The season continues moving along, and another DFS main slate comes this Sunday. This slate is a very different animal to tackle with one game with a significantly higher total, a Monday Night Football misprice (I will explain), and even a tropical cyclone moving through the eastern United States.
Chargers @ Vikings
I am giving you fewer names this week because we must discuss how much this game alters the complexion of the slate. Cousins and Herbert stacks will be extremely popular, so if you play them, you must find a way to build a unique lineup. Here are the options for approaching this game in order of least risk to most risk.
- Stack it, but get different at other parts of your lineup
- Secondary stack it
- Onslaught it
- Play a one-of from the matchup
- Fully fade it
Stacking it
If you decide to go Justin Herbert with Keenan Allen and Mike Williams just to bring it back with Justin Jefferson, you better have some plays nobody else is playing. That will also cost you a lot of salary so it won’t be easy to fit.
Secondary Stack
Play another QB stack, then play a smaller stack like T.J. Hockenson with Keenan Allen. You get some exposure to the game, but you fade some ownership. You can even do double stacks without either quarterback to get spicy- something like Joshua Kelley, Allen, with a Justin Jefferson bring back.
Onslaught Stack
I always advise the double stack with the bringback, but here could be a spot to do a double stack with a double bringback or even a triple stack if you think it goes nuts. The Milly Maker won last year in Week 4 with a double stack, triple bringback lineup. It was the Seahawks at Lions game that ended in a 48-45 shootout.
Play a One-Off
Hope the game doesn’t get too crazy, and correctly guess the highest-scoring player or highest FPTS/$ player. I like doing this with the RBs as a direct leverage on the QB ownership.
Fully Fade it
Simply fading the game is also an option, albeit a scary one. If the game does not shootout, then a huge chunk of the field is sank right there on the spot.
For me personally, I will do each of those things except the first and last ones. Simply stacking it requires me to find some bad plays and convince myself that they are good plays, and fully fading it seems bad. My lineups will probably be a mix of the other three strategies.
Quarterback:
Patrick Mahomes (KC): $8,300 vs. Chicago
One way to fade the Chargers and Vikings game is to pay up for the best quarterback in the game. You run the risk of them being up too much, too quickly, for Mahomes to have a ceiling game. With two mediocre performances in a row on offense, KC may want to establish some offensive explosiveness for the first time this season. Stack him with Kelce and pick any KC WR; it could be any of them with him. The good news is those WRs are cheap and low-owned. You can skinny-stack him with Kelce, but it feels like one receiver should pay off their price tag.
Justin Herbert (LAC): $7,500 @ Minnesota
Kirk Cousins (MIN): $6,900 vs. Los Angeles (A)
I have talked about this game, so I won’t go on too long here, and I’ll group them. The two most popular quarterback plays on the slate. They are great plays with great stacking options in a great game environment with great bringbacks. You will have to distinguish your lineup somewhere. Cousins will likely be my cash game quarterback this week.
Deshaun Watson (CLE): $6,100 vs. Tennessee
This one is gross after how he just looked on Monday Night Football. That also means nobody will want to click his name. Some people will not click his name for other reasons that I am sure you are aware of. If you do not want to play him for that reason, don’t. Fantasy football is a numbers game for me, and at this price and ownership in this matchup, Watson seems like a great play. Watson is also great leverage against a chalky RB in Jerome Ford (more later) and is playing a defense that is a pass funnel.
Russell Wilson (DEN): $5,900 @ Miami
Despite the Broncos being 0-2, Russell Wilson hasn’t been bad from a fantasy perspective. The matchup with Miami is not scary. It could lead to a game script forcing Denver to throw a lot. The Broncos’ defense has taken a significant step back this season and will be without All-Pro free safety Justin Simmons. A bad defense is good for a quarterback’s fantasy production since they have to keep throwing to keep up.
Gardner Minshew (IND): $5,100 @ Baltimore
There is a possibility of inclement weather in this game, so try to check in on Sunday morning before kickoff. Minshew has shown a ceiling before and can be cheaply stacked to allow you to play multiple pieces in the Chargers and Vikings game.
Quarterback Strategy:
I will limit my exposure to Cousins and Herbert to avoid being in the pile-ups. When I do play them, I will overload a lineup with players from both sides. I don’t mind skinny stacks with my quarterbacks to get more exposure to the Chargers and Vikings game.
Running Back:
Tony Pollard (DAL): $8,000 @ Arizona
Pollard is everything we wanted him to be without Zeke. He will be a popular play and cash game viable. What you get for your $8K is volume and explosiveness, a lethal DFS combination. He gets all the redzone touches for a team that should be scoring points easily in this game.
Bijan Robinson (ATL): $7,800 @ Detriot
Bijan may just be in my player pools until there becomes a reason not to. His volume went up last week, and he was fantastic. The Lions’ defense does seem improved, but this is a ridiculous talent situation.
Alexander Mattison (MIN): $5,800 vs. Los Angeles (A)
Joshua Kelley (LAC): $5,400 @ Minnesota
This is a way to start a mini stack or a way to play a one-off from this game. They have picked up steam now, though, so you still have work to do to differentiate your lineup. I’m not excited about either one from an effectiveness point of view. They will both get volume in a game that could have a lot of points.
