and despite the Chiefs’ defense being pretty good, I’m not worried about Jefferson. His price tag does make it difficult to squeeze him into a lineup, but I think it is worth finding a way.
Ja’Marr Chase (CIN): $7,900 @ Arizona
The Bengals have had a truly awful start to the season for both real-life and fantasy purposes. Last week’s comments from Chase show that tempers are boiling in Cincinnati. Despite that, the Bengals should still be able to handle Arizona, and Chase in particular is projecting to have a really good game. He will be mega chalk, and I am still considering giving him the full fade just based on the vibes right now. I could get burned here because this is a potential “squeaky wheel” situation on our hands.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA): $7,500 vs. New York (N)
If you played Jaylen Waddle after last week’s article, I am so sorry. I promise you that playing him in my lineups had a negative impact on my bankroll. The NFL is a week-to-week game where you have to have a short memory of what just happened. One of the big reasons I like playing Jefferson over Hill in a lot of spots is because Miami’s number two pass catcher has way more ceiling than any non-Justin Jefferson pass catcher on the Vikings. He has the added benefit of being low-owned after an injury and a dud week.
Garrett Wilson (NYJ): $6,000 @ Denver
This Broncos defense leads to some awesome projections for opposing offensive players. When you see the @/vs. Denver on the schedule, you can probably just jam these guys in your lineup and be just fine. The team also seems to have a bunch of confidence and support going towards Zach Wilson even after a loss which I believe will help him play well. I think I will have at least one Jet in every lineup I build this week. Wilson will be extremely popular but not bad chalk to eat if you can mix it up elsewhere.
Tyler Boyd (CIN): $4,500 @ Arizona
If Tee Higgins does not play, Boyd because the “free square” for cash lineups is at $4.5K. If Higgins is out I expect Boyd to be one of the most popular plays on the slate. Boyd is capable of being a number two WR in a lot of places and is only a WR3 because he happens to be a part of one of the strongest WR rooms in football. He is a low ADOT guy, but with Joe Burrow struggling with the calf injury that might not be a bad thing. Burrow can get the ball out of his hands quickly and let his pass catchers do the work.
Jameson Williams (DET): $4,000 vs. Carolina
I know the Dynasty community is out a Jameson Williams on the whole, but at this price tag, we gotta be in. It takes one 70-yard TD to justify this salary. We know that is in the range of outcomes for Jameson Williams based on even a small sample of him playing in the NFL. At the time of writing, it appears there will be no Amon-Ra St. Brown (based on practice reports) so some extra targets may be available. You will likely know on Sunday morning the status of ARSB, but I still like Williams as a tournament play regardless.
Wan’Dale Robinson (NYG): $3,000 @ Miami
Any min-priced WR that gets targets is always in play. This one has been getting 5 targets a game since he was put back into the offense. Robinson also possesses some speed that could easily turn a 6-yard completion into a touchdown. Because of how popular he will be, I will want to be selective about where I plug him into lineups. Playing him as the lazy bringback in a Tua stack is the same core as many lineups this week. It will also be trendy to use Robinson to save some salary for guys like Hill and Jefferson. Play him in cash games, but be mindful of exactly how you utilize him in tournament lineups.
WR Strategy
On most weeks, WR is a position I get different at. This week because my strategy is to play the lesser-owned quarterbacks, I will be happy to jam some chalky WRs into my lineup to save some salary. If you want to play a chalkier lineup elsewhere and get different at WR, I can recommend DeVonta Smith ($7.4K), Chris Olave ($6.9K), or Tutu Atwell ($5.3) as guys under 10% in projected ownership. In the Mahomes lineups I build, I will certainly be looking for guys like that.
Tight End
Travis Kelce (KC): $7,600 @ Minnesota
Since Kelce entered his A-list celebrity relationship, he has not had a signature Kelce performance. This matchup is primed for it. The Vikings’ defense has been gashed by lesser quarterbacks than Patrick Mahomes this season already. If Kelce does have one of those signature Kelce performances, having him in your lineup is an entire 15-25 positional advantage on everyone not playing Kelce in the field. It is such a unique difference-maker.
Tyler Conklin (NYJ): $3,200 @ Denver
A Jet in every lineup. Until Denver plays some defense, I will continue to jam players from every position group against them. Cole Kmet had an entire revival game against the Broncos last week. During the Chiefs and Jets game, you saw Zach Wilson looking for his tight ends as they got closer to the red zone. There is some real two-touchdown upside from Conklin.
TE Strategy
If you have been reading my DFS article weekly, you know my favorite way to address tight end is through my primary game stack. The theory is that if the QB in my lineup has a ceiling game, he may have vultured some touchdowns in the red zone from his running game. If I play a cheap game stack, I love spending up for a one-of-Kelce or even a secondary correlation with a Vikings player.
D/ST
In general, projections for D/ST are some of the least accurate in the business. We had a textbook example Thursday night where the Commanders D/ST projected extremely strongly just to put up negative points. So with D/ST, I will play chalk in cash but want to get different for tournament play. I use these steps to pick out a D/ST, sometimes I won’t meet all of them but I try my best.
- Never play the highest-owned D/ST.
- Never play a defense that plays against any of my offensive players.
- Try to correlate my D/ST with one of my RBs.
- Be willing to leave salary on the table to avoid dup’d lineups.
Right now it looks like the Titans D/ST at $2.4K is going to be the most popular selection. Often the chalk D/ST is one of the cheaper options on the board. This week in particular, I may not pair with an RB as much, I like just paying down to either the Giants ($2K) or Panthers ($2.2) to open up a bunch of salary.
Conclusion
This is a really fun slate to build for, pricing is tight but there is enough value in places to squeeze in some studs. As I’ve said before, I will be focusing my lineups on the cheap QBs so that I can get access to guys like Bijan, Jefferson, and Kelce. Despite being the smallest main slate so far this season, I find no shortage of plays that I find intriguing so have some fun and win some money this week.
Thanks so much for reading, If you want to discuss more reach me on Twitter, find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, Redraft, DFS, Sports Betting, Devy, and IDP. Annual Subscribers also get access to our discord server where you can get access to our entire staff!
