We’re back with my “Dead to Me” series. In part one, I looked at David Johnson and Evan Engram and how their failures had been too much for me as a fantasy owner. Then in part two, I took a deep dive into Aaron Rodgers and how I no longer see him as a top-flight fantasy quarterback.
Now, it’s time for Sony Michel. Even though he has only been in the NFL for two seasons, I’ve already lost my patience with Michel. Let’s see why he has me saying, “never again.”
Let’s go back to Michel as a prospect coming into the 2018 NFL Draft. At Georgia, Michel had a successful college career. Here are his lines from his time with the Bulldogs:
He played four years in college, sharing the backfield in a 1-2 punch with Nick Chubb, outside of 2014, where Todd Gurley was in the backfield mix. In 2015, Michel had his strongest collegiate season when Chubb suffered a horrific injury. Michel still wasn’t a total workhorse back, but he certainly was close. He had his career highs in carries, rushing, and receiving yards.
However, in 2014, 2016, and 2017, Georgia preferred Chubb over Michel. Chubb received more carries and accumulated more yards than Michel in each of those seasons. Therefore, many analysts were surprised when Michel went before Chubb in the 2018 NFL Draft.
The Patriots selected Michel with the 31st-overall pick and immediately expected him to be their starting 1-2 down back. He was supposed to complement James White in the pass-catching role and Rex Burkhead in the change-of-pace role, while also bringing some pass-catching skills of his own from college. In 2015 and 2016, Michel led the Georgia running backs in receptions and profiled as a reliable pass-catcher. Therefore, Michel had both touchdown and PPR upside in fantasy.
Unfortunately for Michel, his 2018 redraft stock tanked after he required a pre-season left knee scope. Michel was known to have a “bone-on-bone” condition in that knee before the draft, so a setback in that knee particularly concerned redraft fantasy owners. He missed Week 1 with the injury but returned for Week 2. In Weeks 2 and 3, Michel was ineffective on limited work, taking just 10 carries for 34 yards in Week 2 and 14 carries for 50 yards in Week 3.
However, in Week 3, Burkhead suffered a significant injury, forcing him out of the lineup until Week 13. That injury allowed Michel to break out in Week 4, and he started an impressive three-game run that represents his most consistent stretch of fantasy excellence to date. Michel totaled 67 carries for 316 yards and four touchdowns. Despite having just one total reception for 12 yards, he averaged 19.7 PPR points per game and was the RB9 during that period.
Unfortunately, after that one bright moment, Michel has never again been a reliable fantasy asset. In Week 7, Michel injured his left knee once again, forcing him out of the game and the next two contests. He returned in Week 10 to limited work, just 11 carries for 31 yards, going into the Patriots Week 11 bye. From Weeks 12-17, Michel was merely an adequate running back. He averaged 10.8 fantasy points per game and was the RB24. He totaled 103 carries for 478 yards and two touchdowns in those six games.
Looking back on Michel’s 2018 regular season, he performed well for a short stretch and decently in other parts. However, he was not used in the passing game often, limiting his PPR upside. He had only seven receptions all year, while pass-catching specialist White had 87. Michel only managed 11 targets. Proving he wasn’t getting looks in the passing game, whether he could excel in that area or not.
After the 2018 fantasy season ended, Michel’s value went on a roller-coaster ride. First, he dominated throughout the Patriots’ 2018 playoff run. In three games, he had 73 carries for 336 yards and six touchdowns. He still wasn’t used as a pass-catcher, having just one reception in total, but he was a key reason that the Patriots won the Super Bowl. Therefore, even though Michel left a bad taste in terms of 2018 fantasy results, his real-life success led most fantasy owners to consider at least giving him another chance in 2019 redraft formats.
Of course, since Michel had a concerning history of knee injuries, the Patriots decided to further muddy the backfield by selecting Damien Harris in the third round of the 2019 NFL Draft. Harris was a highly-touted prospect out of Alabama and had all the talent to challenge Michel for touches immediately. Then, Michel had another still-somewhat mysterious knee scope sometime in late-May and missed practice for a significant period. He returned for a bit, but then went on the PUP list. During all of Michel’s injury troubles, Harris consistently received praise from the Patriots’ coaches and was considered a threat to Michel’s job.
However, all of a sudden the narrative surrounding Michel changed. Praise for Harris completely disappeared from Patriots’ camp reports, and a new narrative emerged. As in college, he impressed the Patriots’ coaches with his pass-catching skills. With Michel finally healthy and being hyped, Harris faded. Ultimately, Michel’s ADP recovered, eventually settling in at RB22 in PPR formats. The Patriots profiled as a solid offense once again behind Tom Brady, so Michel’s price made sense at the time.
Even though Michel played all 16 games in 2019 and fended off the threat of Harris to his job, he completely busted. He finished as only the RB31 in PPR formats, averaging just 9.7 fantasy points per game. His points per game were 43rd among running backs that played at least five games. He still barely contributed in the receiving department, totaling a measly 12 receptions on 20 targets for 94 yards across the entire season. Once again, White dominated receiving from the backfield with 72 catches, while Burkhead even had 27.
Michel was also far less efficient for fantasy in 2019. His yards per carry dropped from 4.5 in 2018 to 3.7 in 2019. The Patriots also decided to yank Michel from the field near the goal line, as he only received 46.2% of their carries inside the five-yard line. Burkhead and Brandon Bolden were both used as goalline backs, severely limiting Michel’s upside.
Going forward to 2020, Brady has left the Patriots, leaving them without a quarterback. They also have no proven wide receiving options outside of Julian Edelman, who is 34. Their offense will likely rank as one of the worst in the league, so relying on Michel for touchdowns is probably a fool’s errand.
Additionally, both White and Burkhead remain in New England to continue stealing passing work from Michel. The Patriots also did use a third-round pick on Harris, so they probably have to give him an opportunity at some point in 2020. I want no part of Michel in this mess, and he’s someone I will not be burned by in my redraft formats. Avoid him completely.
Thanks for reading this article. You can find me on Twitter at @DFF_Justin. I love to interact with anyone in the community, so reach out at any time! I take fantasy questions and help with all formats, so keep sending those questions my way.