Jerome Ford (CLE): $4,800 vs. Tennessee
This is a Monday Night Football misprice. His salary was set on Sunday evening when the slate was released. This pricing does not account for the absence of Nick Chubb. This is a cash game play for me, but not a tournament one. In cash, that much volume for sub $5K is awesome. In a tournament setting, he will be overplayed in a bad matchup (Tennessee’s run defense is stout) with a very low ceiling.
Running Back Strategy:
My running back strategy will depend on whether I play Cousins/Herbert or the field at QB. If I play either of those first guys, I need to get different at running back somehow. If I fade them, however, I can eat some chalk at running back just fine.
Wide Receiver:
Justin Jefferson (MIN): $9,300 vs. Los Angeles
There may be a point when it costs too much to play Jefferson. I don’t think we are there yet. When a guy is about to have a career year, play him every week in DFS. Every time a guy had one of those seasons, it was correct to play him every week, even at a high salary and ownership. I will not fade him on a week where he has the juiciest game environment on the slate.
Keenan Allen (LAC): $7,600 @ Minnesota
Mike Williams (LAC): $6,000 @ Minnesota
Jordan Addison (MIN): $5,500 vs. Los Angeles (A)
K.J. Osborn (MIN): $4,000 vs. Los Angeles (A)
I could split these into further groups, but it really is Justin Jefferson and then everybody else. The Chargers receivers will have higher ownership, price, and upside. The Vikings receivers are cheaper and less owned but lack the same ceiling. All these guys are viable in all variations of your builds.
Amon-Ra St. Brown (DET): $7,900 vs. Atlanta
This works perfectly as a mini-stick with Bijan Robinson, albeit a pricey one. You probably cannot play the expensive pieces to the Chargers and Vikings game with that stack, but you will have a ton of leverage on them. Amon-Ra is a certified target hog. This game has some low-key shootout potential.
Zay Flowers (BAL): $5,400 vs. Indianapolis
Some people will be scared off because of the weather; let them be. If the weather is bad, remember that the ball doesn’t have to go far to get into Zay Flowers’ hands. With no Odell Beckham Jr. in the lineup, Flowers and Rashod Bateman both become cheap pieces to fit into a lineup.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA): $4,300 vs. Carolina
If you wait until the breakout to play JSN, you will miss the single best week to play JSN. At some point this season, he will do what we know he is capable of, and I want to be rich that week. Predicting the next superstar to break out is a skill in DFS that Dynasty managers should excel at.
Wide Receiver Strategy:
This strategy is altered greatly depending on my primary stack. If it is the field instead of the LAC/MIN game, then I can toss in some chalky guys, even ones from that game. If my primary stack is from that expected shootout, you have to get weird to make it work.
Tight End:
T.J. Hockenson (MIN): $6,500 vs. Los Angeles (A)
His price tag might be the only thing keeping his ownership under control. It might be worth it for the season that Hockenson is having. He is playable in all configurations, and while he isn’t too chalky, he will not be a way to make your lineup different.
Gerald Everett (LAC): $3,800 @ Minnesota
Donald Parham Jr. (LAC): $2,700 @ Minnesota
Two tight ends getting targets is the worst for fantasy. This is a cheap and low-ownership way to get some exposure to that game. It makes me a bit sick to my stomach, though, and I love cheap crappy tight end plays. I like Parham more as a play because he is getting the redzone looks, and at his salary, one luck box touchdown will suffice. Parham is a maybe for me. Everett will be out of my player pool entirely.
Zach Ertz (ARI): $3,500 vs. Dallas
Insane volume for only $3.5K. Ertz is currently averaging nine targets a game, and the game script should be in his favor. He is a great option for a cash game tight end, and with that kind of target share, may be a cheap, chalky tight end I actually play.
Tight End Strategy:
The tight end position feels rough this week. Anywhere I have a few good value plays in already, I’ll happily spend up for a solo Kelce ($7,200), Hockenson, or Mark Andrews ($6,000) just to get some ceiling. Otherwise, I’m stacking with my quarterback or picking from some low-owned tight ends with some correlation to other plays.
D/ST Strategy:
Last week, I gave you a bunch of rules for picking out D/ST; those still apply. For reference:
- Never play the highest-owned D/ST.
- Never play a defense that plays against any of my offensive players.
- Try to correlate my D/ST with one of my RBs.
- Be willing to leave salary on the table to avoid dup’d lineups.
The big thing this week is that the highest projected defense has swung widely all week long with weather reports and QB injuries. As of now, the Colts, Bills, and Jets look like the highest played defenses. If you decide to fade the Chargers/Vikings or play a one-of RB, those defenses provide intriguing leverage over their high ownership.
Conclusion:
This slate has one game that you have to decide on each lineup how you will address. This does create some opportunity to leverage against all that ownership with creative roster building. This is a week I will be breaking more of the “rules” to get different. Breaking the rules is fun, anyway.
Thanks so much for reading! If you want to discuss more, reach me on Twitter. You can find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also, don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, Redraft, DFS, Sports Betting, Devy, and IDP. Annual Subscribers also get access to our discord server, where you can get access to our entire staff!
