If you are new to DFS, a Primer is available here.
The full appendix is available at the bottom for any terms not understood here.
In the blink of an eye, we have gone from the NFL kickoff on September 7th to Christmas. The fantasy football season begins coming to a close at about this time. Just because your Dynasty team is eliminated does not mean you can’t have a good sweat during the holidays, though. We have football all weekend with a plethora of DFS slates to play. This particular article will focus on our Sunday morning main slate on Christmas Eve. Due to all the games on Saturday and Christmas day, we only have nine games on this slate, so things may be a bit more tricky to navigate, but regardless of the size of the slate, there is a bunch of money, and somebody’s gotta win it!
Week 15 Report Card
Cash Lineup
H2H ITM%: 29%
H2H ROI: (-48.57%)
Double Up Cash Line: 153.02
The Garrett Wilson stat line harmed my day. Even in bad game scripts, he has come through in garbage time in most weeks. I stubbornly played Brock Purdy despite knowing on Sunday morning that most people would play Stafford in cash. I do not get to victory lap this decision, though, because of how poorly Garrett Wilson performed on Sunday. Finishing only 1.5 points below the cash line means even one more catch for a decent number of yards would have been enough to have been profitable on Sunday.
Single Entry
ROI: (-100%)
Cash Line: 156.88
Winning Score: 215.86
I did tell you that Garrett Wilson ruined my day, didn’t I? Having him sandwiched between two bagels in Michael Wilson and Dawson Knox is the final punch in the gut. I wanted to play Brock, Deebo, and CMC on this team and find a way to play Kyren as well. I was able to do so but had to finish up my lineup with a very loose Dawson Knox in a game that I thought would surely be a shootout. Right below the cash line with 11.8K of my salary and three roster spots combining for 5.9 points.
MME
ROI: (-60%)
ITM%: 20%
Top Lineup Payout: 2x
Cash Line: 150.42
Winning Score: 220.26
We see Michael Wilson here again; he made his way into a lot of my lineups as a way to play the 49ers and Cardinals game without playing a chalky Trey McBride. He also opened up a lot of salary. If the two Wilsons had been better this past weekend, then maybe I’d be spending the holidays on a beach somewhere and writing this with a fruity cocktail in my hand and some sunglasses on. Alas, we are not rich, so the quest continues!
Highest Totals
Dallas @ Miami (49.5)
Detroit @ Minnesota (47.5)
Despite the smaller slate, we have some decent totals to work with. They are also priced up in a way that makes it tough to stack these games easily. There is also not a ton of cheap value available on this slate to make it easier to stack these games. You will want to attack these games naturally, but it will be tough, and you will need to get creative. This could be a spot for a cheap game stack, and then play secondary correlations from these games with the premium pieces.
Top Stacks
Dak Prescott (DAL): $7,900 @ Miami
Last week was brutal for all my Dynasty teams with Dak Prescott. I watched many of my teams get the absolute blade from Dak putting up such a dud against the Bills last week. We have to forget. We have to forgive. Excluding last week, Dak has been as reliable as rain this year, putting up some career numbers in passing efficiency. I will not let one game spoil me. The Dolphins’ defense has tightened up a bit in the second half of the season, and the total of this game opened at 51.5, which is down to 49.5 already. This is not quite the slam dunk it would have been about a month or two ago, but I still trust this Cowboys offense.
Tua Tagovailoa (MIA): $7,800 vs. Dallas
Same game from the other side. Although Tyreek has had a monster season, and Tua is leading the league in passing yards, Tua has been very pedestrian from a fantasy football perspective the past month. Since the start of November, he has only had one game above 20 DK points and offers no help with his legs. I know I have given you reasons not to play him, but everyone else has this same information and will likely be disinterested in playing Tua this week. I will gladly take the ownership discount on Tua here in a game with high-scoring potential.
Justin Fields (CHI): $7,100 vs. Arizona
It has been a winning strategy all season to play a double stack against the Cardinals or a running back against them and bring it back with Zach Ertz or now Trey McBride. Be warned this combination will be extremely chalky this week with how much Fields is popping in projection. He is likely to be the most played QB in both cash and tournaments; I would try to find a way to play him differently if you play him in tournaments. A simple way I like is to play either tight end in this game. It’s kind of gross, but it will ensure you are not dup’d.
Top Plays
Tyreek Hill (MIA): $9,600 vs. Dallas
Tyreek has said that his goal is 2,000 receiving yards this season. With only three weeks and 458 yards to go, he will need at least one vintage Tyreek Hill performance. The Dolphins have shown that they care about individual player accomplishments, like getting Raheem Mostert over the Dolphins touchdown record just last week. I know the Cowboys’ defense is excellent, but Hill is just a different matchup than anyone else in football. Strategies that are effective against most of the NFL do not necessarily work against a guy with this much speed.
CeeDee Lamb (DAL): $9,200 @ Miami
I know I have listed four players from the same game to start this article, but they are all just the top plays at their positions. It will be harder to pay up for these guys in a week with not as cheap value, but that gives us a bit of an ownership discount that we will happily take. As previously discussed, the Cowboys had an off week last week, but we have also seen the ceiling with this team. I want some healthy exposure to this game, including its studs, though I may be underweight compared to the field.
