Michael Penix Jr. | QB | Washington | 2024 Draft Eligible
If you’re a college football fan, Michael Penix Jr. is a name you’ve heard for what seems like the past decade. His collegiate career started way back in 2018 for the Hoosiers, where he unfortunately suffered season-ending injuries in each of his four years in Bloomington. Since transferring to Washington in 2022, Penix has managed to avoid the injury bug. Husky fans are praying their Heisman candidate stays healthy this season, as their team remains undefeated and their playoff hopes are still very much alive. Here’s a brief breakdown of Penix’s career by season:
2018: Redshirt year, suffered torn ACL, out for season
2019: RS Freshman, named starter…suffered SC joint injury after six games…out for season
2020: RS Sophomore, starter, suffered a season-ending ACL injury after six games…
2021: RS Junior, starter, suffered AC joint injury after five games…out for season
2022: RS Senior, led nation in pass yards per game (357), finished eighth in Heisman race
2023: 6th year Senior (due to COVID season), second in Heisman race, 196.5 passer rating
Early Career
Penix Jr. was not a highly touted prospect in high school, rated as a 3-star prospect and the 40th QB in his class according to ESPN. He had just five total Power 5 offers (IU, Arizona, Oregon, Tennessee, Rutgers), ultimately choosing to play for Tom Allen in Bloomington.
Penix Jr. really made his mark during the COVID season in 2020, leading the Hoosiers to a 5-1 record before suffering his second ACL injury in three years. This was the peak of Indiana football in the 21st century; Hoosier fans felt they found themselves a generational quarterback and were on the verge of turning the program around, but this never materialized due largely to Penix’s injury troubles. In 2021, after his fourth season-ending injury in as many years, Penix entered the transfer portal and signed with the University of Washington.
2022-Present
Since transferring to Washington, Penix has been nothing short of elite. He led the Huskies to an 11-2 record in 2022, finished with 4,641 pass yards, 35 total touchdowns, and finished 8th overall in the Heisman race. 2023 has been even better for the 6th-year senior, as the Huskies sit at 5-0 and are 7th in the country, ready to host the Oregon Ducks (#8) next weekend, a game that undoubtedly has major CFB playoff implications. Penix has posted some gaudy numbers through five contests, amassing 16 touchdowns with just two interceptions. On DraftKings, Penix has the second-best odds to win the Heisman this year (+380) after the 2022 Heisman winner and USC quarterback Caleb Williams (+180).
Strengths/Weaknesses
Penix certainly has more strengths than weaknesses, as he’s moved up the ranks in this 2024 draft class since last season. He’s an above-average processor, an accurate passer, and makes very few mental mistakes. While he’s not a true rushing threat (less than 300 rush yards through 39 college games), he is athletic enough to extend plays when needed.
It’s hard to ignore Penix’s injury history when we look at weaknesses. While we can’t project future injuries based on prior injuries, and I don’t think it’s a good process to let previous injuries deter you from buying a player in fantasy, the multiple ACL injuries are certainly worrisome in Dynasty.
Penix will turn 24 before the 2024 NFL season, so he’s much older than most of his competition in this draft class. That said, rookie age is not something we should weigh too heavily at the quarterback position in fantasy. And we know injuries derailed his career for an extended period, so it’s not reasonable for us to ding Penix for not being an early-declare. It’s hard to tell whether Penix would have been an early NFL draft pick prior to 2023 if he remained healthy.
In terms of mechanics, Penix has a longer throwing motion, which may need to be shortened if he hopes to find success at the next level. As mentioned, Penix has minimal rushing upside, so his fantasy ceiling is capped to an extent.
Draft Projections
According to the NFL Mock Draft Database, which pulls mock drafts from dozens of reputable sources, Penix is projected to be a Round 1 draft pick, 28th overall. If Penix can sneak into Day 1 of the draft, his odds of becoming an NFL starter will be significantly higher.
Since 2016, 20/27 QBs drafted on Day 1 are NFL starters as of today (74%), while just 2/18 Day 2 QBs are current NFL starters in the same span (11%). Much will ride on his draft capital, as he’s far from a lock to be a Day 1 pick.
The NFL QB landscape should look entirely different in 2024. Tons of teams could be looking for a starter come April. The Jets, Bears, Vikings, Rams, Patriots, Cardinals, Buccaneers, Titans, Commanders, Falcons, and Raiders could all be looking for a change under center. So, while the QB competition is high in this 2024 class, ample spots may be available. It’s certainly in the range of outcomes that Penix is an NFL starter in Week 1 of the 2024 NFL season.
https://twitter.com/MockDraftGuyYT/status/1709978009967452585Penix is one of the best in the nation while under pressure, as seen in the chart below. He’s pressured at a rate of nearly 40%, yet he’s been sacked on less than 10% of those pressures. While this is an impressive stat, film experts say Penix tends to hold the ball for far too long, which has resulted in the ridiculously high pressure rate. He’ll likely need to focus on getting the ball out much quicker at the next level.
It is worth noting what kind of surrounding cast Penix gets to play with this year. He has Rome Odunze, a truly elite prospect who’s projected to be a late-1st-round draft pick in 2024 according to the NFL Mock Draft Database, as well as Jalen McMillan, who is arguably a top-10 WR in this class and projected to go in the 3rd round of the NFL draft. He also has sophomore Ja’Lynn Polk, who is off to a quick start in 2023 and quickly rises in stock each week.
However, it’s not fair to discount Penix’s success because of his elite surrounding cast, as most successful NFL quarterbacks today played with NFL-caliber receivers in college. And Penix has shown his ability as a passer when healthy, dating back to his days as a Hoosier.
Devy/Dynasty Value
Regarding Devy value, it’s tough to gauge where we should take Penix. You could make the argument of putting him as high as QB3 in this 2024 draft class, only behind Caleb Williams and Drake Maye.
As deep as this 2024 class is, I’m only truly confident in Williams and Maye developing into quality NFL starters. After these two, I see a huge tier drop, where Tier 2 includes the following guys (assuming they all declare): Quinn Ewers, Shedeur Sanders, Michael Penix Jr, and Bo Nix. And there are a handful of other guys I could be talked into placing in this tier, like Riley Leonard, KJ Jefferson, and JJ McCarthy. It just feels like such a dart throw to invest in a 2024 QB not named Caleb Williams or Drake Maye right now.
I can see taking Penix as early as the 2nd round in Devy startup drafts, but I’d personally much rather use that draft capital on an elite WR or RB I’m confident will hit at the next level, or even a younger QB with a higher projectible ceiling, like Drew Allar (2025) or Malachi Nelson (2026). Ultimately, I think Penix should be valued around a mid-3rd round Devy startup pick, and I’m not willing to go all-in on the guy unless we see Day 1 draft capital. Too many things can go wrong between now and then.
Thank you for taking the time to read this article, and I hope you got some valuable information you can use for your fantasy team! If you’d like additional insight into Dynasty Football news and analysis, please follow me on Twitter at @jim_DFF. Until next time, keep grinding out there, DFF family! #DFFArmy #AlwaysBeBuilding
