Welcome back to some DFS with Doug. By now, we have hit our stride and our routine for the NFL season. Every Sunday, we handle the juggling act of getting all of our Dynasty and Redraft lineups in shape while trying to make bets and, of course, submit our DFS lineups to land that big payday. That Sunday morning sweat is my favorite feeling during football season. This week, we will benefit from a football game while doing that with our first international game of the season. Or perhaps you are crazy like me and will be waking up at 5:30 MT to set some Showdown lineups for that game, too!
Highest Totals
We have one game with a much higher total for a second straight week. The Dolphins at Bills game is the only game with a total over 50, with a total of 53.5 at the time of writing. While this game will certainly have a lot of ownership, it is a bit more cost-prohibitive than last week’s Chargers at Vikings game. There are also many great value plays elsewhere on the slate to keep ownership in check.
Quarterback:
Josh Allen (BUF): $8,200 vs. Miami
Any week can be Josh Allen week. This week, in particular, the matchup is juicy, to say the very least. While Allen has yet to have a slate-breaking performance, you don’t want to be off him when it happens. Other than Stefon Diggs, the rest of the stacking options for the Bills are relatively cheap. The bring-backs are all pretty pricey, but Miami has their targets so consolidated that Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle are your best bring-back options.
Jalen Hurts (PHI): $8,000 vs. Washington
If you want another less popular spend-up option, Jalen Hurts is one of the few quarterbacks with the same level of upside as Josh Allen. Jalen has the single-highest rushing touchdown upside of any quarterback in fantasy. The “tush-push” continues to be obscenely effective for the Eagles and those rostering Jalen Hurts. The game could end up a blowout; you just hope Jalen has already put up huge numbers by then.
Justin Herbert (LAC): $7,800 vs. Las Vegas
This game is super intriguing to me. Justin Herbert is great, but there are also some cheaper stacking options brought along from the Mike Williams injury and some great bring-backs here as well. It also looks like another week without Austin Ekeler, so the Chargers will likely have to air it out to move the ball yet again. While Ekeler does provide help in the passing game, his absence has made the Chargers very one-dimensional, causing Herbert to throw 40+ times a game the last two weeks.
Kirk Cousins (MIN): $7,100 @ Carolina
Poor Kirk Cousins is out here putting up career numbers just for his team to be sitting at 0-3 heading into Carolina this week. The good news is that the Panthers should allow the Vikings to put one in the win column. Like Hurts, we run the risk of this one getting out of hand quickly, but if they get there through the air early on, Cousins could easily have another monster game.
Russell Wilson (DEN): $5,800 @ Chicago
This is a game that only a sports bettor or fantasy sports manager could love. The Broncos and the Bears have both had awful weeks, but despite all the Broncos issues this year, Russell Wilson has been quite effective in throwing the ball. At this price, you can still squeeze in a double stack with Russ and have plenty of money available for guys like Tyreek Hill, Justin Jefferson, or Christian McCaffrey.
QB Strategy:
Ownership is extremely flat this week amongst the quarterbacks in the league, so almost every quarterback is in play for lineups. I would try to ensure I am playing a quarterback with some ceiling and constructing lineups that correlate correctly with that quarterback hitting their ceiling outcome.
Running Back:
Christian McCaffrey (SF): $9,200 vs. Arizona
While the Dolphins/Bills game has the highest total, San Fransico has the highest implied team total. While the Cardinals have been feisty this season, the 49ers offense is a machine with how effectively it moves down the field. While CMC will certainly see some ownership, there is a good chance people are paying up for pieces from the Dolphins and Bills rather than on a running back. A high-ceiling guy who creates leverage is exactly what we want in DFS.
Tony Pollard (DAL): $7,800 vs. New England
Last week was fine for Pollard, but if he caught the screen for a touchdown instead of Rico Dowdle, he would have absolutely crushed. Still, the quantity and quality of Tony Pollard’s touches are second to none so far this season. Pollard has had a great season, but it still feels like he hasn’t crushed in a week yet.
