A much-overlooked aspect of Dynasty is value comparison, or comparing the values of Dynasty players to Redraft players and seeing which is worth more or less. You might be thinking “Well, duh! Of course, older players are worth less in Dynasty than Redraft!” to which I agree. But what about Daniel Jones (QB – NYG), who is only 25 years old? Should he be worth more in Redraft or Dynasty? Or how about Amon-Ra St. Brown (WR – DET), who in Redraft has an ADP of WR10, but in Dynasty he’s valued as WR6. Which side more appropriately values players? In this series, which will take place over nine parts (one part for each division and a rookie roundup after the draft), I’ll be evaluating every skill position player on every team and giving my thoughts on their value, whether they are overvalued compared to Redraft or undervalued. Usually, the appropriate value will be somewhere in the middle.
Some ground rules – so this series doesn’t take centuries, I’ll be evaluating one QB, one RB, one TE, and two WRs from each team, giving a total of 20 players every article. I’ll post their Redraft ADP (sourced from Underdog) and their Dynasty ADP (sourced from AdeikoADP, @Adeiko_FF on Twitter). Since there isn’t a large enough sample size of Superflex Redraft ADP, I’ll be evaluating by positional rank, not true ADP. For example, if I state that Patrick Mahomes’ ADP is QB1, that does not mean he is selected at the 1.01 in Redraft, that means he is the first QB taken off the board.
I’ll then pick whether the player’s value lies closer to his Redraft ADP, Dynasty ADP, or somewhere in the middle.
Let’s continue.
Kansas City Chiefs
QB: Patrick Mahomes
Redraft ADP: QB2
Dynasty ADP: QB1
- Mahomes is QB1 for now until eternity.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
RB: Isiah Pacheco
Redraft ADP: RB23
Dynasty ADP: RB23
- Seems like Pacheco is appropriately priced in Dynasty and Redraft, and the masses know better than me.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
TE: Travis Kelce
Redraft ADP: TE1
Dynasty ADP: TE1
- Linked here is an interesting article from former-DFF writer Zach Freed regarding how we think about Kelce, and that he probably still has a few years left as TE1. As much as I want to say I’d prefer Kyle Pitts (TE – ATL) over him, you’re simply not competing seriously with any other TE.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
Redraft ADP: WR69
Dynasty ADP: WR103
- Somehow, he’s the WR1 listed on the Chiefs’ depth chart currently. Funnily enough, there’s not much of a difference between these two ADPs, as the further you go down the board, the less the discrepancies between the two matter. However, I’d sell Marquez for just about anything and reroll for a fourth-round pick. Seems like the Dynasty community has finally wised up to the fact that being attached to Patrick Mahomes does not guarantee value or points.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR2: Kadarius Toney
Redraft ADP: WR35
Dynasty ADP: WR44
- As I said above, being attached to Mahomes doesn’t guarantee points. I’d be selling Toney for almost any player near him in ADP. The only thing keeping his value inflated is the fact that he’s a first-round pick, receiving passes from Mahomes, and one game two seasons ago.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Las Vegas Raiders
QB: Jimmy Garoppolo
Redraft ADP: QB26
Dynasty ADP: QB31
- He’s never been anything more than a useless fantasy asset, and the masses agree. At this point in his career, he’s a QB3.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
RB: Josh Jacobs
Redraft ADP: RB9
Dynasty ADP: RB10
- This one was shocking. I was totally expecting Jacobs’ Redraft ADP to be miles higher than his Dynasty ADP, but they’re only off by one. I believe Jacobs to be a very underpriced Dynasty asset. My logic is people are being ageist, however, he’s only one year older than Travis Etienne (RB – JAX). For the people talking about total touches as the reason to fade, as Jacobs has a lot of “tread on the tires,” the data seems to support age as the determinant for production falling off, not total touches. Either way, I’m buying.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
TE: Michael Mayer
Redraft ADP: TE23
Dynasty ADP: TE9
- Rookie tight ends are where we’re going to continuously find our largest discrepancy between ADPs, as rookie tight ends almost never produce immediately. So aside from that, I think TE9 is a reasonable price for Mayer, but there are some other tight ends lower in ADP that I’d rather have, such as Darren Waller (TE – NYG) or Greg Dulcich (TE – DEN). This class is absolutely loaded with tight end talent.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Davante Adams
Redraft ADP: WR7
Dynasty ADP: WR17
- Davante shows no signs of slowing down, even with the arrival of Jimmy Garoppolo. Obviously, age is a factor, but the production you get from Davante is only matched by three to four wide receivers in the NFL. Smash at Dynasty prices, which is roughly the 1.07. This is a classic case of Dynasty players being too ageist and valuing constantly rebuilding over winning.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
WR2: Jakobi Meyers
Redraft ADP: WR54
Dynasty ADP: WR56