Justin Jefferson (MIN): $8,100 vs. Detroit
Last week Addison had all the upside go his way, but we still had 10 targets go Justin Jefferson’s direction. At only $8.1K, I am smashing a very chalky Justin Jefferson in so many lineups this week. He is popping as a huge value in any projection system that is worth anything, and come on, this is Justin Jefferson being priced as the fourth highest-priced receiver on a nine-game slate. The disrespect. His price will likely keep down ownership of Hill, Lamb, and Amon-Ra St. Brown ($8.2K) down quite a bit.
Value Plays
Breece Hall (NYJ): $6,100 vs. Washington
Another player in this article likely got you eliminated from your fantasy league last week with an abysmal performance. If you survived last week with Breece Hall, you will be rewarded this week with a prime matchup. Years ago, before many DFS players started using projections as much as they do now, Hall would have faded this week due to a poor performance last week. The DFS community has gotten much wiser over the years, though, and Hall will be either the most or 2nd most popular RB on the slate.
Ty Chandler (MIN): $5,600 vs. Detroit
If Hall is the second most popular RB this week, it will be because of this guy. While the Lions have been very stingy against opposing running backs, this price is cheap enough that we don’t need him to crush for us to be happy with him in our lineups. If you are eating this kind of chalk at running back, make sure you are doing something to differentiate your lineup elsewhere. A nice way to play this is to do Chandler with ARSB as a mini stack from this game.
Treylon Burks (TEN): $3,100 vs. Seattle
I know Dynasty managers do not want to hear anything about Treylon Burks anymore, but at this price, I think he is worth a shot. He does have some big play potential, and with the Titans season effectively over, it would make sense for them to see if he is part of their plans. Last week, Burks played on 76% of snaps, and with Nick Westbrook-Ikhine being moved to the IR, the Titans are very thin at the position after DeAndre Hopkins ($6.1K). We don’t need much to justify this salary, and if he falls in the endzone, then it is a complete smash.
Value Stacks
Nick Mullens (MIN): $5,300 vs. Detroit
We have a bunch of quarterbacks playing in the $6K and under camp in some solid matchups. Since I can only mention two, we will do one chalky and one spicey one. Mullens is the chalky one, but I will happily play him in many lineups. There are many ways to configure Mullens lineups, which helps him not play too chalky. You have around six playable pieces on the Detroit side to bring it back, leading to a way to diversify your Mullens stack.
Trevor Siemian (NYJ): $4,700 vs. Washington
Oh yeah, now we are getting gross. I must have some psychological issues that I continue to recommend playing members of the New York Jets in DFS in 2023. Take the Jets and Siemian out of it, though, for just a moment. In a slate starved for value, I will play almost any professional-level quarterback at $4.7K against the Commanders’ defense and live with the results. It will not take much for him to be a fantastic points-per-dollar play, allowing you to play guys like Tyreek Hill and CeeDee Lamb in your lineup.
Low Owned Guys
Jahmyr Gibbs (DET): $7,000 @ Minnesota
A disclaimer: Low-owned plays are much harder to find in these smaller slates. You either have to get more gross or lower your threshold of a low-owned play on these kinds of slates. Simply put, there are fewer names to click on, so every single one will be clicked more than if there were two more whole NFL games on this slate. The Lions help us out a bit. Their backfield committee, “Rhythm and Bruise,” helps keep the ownership down on both guys. Many arguments for Gibbs can be made for Montgomery. Still, Minnesota’s blitz-heavy approach, as well as playing zone at the 7th highest rate in the league, lends itself to a pass-catching running back being successful.
Jaxon Smith-Njigba (SEA): $4,500 @ Tennessee
After recommending Treylon Burks, I must appease the Dynasty gods by mentioning two Dynasty darlings for my low-owned plays I like this week. We are slowly seeing more and more JSN as the season moves along. The Titans’ defense can be had through the air, and I can see Pete Carroll rewarding him for making a huge catch in a big moment last week. We only need a little from JSN at this price tag to justify his inclusion in our lineup.
Gut Play of the Week
Justin Jefferson (MIN): $8,100 vs. Detroit
He is projected as the second-highest-played WR on the slate, and by the time we get to Sunday, I wouldn’t be surprised if he was the single-highest-played WR. I don’t care. This price is too cheap for a guy this talented. I will continue to be overweight on JJ until I see his price tag up over the $9K mark. I will just try to get different at other places in my lineup. This means I will likely be underweight on both Lamb and Hill despite loving them both as plays today. Having two WRs over $8K in one lineup is hard, and it’s even harder if one is over $9K.
Conclusion
Things are a little tighter with the shorter slate, but after this week, we only have two more fully main slates left in the season. We will have some playoff slates, but those are much smaller and play very differently in nature. Enjoy these last few weeks and spend time with your loved ones this holiday season. Thanks again for joining me for a little DFS every week.
Thanks so much for reading. If you want to discuss more, you can reach me on Twitter, you can find me @DougHarrelson on there. Also, don’t forget to sign up for our Dynasty Football Factory Membership to get all things Dynasty, DFS, Sports Betting, Devy, and IDP. Annual Subscribers also get access to our discord server, where you can get access to our entire staff!