Josh Jacobs (LV): $7,100 @ Los Angeles (A)
The Chargers defense is a mess this season. What do we do against bad defenses? We target them in daily fantasy. This game environment is low-key enticing, which is a nice way to get some exposure. Josh Jacobs has yet to have a big game this season, but he has had some tough matchups and bad luck. The workload has been promising, and this matchup could allow him to have a huge game.
Alvin Kamara (NO): $6,200 vs. Tampa Bay
Welcome back to football, Alvin Kamara! The Saints have been struggling with injuries in the backfield and will be rolling out Jameis Winston at quarterback this week. Kamara has been on the shelf for a couple of weeks and could be in for a huge role in his first game back. You also may fade some ownership on others being afraid to play him in his first week back.
Kyren Williams (LAR): $6,000 @ Indianapolis
Once a week, I tell you about a great cash game value at running back that I will likely completely fade in tournament play. This week, that is Kyren Williams. While that player has been less than $5.5K most of the time, Kyren is a great value at $6K. Williams was on the field for 100% of the running back snaps in last Monday night’s game against the Bengals, and despite poor efficiency, the volume is insane.
Roschon Johnson (CHI): $4,900 vs. Denver
One of my absolute favorite plays on the whole slate. The Broncos defense got gashed by the Dolphins run game last week. Each week, Roschon has handled a bit more of the workload than the previous week. This feels like a nice spot for the Roschon Johnson breakout party to officially occur. At $4.9K, this opens up so much salary for the more expensive options on the slate this week.
Running Back Strategy:
A lot of running backs project very well this week, so ownership outside of Kyren Williams should be pretty flat. As usual with running backs, pay attention on Sunday morning for injuries, as they can quickly open up some insane value at the position.
Wide Receiver:
Justin Jefferson (MIN): $9,600 @ Carolina
I do not need to tell you what kind of year Jefferson is having, how good he is, or any of this stuff. I can tell you that Tyreek Hill appears to be the more trendy spend-up WR this week, potentially leaving Jefferson as a leverage play. The matchup could get out of hand by halftime, but by then, Jefferson could be sitting with seven catches for nearly 200 yards and multiple touchdowns.
Davante Adams (LV): $8,000 @ Los Angeles (A)
Last Sunday Night, we got to watch Davante Adams put up a casual 20 targets in a losing effort to the Pittsburgh Steelers. Adams completely crushed the Showdown slate and is only $8K this week. There is a fear of Brian Hoyer being the starting quarterback this week, but the matchup is so juicy that I am not scared away from Adams in this spot.
Jaylen Waddle (MIA): $7,600 @ Buffalo
I have mentioned before that Tyreek Hill appears to be a popular play on this slate; this makes Waddles an intriguing pivot here. This is a bit narrative-driven for me as well. Last week, the Dolphins got to completely go ham offensively, and everyone got theirs. Jaylen missed out on the party, and I could see the Dolphins attempt to get him involved early and often this week because of that.
Puka Nacua (LAR): $6,700 @ Indianapolis
The talk of the town in Dynasty is our sweet prince Puka Nacua. Last week was a drop-off from previous weeks for Puka, but this Colts secondary gives him a chance to get right back on track. Puka will be quite chalky this week, given how well he pops in projections at a $6.7K price, but if he has another 15+ target game, you will likely need him in your lineup to have a chance at a big payday.
Marquise Brown (ARI): $5,000 @ San Fransico
The Arizona Cardinals have been a lot more scrappy this season than any of us expected. Despite that, they are 14-point underdogs to division rival San Fransico. This means we have a lot of the game potentially played with a positive game script for Marquise Brown and potentially a 49ers secondary that does not need to worry about short completions. It works well as a nice mini correlation with any single 49ers piece or as a bring-back on a Brock Purdy double stack.