- Meyers has always been a sneaky earner of the lowest-value targets, but after posting 13PPG in 2022, he’s one of the few late-round wide receivers I’d take over an RB in the same ADP range. A good pick at either ADP.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
Los Angeles Chargers
QB: Justin Herbert
Redraft ADP: QB7
Dynasty ADP: QB5
- My QB6, so the middle ADP here fits perfectly. I’d rather have Lamar Jackson (QB – BAL) (QB6 in Dynasty) over him, but he and Trevor Lawrence (QB – JAX) (QB7 in Dynasty) are in the same tier.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
RB: Austin Ekeler
Redraft ADP: RB3
Dynasty ADP: RB9
- Unlike Josh Jacobs, Dynasty managers have more of a right to be ageist with Ekeler, as he’s 27 years old and nearing the so-called “age cliff.” His production is undeniable as he’s the 2022 RB1, but his value should lie around RB7, so I have to say that his Dynasty ADP is closer to his value.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
TE: Gerald Everett
Redraft ADP: TE20
Dynasty ADP: TE28
- While he had some productive games as a waiver wire TE last season, with Quentin Johnston (WR – LAC) joining the pass-catching corps, I don’t see how Everett is anything more than a roster clogger.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
WR1: Keenan Allen
Redraft ADP: WR24
Dynasty ADP: WR40
- After returning from his injury, Keenan showed no signs of slowing down and still demanded a large number of targets. Coupled with the Chargers’ tendency to pass the ball (41.8/game, 2nd in the NFL), Keenan is a great value at WR40 and should provide you with high-mid WR2 value as he’s done his entire career. Obviously, his time in the league is nearing, but that’s priced into his value.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR2: Mike Williams
Redraft ADP: WR20
Dynasty ADP: WR41
- Don’t let a five-game stretch in 2021 fool you – Mike Williams is not a great wide receiver, and the masses seem to have finally caught on. There’s no reason he should be cheaper than Keenan Allen in Redraft ADP, but not Dynasty ADP, as he’s younger than Keenan. This seems to be a case of Dynasty managers being sharper than Redraft consensus.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Bonus! WR3: Quentin Johnston
Redraft ADP: WR43
Dynasty ADP: WR19
- Obviously, the value discrepancy is purely due to being a rookie and being in a crowded receiver room. However, like I said with Keenan, there should be enough passing volume to go around and Quentin has the opportunity to carve out a nice little role for himself by the end of the season, as rookie wide receivers tend to be much more productive Weeks 9-17 (now 18) than 1-8. You can read more about Johnston’s college profile and draft insights here, in this article by Ben Winkler @bwinknfl on Twitter.
- Accuracy verdict: Dynasty
Denver Broncos
QB: Russell Wilson
Redraft ADP: QB18
Dynasty ADP: QB21
- I think Wilson is one of the biggest values in fantasy football currently. We have 10 seasons of Wilson being one of the best football and fantasy football quarterbacks on the planet, and now he has a competent head coach in Sean Payton (HC – DEN). If there’s ever a time for a bounce back, it’s now, especially with these prices.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
RB: Javonte Williams
Redraft ADP: RB29
Dynasty ADP: RB15
- Williams is an interesting case, as he demands a huge amount of targets and seems to be an amazing rusher, but he’s coming off a devastating injury. The data seems to support he won’t be close to ready by Week 1, and may be more of a mid-season-and-on producer, hence his Redraft ADP. I still believe in Javonte, however, I would wait until mid-season to trade for him, as I anticipate his value to drop even more from now once people see him not playing week one.
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
TE: Greg Dulcich
Redraft ADP: TE15
Dynasty ADP: TE16
- His Dynasty ADP has me scratching my head. A rookie posting 10.3 PPG and a 17% TS in one of the worst offenses in the league is valued lower than Cole Kmet (TE – CHI), a tight end who has never done anything and is tied to the lowest passing volume in the league. Surprisingly, Redraft is sharper here, and you should be buying Dulcich at price.
- Accuracy verdict: Redraft
WR1: Jerry Jeudy
Redraft ADP: WR23
Dynasty ADP: WR23
- Seems like Dynasty and Redraft value Jeudy the same, as do I. I think Jeudy is a good value at price and posted some solid underlying metrics (22% TS, 22% TPRR, 2.18 YPRR).
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
WR2: Courtland Sutton
Redraft ADP: WR46
Dynasty ADP: WR54
- I think his value lies in the middle of these two, as Sutton is a talented enough wide receiver and should see a bump in value if Russell Wilson returns to form. At price, I’m still in due to his peripherals (23% TS, 20% TPRR, 1.55 YPRR).
- Accuracy verdict: Middle
Thanks so much for reading! For other informative Dynasty articles, make sure to stay tuned at Dynastyfootballfactory.com. If you liked this article, follow me on Twitter @716DFF, and the whole DFF team @DFF_Dynasty. Check out this thread for some other Dynasty tips, and click here for all of my other articles! Have an amazing day! Cheers!