Elijah Moore (CLE): $4,700 vs. Baltimore
With Nick Chubb out of the lineup, we saw the Cleveland Browns using Elijah Moore to generate a pseudo-running game out of the backfield. While potentially volatile, I love Elijah Moore as a leverage play against Tank Dell ($4,600) and Adam Thielen ($4,500) ownership. While both those other guys will likely project better, if you are already eating a bunch of chalk, Elijah Moore is a nice way to get different in a similar price range.
Joshua Palmer (LAC): $4,000 vs. Las Vegas
Joshua Palmer will likely be the most-played WR in DFS on Sunday this week. The volume he is stepping into should suggest a price in the mid $5K range, but here we are with him priced at just $4,000. I usually like using the wide receiver position to differentiate my lineup, but I cannot imagine I don’t play at least some Josh Palmer this week. It works well as a mini-stack with either Jacobs or Adams on the other side, easily stacked with Herbert, and some much-needed salary relief so I can play guys like Hill, Jefferson, and CMC.
Wide Receiver Strategy:
I find myself with a lot of “stars and scrubs” builds at WR this week. There are the alpha WRs near the top, then some great values near the bottom. Even as I type this, it perhaps suggests there is some opportunity to get different at the position with a flatter mid-ranged approach.
Tight End:
George Kittle (SF): $5,100 vs. Arizona
The ultimate DFS tight end strikes here again. Kittle has always had swingy game logs, but we love that for DFS. Median projections keep him out of lineups, and inconsistent production keeps his price down. Last year, in two games against the Cardinals, Kittle finished both games with a pair of touchdowns. There is also the possibility of no Deebo Samuel in the lineup for the 49ers, which would open up more targets for Kittle.
Pat Freiermuth (PIT): $3,400 @ Houston
At the time of writing, Freiermuth appears to be the best value play at tight end and likely the most popular one as well. For me, this means I will probably shove him in my cash lineup and fade him in tournaments unless I am explicitly pairing him with Kenny Pickett. The tight-end position is a bit too volatile for me to want to eat any amount of cheap chalk.
Dalton Kincaid (BUF): $3,200 vs. Miami
The underlying metrics for Dalton Kincaid are here. He is on the field a lot, running routes, not blocking, lining up in the slot, etc. The breakout game feels like a matter of when and not if. I continue to harp on this point: you would rather be a week early than a week late to a player’s breakout party in DFS. The game environment is primo for Kincaid, and this gives you a cheap way to get exposure to this game or to go along with your Josh Allen stack.
Tight End Strategy:
Tight end is completely open this week. For tournament play, I will likely play a scattered group of all the tight ends not named Pat Freiermuth. Look for higher-totaled games to find ones that may fall into an endzone once or twice.
D/ST:
This is my weekly reminder to not worry too much about D/ST but to try not to eat too much chalk. Once again, I will recap my general philosophy on picking a D/ST in tournaments.
- Never play the highest-owned D/ST.
- Never play a defense that plays against any of my offensive players.
- Try to correlate my D/ST with one of my RBs.
- Be willing to leave salary on the table to avoid dup’d lineups.
This week, the Browns are projecting as the highest-played D/ST, so they will be out of my pool for the most part. This week, I like potentially stacking Josh Jacobs with the Raiders D/ST. At $2.3K, they don’t even have to be good for them to be a good play from the savings alone.
Conclusion:
This will be a fun week of DFS, thanks to some flatter quarterback ownership, leaving nobody truly overplayed this week. My original list of quarterbacks I wanted to mention was about nine deep. Just make sure your lineups have some good correlations and maybe pick a few spots to get different, and you can take home a winner this week. Good luck, everyone!
Thanks so much for reading! If you want to discuss more, reach me on Twitter. You can find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also, don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, Redraft, DFS, Sports Betting, Devy, and IDP. Annual Subscribers also get access to our discord server, where you can get access to our entire staff!
